Constant-Fail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,990

lifetime

Volume

$5.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 06-12 23:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 73% +$4

Politics

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 415 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$300	357	0	+357	open	—	05-27 20:56
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	6	$16	30	0	+30	open	—	05-19 18:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	6	$15	20	10	+10	open	—	05-18 17:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	12	$15	18	15	+3	open	—	05-17 19:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	3	$14	20	0	+20	open	—	05-22 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	4	$14	28	0	+28	open	—	05-18 11:59
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	5	$12	25	0	+25	open	—	05-19 18:37
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	4	$12	28	0	+28	open	—	05-18 12:04
btc updown 5m 1781177100	4	$12	14	14	+0	open	—	06-11 11:29
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	5	$12	25	0	+25	open	—	05-19 18:05
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	6	$12	24	0	+24	open	—	05-18 12:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	11	$12	34	0	+34	open	—	05-17 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	11	$12	44	0	+44	open	—	05-17 20:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	13	$11	29	0	+29	open	—	05-17 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	4	$11	11	11	+0	open	—	05-18 11:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	11	$11	26	0	+26	open	—	05-17 17:42
sol updown 5m 1781296200	3	$11	18	0	+18	open	—	06-12 20:32
eth updown 5m 1781306700	3	$11	18	0	+18	open	—	06-12 23:28
eth updown 5m 1781307000	3	$11	18	0	+18	open	—	06-12 23:33
eth updown 5m 1781299800	3	$11	18	0	+18	open	—	06-12 21:32
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	4	$11	22	0	+22	open	—	05-18 12:33
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	4	$11	21	0	+21	open	—	05-19 09:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	10	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	05-17 20:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	4	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-18 10:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	10	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	05-17 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	4	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	05-18 11:13
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	5	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	05-18 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	10	$10	26	0	+26	open	—	05-17 19:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	10	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	05-17 19:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	10	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	05-17 20:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 23:51:27	btc updown 5m 1781308200	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xc32ed6…
06-12 23:33:18	eth updown 5m 1781307000	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3f171f…
06-12 23:33:16	eth updown 5m 1781307000	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2edf7b…
06-12 23:32:54	eth updown 5m 1781307000	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x18d7d0…
06-12 23:28:12	sol updown 5m 1781306700	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x87d7ba…
06-12 23:28:10	sol updown 5m 1781306700	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x94532a…
06-12 23:28:07	eth updown 5m 1781306700	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xd4e8f9…
06-12 23:28:06	eth updown 5m 1781306700	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x5d86d3…
06-12 23:28:04	eth updown 5m 1781306700	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x6e0792…
06-12 23:01:42	sol updown 5m 1781305200	Up	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0xd83397…
06-12 23:01:30	sol updown 5m 1781305200	Up	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x60401d…
06-12 23:01:28	sol updown 5m 1781305200	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x358f59…
06-12 22:56:57	sol updown 5m 1781304900	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xbce27a…
06-12 22:56:55	sol updown 5m 1781304900	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x0f307f…
06-12 22:21:30	btc updown 5m 1781302800	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x9fa489…
06-12 21:32:37	eth updown 5m 1781299800	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xb734dd…
06-12 21:32:34	eth updown 5m 1781299800	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xbd0312…
06-12 21:32:22	eth updown 5m 1781299800	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x275dce…
06-12 20:41:30	btc updown 5m 1781296800	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x869d56…
06-12 20:32:09	sol updown 5m 1781296200	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x08b749…
06-12 20:32:07	sol updown 5m 1781296200	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb778b8…
06-12 20:32:07	sol updown 5m 1781296200	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x263f8f…
06-12 20:21:39	eth updown 5m 1781295600	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x8bc57f…
06-12 20:13:01	eth updown 5m 1781295000	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xf0c7b8…
06-12 19:17:48	btc updown 5m 1781291700	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x87ccce…
06-12 19:17:09	sol updown 5m 1781291700	Down	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x710647…
06-12 19:17:09	sol updown 5m 1781291700	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x2a1e55…
06-12 19:11:55	xrp updown 5m 1781291400	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x8ec500…
06-12 19:11:30	btc updown 5m 1781291400	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa6a5fd…
06-12 19:06:34	btc updown 5m 1781291100	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xee13e9…
06-12 18:31:34	sol updown 5m 1781289000	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xd5f7dd…
06-12 18:31:30	btc updown 5m 1781289000	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x16e7ef…
06-12 18:11:49	sol updown 5m 1781287800	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x8d8217…
06-12 18:11:33	sol updown 5m 1781287800	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x995847…
06-12 18:06:34	xrp updown 5m 1781287500	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xc1b46f…
