Average-Care-Overshoot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$504

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

2.8%

Resolved

16,353

Trades

22,083

lifetime

Volume

$4.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-17

last 10-08 18:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 2% -$504

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 661 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$13	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$13	06-02 11:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:20 UTC	2	$10	20	0	+20	Down	+$0	08-13 04:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:15 UTC	2	$10	20	0	+20	Down	+$0	08-13 04:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	3	$10	20	10	+10	Up	$0	07-21 07:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 05:10 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:40 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$10	10	10	+0	Down	$0	05-20 05:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:35 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:55 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Down	$0	08-13 04:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:45 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 05:15 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 05:00 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:50 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 05:05 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 05:20 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$0	08-13 04:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 07:15 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Down	$0	06-16 13:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 08:00 UTC	2	$10	10	10	+0	Down	$0	06-16 13:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 21:40 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	07-09 07:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 18:30 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	07-08 07:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:30 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	-$5	08-13 04:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 04:25 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	08-13 04:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 04:15 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	-$5	06-29 03:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	07-29 06:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	07-29 05:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	07-29 05:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	07-29 05:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	2	$2	100	0	+100	Down	+$98	07-29 05:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	07-29 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	07-29 06:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	07-29 06:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 18:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd26065…
10-08 18:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x846d3e…
10-08 18:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xace287…
10-08 18:03:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x009cc4…
10-08 17:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb67480…
10-08 17:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xd902e8…
10-08 17:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xc7e3b5…
10-08 17:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x0be5af…
10-08 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xec8dcd…
10-08 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xcae106…
10-08 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xb1b361…
10-08 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x8eeb5d…
10-08 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x6b20b1…
10-08 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x3e63e8…
10-08 17:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x3c7ab2…
10-08 17:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x78b237…
10-08 17:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xc824d2…
10-08 17:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	2¢	$1	0xb53950…
10-08 17:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x8caecb…
10-08 17:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x5688e6…
10-08 17:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0xa09c9b…
10-08 17:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x89659b…
10-08 17:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfb7364…
10-08 17:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7eaf0e…
10-08 17:22:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9d167f…
10-08 17:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x92bde3…
10-08 17:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x49276e…
10-08 17:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4f698e…
10-08 17:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8be72d…
10-08 16:58:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb6bc14…
10-08 16:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x09a2a0…
10-08 16:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa577d2…
10-08 16:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x47ceeb…
10-08 16:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe17142…
10-08 16:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xec7808…
10-08 16:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x00667e…
10-08 16:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9211a7…
10-08 16:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0xd3228d…
10-08 16:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0xd28cd8…
10-08 16:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xaaa069…
10-08 16:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x62a915…
10-08 16:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xf908b0…
10-08 16:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xadcd6a…
10-08 16:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x880fad…
10-08 16:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x741e48…
10-08 16:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x71aa80…
10-08 16:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x234f1e…
10-08 16:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x052cbb…
10-08 16:14:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x0237da…
10-08 16:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x99ec80…
10-08 16:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xe9e796…
10-08 16:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xaed905…
10-08 16:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x707158…
10-08 16:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x68638f…
10-08 16:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x172183…
10-08 15:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfd9d71…
10-08 15:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x6c9c83…
10-08 15:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x078471…
10-08 15:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xe514a7…
10-08 15:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x58af76…
10-08 15:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x552558…
10-08 15:38:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8da04f…
10-08 15:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x4bba03…
10-08 15:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0xc6f5b7…
10-08 15:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x576512…
10-08 15:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x43dbc5…
10-08 15:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x384a24…
10-08 15:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1a277c…
10-08 15:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x54b09b…
10-08 15:17:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x22c2e4…
10-08 15:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x0a7ec5…
10-08 15:08:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x157c6b…
10-08 15:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcd7638…
10-08 14:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x13432d…
10-08 14:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4e7703…
10-08 14:47:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbcbad4…
10-08 14:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	37	2¢	$1	0xd5c996…
10-08 14:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xd5440a…
10-08 14:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0xa985ce…
10-08 14:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9cb472…
10-08 14:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x0c2197…
10-08 14:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4ef92c…
10-08 14:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd7e37b…
10-08 14:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc743c7…
10-08 14:24:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb65804…
10-08 14:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x6cfc8a…
10-08 14:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xa79778…
10-08 14:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0x716ec1…
10-08 14:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x276dde…
10-08 14:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8cbc89…
10-08 14:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x901846…
10-08 13:59:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x705bea…
10-08 13:53:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdb85e0…
10-08 13:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x999983…
10-08 13:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x8485c8…
10-08 13:48:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	34	2¢	$1	0x0db2ac…
10-08 13:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa9199b…
10-08 13:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x01c26a…
10-08 13:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x87fc02…
10-08 13:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x70046c…