Substantial-Analogy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,147

lifetime

Volume

$11.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 06-09 17:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

77% 95% +$0

Sports

18% 100% +$0

Crypto

4% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 17:24:04	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x362ac4…
06-08 21:37:04	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x426f36…
06-08 12:03:39	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x07e1c3…
06-07 21:09:31	mlb cws phi 2026 06 07	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x18d860…
06-07 17:38:58	mlbb ts ver 2026 06 07 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe4a8df…
06-07 16:59:27	cs2 bb3 m80 2026 06 07	BetBoom Team	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe60487…
06-07 13:09:43	sc2 hero cure 2026 06 07	herO	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x49d401…
06-06 23:09:46	codmw tex riyf 2026 06 06	OpTic Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x63dbdc…
06-06 22:08:30	mlb oak hou 2026 06 06 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc33679…
06-06 14:19:19	lol jdg blg 2026 06 06 game handicap home 1pt5	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd05a2f…
06-06 11:32:36	itf jovanov davies 2026 06 06	Allegra Korpanec Davies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xca3cf6…
06-06 11:32:36	itf haavist petruze 2026 06 06	Lucie Petruzelova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5855a7…
06-05 15:45:21	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05 set handicap away 2pt5	Mensik	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcbec3d…
06-05 01:53:15	fda approves arvinas vepdegestrant 06 05 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8760db…
06-04 14:24:33	itf spiteri pace 2026 06 04	Dalila Spiteri	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4b8115…
06-04 04:48:09	crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	Mali	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x587dc2…
06-03 16:04:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x66de1a…
06-03 11:31:44	T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman	Oman	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x704602…
06-03 06:26:04	T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait	Malaysia	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x88a80e…
06-03 04:48:46	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	Mali	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd1869f…
06-03 04:48:46	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	Mali	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8edf2b…
06-02 22:56:07	Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner	NRG Academy	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe190f4…
06-02 15:24:31	Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Carlota Martinez Cirez	Mayar Sherif	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcdf66a…
06-01 18:35:49	Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf15cdc…
06-01 17:58:51	Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb4b630…
06-01 14:41:31	will spy reach 750 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9b9bf6…
06-01 01:16:36	Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1a0423…
05-31 19:50:14	Switzerland vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xce39a0…
05-31 19:09:25	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd3bfbc…
05-31 19:00:07	Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x940721…
05-31 18:49:28	Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Bencic (+1.5)	Bencic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x15463b…
05-31 15:17:50	Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2902a4…
05-31 14:19:36	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FRAGgg Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x215e8a…
05-30 22:09:43	San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9e6eba…
05-30 19:09:19	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc80c76…
05-30 15:52:37	T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh	Scotland	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x376ee2…
05-30 14:25:16	PAOK vs. Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8fdb34…
05-30 13:13:43	Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)	Svajda	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x21698d…
05-30 04:47:55	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	August Holmgren	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7f3b71…
05-30 04:47:55	Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x77e1e1…
05-29 21:58:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3bc45b…
05-29 21:05:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a46d4…
05-29 21:05:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3bc856…
05-29 21:01:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd55698…
05-29 20:26:11	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xced20b…
05-29 19:44:43	Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x43f451…
05-29 17:27:50	Spread: Gambia (-1.5)	IR Iran	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x272781…
05-29 13:57:04	Borges vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc7392b…
05-28 21:48:41	Panathinaikos vs. PAOK	Panathinaikos	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1481c9…
05-28 16:52:14	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb84277…
05-28 16:31:02	Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x44f51c…
05-28 16:31:00	Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xec72ec…
05-28 16:31:00	Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x05d848…
05-28 16:30:55	Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb5950d…
05-28 12:33:00	Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Cerundolo	Sinner	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4aef23…
05-28 02:32:34	Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3952e1…
05-27 16:00:34	Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1d0959…
05-27 14:43:44	Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x816c3c…
05-27 02:14:32	Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x35a72e…
05-26 20:01:34	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf0d0c2…
05-26 14:03:24	Set Handicap: Vacherot (-2.5) vs Faurel (+2.5)	Faurel	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8818cc…
05-26 13:17:57	Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc9a61d…
05-25 18:11:53	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5c27ea…
05-25 11:22:26	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x35dfa2…
