Substantial-Analogy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,360

lifetime

Volume

$13.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 07-21 02:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

77% 95% +$0

Sports

18% 100% +$0

Crypto

4% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 02:07:24	mlb wsh col 2026 07 20 f5 total 6pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7c70d2…
07-20 22:39:43	val srg sen1 2026 07 20 game2	Shopify Rebellion Gold	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x001d29…
07-20 16:29:55	atp kopriva buse 2026 07 20 set 2 winner Kopriva vs Buse	Kopriva	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaf631b…
07-19 22:11:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 shots lamine yamal gte3	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7aa4ab…
07-19 18:37:46	mlb cws tor 2026 07 19	Chicago White Sox	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6cc337…
07-19 16:52:24	wta pridank martyno 2026 07 19 set 2 winner Pridankina vs Martynov	Pridankina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2e3276…
07-19 16:25:52	rou1 fuc ffc 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a777b…
07-19 14:22:37	lol t1 gen 2026 07 19	Gen.G	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xedc307…
07-19 13:53:10	cs2 ent2 hon1 2026 07 19	Entropy	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8a6c37…
07-19 13:53:10	cs2 ent2 hon1 2026 07 19	Entropy	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x337e1a…
07-19 01:53:25	wnba por min 2026 07 18 total 175pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2996b0…
07-19 00:42:54	ufc alb10 tom15 2026 07 18 go the distance	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb5b9eb…
07-19 00:41:31	nwsl chi ang 2026 07 18 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdf9d9a…
07-19 00:26:21	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x73cd54…
07-19 00:26:01	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc1ad31…
07-19 00:25:10	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x926bb5…
07-19 00:23:21	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf88f71…
07-19 00:22:33	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x333334…
07-19 00:04:51	ufc aus7 jos55 2026 07 18	Jose Miguel Delgado	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbe1eb0…
07-18 23:11:42	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb00e9e…
07-18 23:08:27	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 assists michael olise gte2	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5ccd83…
07-18 23:06:03	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals jude bellingham gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf7aae0…
07-18 21:40:10	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2030f5…
07-18 18:05:57	nor mol bra 2026 07 18 btts	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x26856a…
07-18 17:15:54	val gm fut1 2026 07 18 map handicap away 1pt5	FUT Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x19da28…
07-18 11:41:15	atp collign cerund 2026 07 18 set handicap home 1pt5	Cerundolo	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x85fd49…
07-18 11:38:57	atp collign cerund 2026 07 18 match total 23pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8e4f41…
07-18 11:34:36	itf dudeney bains 2026 07 18	Alicia Dudeney	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8904df…
07-18 03:15:22	nwsl kcc wav 2026 07 17 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb46ee0…
07-18 02:30:42	bra2 lon bot 2026 07 20 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcb2e51…
07-18 02:30:42	bra2 lon bot 2026 07 20 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8dbd37…
07-17 16:29:01	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2f38d9…
07-17 15:20:01	val te edg1 2026 07 17	EDward Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4c7ea4…
07-17 15:09:10	cs2 nip hero 2026 07 17 game1	Heroic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x709f81…
07-17 08:41:51	val nova jdg 2026 07 17 game2	JD Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5fe044…
07-17 02:41:43	cs2 thunde mf 2026 07 16	THUNDER dOWNUNDER	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb26f33…
07-17 02:39:16	cs2 abyssa rstr 2026 07 16	Rooster	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x169ea6…
07-16 20:54:50	col vir dil 2026 07 16 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1eab91…
07-16 20:04:46	col shk eur 2026 07 16 spread home 1pt5	Europa FC	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x17820f…
07-16 19:59:20	uel dec csk1 2026 07 16 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2ab507…
07-16 16:49:26	cs2 ge3 mw 2026 07 16 game1	Guara Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x262d52…
07-16 14:05:58	itf stosovi radovan 2026 07 16	Nina Radovanovic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9a8253…
07-15 21:18:49	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 assists lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6d8df7…
07-15 20:01:38	amzn close above 255 on july 15 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xebbd93…
07-15 19:06:10	atp busta carabel 2026 07 15 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcbddff…
07-15 17:46:31	atp draxl trotter 2026 07 14	Liam Draxl	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x60b448…
07-15 17:19:35	cs2 wc1 m8 2026 07 15 game1	Gentle Mates	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd277e3…
07-15 16:22:46	col mal vll 2026 07 15 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc902ce…
07-15 15:51:38	val edg1 tyloo 2026 07 15	TYLOO	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x27f239…
07-15 13:49:07	wta amariei jacquem 2026 07 14 set totals 2pt5	Under 2.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6025b1…
07-15 13:04:10	cs2 mana1 innerc 2026 07 15 game2	Inner Circle Academy	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x127684…
07-15 07:25:49	itf maklako laskuto 2026 07 15	Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7abe29…
07-15 07:22:26	itf maklako laskuto 2026 07 15	Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x63fd6e…
07-14 21:13:23	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 shots kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x72e981…
07-14 21:08:52	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x37fed9…
07-14 19:28:46	wta sakella tona 2026 07 14	Miriana Tona	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3281cb…
07-14 19:24:44	ucl tns sf 2026 07 14 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x577cf3…
07-14 15:59:28	wta krejcik tomova 2026 07 13 set 2 winner Krejcikova vs Tomova	Krejcikova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3411a7…