06-12 18:06:31	sol updown 5m 1781287500	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xfa609f…
06-12 18:06:28	eth updown 5m 1781287500	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xd02dc9…
06-12 18:06:27	btc updown 5m 1781287500	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x5241a1…
06-12 18:02:09	sol updown 5m 1781287200	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x29ded4…
06-12 17:56:52	sol updown 5m 1781286900	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xb02b37…
06-12 17:37:45	sol updown 5m 1781285700	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xcced03…
06-12 17:31:36	eth updown 5m 1781285400	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xcf8d8b…
06-12 17:31:34	btc updown 5m 1781285400	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x7b3f17…
06-12 17:22:19	eth updown 5m 1781284800	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9b4f2c…
06-12 17:17:28	btc updown 5m 1781284500	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xcc213a…
06-12 17:11:45	eth updown 5m 1781284200	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x784cb0…
06-12 17:11:42	btc updown 5m 1781284200	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x21348e…
06-12 16:48:19	eth updown 5m 1781282700	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x1db13d…
06-12 16:47:24	sol updown 5m 1781282700	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xb32a4a…
06-12 16:39:07	sol updown 5m 1781282100	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x6cd60f…
06-12 16:38:09	eth updown 5m 1781282100	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xdfca46…
06-12 16:33:45	sol updown 5m 1781281800	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xa0ca27…
06-12 16:33:43	eth updown 5m 1781281800	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xb4e2fd…
06-12 16:33:43	sol updown 5m 1781281800	Up	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0xaead1c…
06-12 15:38:12	eth updown 5m 1781278500	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x3f1cef…
06-12 15:33:03	sol updown 5m 1781278200	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xdd1107…
06-12 15:31:33	btc updown 5m 1781278200	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x7ca1db…
06-12 15:21:34	sol updown 5m 1781277600	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x5e0bc4…
06-12 15:16:52	eth updown 5m 1781277300	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x53c660…
06-12 15:16:34	sol updown 5m 1781277300	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xad0d27…
06-12 15:16:31	btc updown 5m 1781277300	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x28c5db…
06-12 15:11:27	eth updown 5m 1781277000	Up	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x6f487a…
06-12 15:11:27	eth updown 5m 1781277000	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x6f2f5f…
06-12 15:09:16	eth updown 15m 1781276400	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x506261…
06-12 15:06:48	btc updown 5m 1781276700	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x5850ca…
06-12 15:01:42	sol updown 5m 1781276400	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xe69906…
06-12 15:01:39	eth updown 5m 1781276400	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x678102…
06-12 14:41:37	sol updown 5m 1781275200	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x2fb12d…
06-12 14:38:16	btc updown 5m 1781274900	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xc1b4c6…
06-12 14:37:10	eth updown 5m 1781274900	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xe39e5a…
06-12 14:36:51	sol updown 5m 1781274900	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xda5281…
06-12 14:26:46	btc updown 5m 1781274300	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xe8936d…
06-12 14:21:39	sol updown 5m 1781274000	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xb97840…
06-12 14:21:36	eth updown 5m 1781274000	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2d8f89…
06-12 14:21:33	btc updown 5m 1781274000	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xf21bf2…
06-12 14:20:07	btc updown 15m 1781273700	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x12cede…
06-12 14:12:00	sol updown 5m 1781273400	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xec76a3…
06-12 11:29:06	sol updown 5m 1781263500	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc21b2b…
06-11 20:36:36	eth updown 5m 1781210100	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x580ff8…
06-11 20:36:33	btc updown 5m 1781210100	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xbc84d8…
06-11 20:33:31	btc updown 5m 1781209800	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xb4c7a7…
06-11 20:26:34	btc updown 5m 1781209500	Down	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x7326bf…
06-11 20:22:09	sol updown 5m 1781209200	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x38dd4d…
06-11 18:50:30	eth updown 15m 1781203500	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x288d96…
06-11 18:43:54	eth updown 5m 1781203200	Down	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0xa276ca…
06-11 18:37:42	btc updown 5m 1781202900	Down	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xfb7ef5…
06-11 18:35:51	eth updown 5m 1781202900	Down	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xb29f6a…
06-11 18:35:45	eth updown 5m 1781202900	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x7acdb8…
06-11 18:31:10	eth updown 5m 1781202600	Up	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x9955c2…
06-11 18:31:03	eth updown 5m 1781202600	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x2ae518…
06-11 18:26:00	eth updown 5m 1781202300	Up	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x76aa25…
06-11 18:25:55	eth updown 5m 1781202300	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xad4c7d…
06-11 18:22:13	eth updown 5m 1781202000	Down	SELL	3	78¢	$3	0xd04447…
06-11 18:21:39	btc updown 5m 1781202000	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x4a5c75…
06-11 18:21:31	btc updown 5m 1781202000	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x20c8b3…
06-11 18:21:01	eth updown 5m 1781202000	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x5cc5fe…
06-11 18:17:58	eth updown 5m 1781201700	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0xcedd14…
06-11 18:16:10	eth updown 5m 1781201700	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x8467ac…
06-11 18:14:15	btc updown 5m 1781201400	Down	BUY	18	9¢	$2	0xd36f96…
06-11 18:11:57	eth updown 5m 1781201400	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x62b6fb…