05-25 08:09:11	T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A	New Zealand A	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x97c852…
05-25 04:48:31	Will 1+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x150c76…
05-25 01:24:37	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x15f44f…
05-24 22:02:01	Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x06117b…
05-24 20:49:38	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3dfad4…
05-24 19:25:18	Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci	Quentin Halys	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x885f8f…
05-24 18:36:45	Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x14cf0b…
05-24 15:30:05	AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc399e8…
05-24 08:02:48	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x36e668…
05-24 04:52:10	Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)	Colorado Rockies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x39974f…
05-24 00:32:06	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2c4f00…
05-23 16:16:07	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner	ThunderTalk Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcb3541…
05-23 12:56:33	Nedic vs. Sanchis: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x95df99…
05-23 01:24:47	Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x35fe5e…
05-22 20:37:17	Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)	ACF Fiorentina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf99ff3…
05-21 20:07:52	Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3791ed…
05-21 14:25:01	Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Joint/Perez vs Eikeri/Gleason	Eikeri/Gleason	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0bba77…
05-21 04:00:49	Spread: Cusco FC (-1.5)	Independiente Medellín	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6c928c…
05-21 02:31:57	SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x666051…
05-20 21:53:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x05da66…
05-20 21:22:33	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	August Holmgren	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xac910c…
05-20 21:17:30	Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x30aeb7…
05-20 19:20:27	GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anhelina Kalinina	Anhelina Kalinina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd57381…
05-20 19:13:55	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xede57c…
05-20 18:22:27	Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)	Fokina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9ce6dc…
05-20 11:43:41	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Ugo Blanchet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8c0c34…
05-20 09:47:41	First Blood in Game 1?	T1	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xff1ba4…
05-20 04:04:51	Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 170.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7f956b…
05-19 23:13:46	Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)	Atlanta Braves	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcc5d57…
05-19 23:13:46	Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)	Atlanta Braves	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x891a4e…
05-19 20:50:08	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8da410…
05-19 20:02:49	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Yunchaokete Bu	Emilio Nava	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0f4669…
05-19 14:13:31	GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Ajla Tomljanovic	Sada Nahimana	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x48ecf2…
05-19 13:29:18	ITF Tsaghkadzor: Mirjana Jovanovic vs Armine Yesaian	Armine Yesaian	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1904f3…
05-19 13:12:27	KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers	Kia Tigers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe17ade…
05-19 12:21:24	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	Ilya Ivashka	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x055522…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Oblong-Swath 0x63a3…0683	770	$7.83K	792	06-08 21:37
Separate-Retreat 0x641e…e947	750	$3.82K	769	06-08 21:37
Beneficial-Rain 0x9d7b…7871	744	$7.57K	763	06-09 17:52
Hasty-Wall 0x8a1e…7f95	744	$3.80K	764	06-08 21:37
Inconsequential-Watercress 0xec7e…33b3	744	$3.80K	764	06-08 21:37
Puzzled-Chestnut 0x4f06…7f3d	743	$7.56K	761	06-09 17:38
Trusting-Look 0xccfb…5c9c	742	$7.56K	761	06-08 21:37
Grumpy-Runway 0x80cd…d163	736	$7.51K	761	06-09 17:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 21pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 22pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	4	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-23 13:54
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 18:11
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-04 04:48
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 07:11
highest temperature in panama city on april 7 2026 26corbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-11 11:42
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 03:59
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 17:11
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 21:42
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:52
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
svk1 kom kos 2026 04 11 kos	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-13 16:37
efa whu lee 2026 04 04 whu	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-05 17:41
mlb col hou 2026 04 16 spread home 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 04:05
atp bueno casanov 2026 04 10 first set winner Bueno vs Casanova	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-10 16:30
highest temperature in chengdu on april 9 2026 30c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-09 08:59
cs2 k271 100t 2026 04 03 game1	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-03 13:14
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 25?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-26 04:42
nba min den 2026 04 18	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-18 22:38
La Bisbal: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Aliona Bolsova	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-29 21:10
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers	1	$10	10	0	+10	Texas Rangers	+$0	05-10 20:59
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	06-08 21:37
Bitcoin above 76,400 on April 30, 8AM ET?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-30 12:30