07-14 15:35:59	wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	Weronika Falkowska	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf71063…
07-14 15:32:46	atp muller shevche 2026 07 13 first set total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7974fa…
07-14 15:29:47	wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	Weronika Falkowska	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x28e2fb…
07-14 13:05:44	cs2 innerc don 2026 07 14 game2	Inner Circle Academy	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3c2283…
07-14 13:05:13	cs2 innerc don 2026 07 14	Inner Circle Academy	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfa9868…
07-14 12:10:47	npb sai chi 2026 07 14	Saitama Seibu Lions	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8b8d80…
07-14 11:53:08	crint srb est 2026 07 14	Estonia	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfd5a59…
07-14 09:51:17	atp nagal cretu 2026 07 13	Sumit Nagal	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x22964f…
07-13 18:54:46	over 6m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325643	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdf37da…
07-13 14:47:59	will abnb dip to 144 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2383a7…
07-12 19:06:05	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12 set handicap home 2pt5	Zverev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9de5e3…
07-12 16:32:23	swe bro sir 2026 07 12 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd87f20…
07-12 16:24:19	swe bro sir 2026 07 12 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9be41f…
07-12 15:37:19	itf estevez zarate 2026 07 12	Carlos Maria Zarate	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1b3516…
07-12 14:56:01	swe hif kal 2026 07 12 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x08ed98…
07-12 11:05:58	lol blg hle1 2026 07 12 game4 first blood	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfe5c00…
07-12 05:43:47	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x36d204…
07-12 04:00:22	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5cc406…
07-12 03:52:07	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd6d953…
07-12 00:03:08	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 assists martin degaard gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x72d560…
07-11 23:30:55	ufc kai2 luk12 2026 07 11	Luke Riley	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x002285…
07-11 23:07:47	ufc wan2 tra 2026 07 11	Wang Cong	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb39611…
07-11 19:36:25	cs2 tricks theboy 2026 07 11 game1	TheBoys	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xff833f…
07-11 17:46:34	wta muchova noskova 2026 07 11 set totals 2pt5	Over 2.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x21dbaf…
07-10 21:35:58	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x48b331…
07-10 19:17:07	crict20blast mid sus 2026 07 10	Sussex	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc142ed…
07-10 19:14:50	crict20blast mid sus 2026 07 10	Sussex	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x81d464…
07-10 12:31:38	cs2 5s ae2 2026 07 10 game2	Alter Ego	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x257cfb…
07-09 18:29:59	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x44506d…
07-09 15:28:05	wta muchova gauff 2026 07 09 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x03f964…
07-09 13:18:29	val th1 bbl1 2026 07 09 game2	BBL Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc698c0…
07-09 09:38:32	lol blg hle1 2026 07 09 game1 kill over 36pt5	Under	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x41aa40…
07-09 09:38:32	lol blg hle1 2026 07 09 game1 kill over 36pt5	Under	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x26fe8c…
07-09 00:23:50	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2e94a3…
07-08 17:04:50	val ff3 cgn 2026 07 08 game2	Fire Flux Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbfb49c…
07-08 11:49:59	val dk art 2026 07 08 game1	ARETE	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xad7517…
07-07 20:59:26	ucl vik eto 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd0c007…
07-07 16:27:07	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbd7ecd…
07-07 14:36:11	cs2 inf1 mana1 2026 07 07	ex-MANA eSports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7bbeb5…
07-06 21:09:56	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 penalty shootout	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7a231e…
07-06 04:26:58	lol blg ly 2026 07 05 game1 kill over 27pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1527bd…
07-06 00:06:10	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdc7152…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 22pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-23 13:54
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	4	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 18:11
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	07-14 15:35
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 07:11
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-04 04:48
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 21pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
highest temperature in panama city on april 7 2026 26corbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-11 11:42
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-25 02:00
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 03:59
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 17:11
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:52
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 21:42
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
La Bisbal: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Aliona Bolsova	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-29 21:10
svk1 kom kos 2026 04 11 kos	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-13 16:37
efa whu lee 2026 04 04 whu	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-05 17:41
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 25?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-26 04:42
mlb col hou 2026 04 16 spread home 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 04:05
atp bueno casanov 2026 04 10 first set winner Bueno vs Casanova	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-10 16:30
cwbb colmb byu 2026 04 01	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 01:57
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 8 2026 15corhigher	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-08 11:25
highest temperature in chengdu on april 9 2026 30c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-09 08:59
arg bar cas 2026 04 02 total 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 19:35