Substantial-Analogy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.6%

Resolved

1,872

Trades

1,938

lifetime

Volume

$18.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 11-01 02:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 215 days

Categories

Other

79% 98% -$5

Sports

16% 100% +$3

Crypto

3% 97% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	07-31 21:47
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-30 14:02
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	08-13 01:02
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-08-03?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	08-03 23:14
highest temperature in panama city on april 7 2026 26corbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-11 11:42
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-25 02:00
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 21pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	Over	+$0	04-24 02:46
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	03-23 13:54
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	The Otter Side	+$0	05-25 18:11
wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	2	$20	10	10	+0	Weronika Falkowska	+$0	07-14 15:35
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	4	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-24 15:37
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5	4	$20	10	10	+0	Over	+$0	05-28 16:30
chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 05:32
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-01 01:24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-02 01:35
Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-12 22:39
Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 0 Salford City FC?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 16:30
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-09 07:11
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-01 23:08
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	4	$20	10	10	+0	Over	+$0	05-30 04:47
Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	3	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-24 15:36
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 22pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	Under	+$0	04-24 02:46
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	3	$20	10	10	+0	Mali	+$0	06-04 04:48
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	August Holmgren	+$0	05-30 04:47
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	03-31 03:59
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	Over	$0	04-22 17:37
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$0	05-05 15:54
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 01:52
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	04-24 17:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 02:36:30	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x506d56…
11-01 01:38:52	Hawks vs. Pelicans	Pelicans	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x88a626…
11-01 01:09:22	UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)	Luana Santos	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3a70b3…
11-01 00:43:18	76ers vs. Hornets	76ers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2a8417…
11-01 00:04:13	UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card)	Dakota Hope	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x563b0b…
10-31 23:19:55	Florida vs. Georgia	Georgia	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x963f28…
10-31 16:00:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8f7f40…
10-30 22:23:21	Queretaro: Tatjana Maria vs Valeriya Strakhova	Tatjana Maria	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x8b222a…
10-30 16:23:04	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x23f569…
10-29 15:14:20	Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x726c30…
10-27 13:12:03	Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew	Xinran Sun	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf62d39…
10-25 09:31:02	Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov	Semen Pankin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x02bac2…
10-24 19:01:02	European Open: Arthur Fils vs Jan-Lennard Struff	Jan-Lennard Struff	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xdac84b…
10-24 13:22:14	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xff0432…
10-24 13:22:14	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x00ddbb…
10-23 16:52:27	Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4eb5b2…
10-23 06:10:02	Japan Women's Open: Talia Gibson vs Ashlyn Krueger	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc81bad…
10-22 20:15:33	Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima	Brandon Nakashima	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x95e8dd…
10-21 21:00:20	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb497b4…
10-21 17:04:05	Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Felix Balshaw	Corentin Moutet	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc378f8…
10-20 18:47:42	Will Sabah FK win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe3fb67…
10-20 18:35:32	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x61abbb…
10-19 18:51:59	Lyon Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Moise Kouame	Moise Kouame	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb17228…
10-18 03:35:39	Notre Dame vs. BYU	BYU	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x937742…
10-15 20:32:47	W35 Heraklion: Juliette Mazzoni vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru	Juliette Mazzoni	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb9b5cb…
10-15 19:37:40	Santa Cruz 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Manuel La Serna	Juan Manuel La Serna	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4e6503…
10-15 15:13:04	Wuhan Tennis Open: Ann Li vs Janice Tjen	Ann Li	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb6b26c…
10-14 20:56:43	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2bbf41…
10-14 11:41:25	atp medvede tsitsip 2026 10 13	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf2d4f3…
10-13 20:58:58	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcdbc11…
10-13 15:53:27	wta pohanko wan 2026 10 13	Mia Pohankova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x13999c…
10-13 14:15:20	Catania: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Federico Bondioli	Enrico Dalla Valle	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9a27cd…
10-13 01:33:00	Thunder vs. Hawks	Hawks	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xca6e90…
10-12 16:35:42	Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald	Lorenzo Carboni	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0efce4…
10-12 09:09:37	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf6eb99…
10-11 20:16:07	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Bengals	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3bc260…
10-11 10:49:50	Olbia: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Ryan Peniston	Dimitar Kuzmanov	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa3d909…
10-11 10:26:11	Olbia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Viktor Durasovic	Viktor Durasovic	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4d8c3a…
10-11 04:59:57	Kings vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x430079…
10-10 11:08:43	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Zachary Svajda	Learner Tien	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcd6ea3…
10-10 10:20:13	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta	Pablo Carreno Busta	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xb7a060…
10-09 02:09:53	Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe6dd7d…
10-07 14:42:13	Villena: Edas Butvilas vs Max Hans Rehberg	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb92822…
10-07 13:53:46	Samsun: Polina Iatcenko vs Dalma Galfi	Polina Iatcenko	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xcfe846…
10-07 10:16:24	Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova	Anna Blinkova	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1c9aef…
10-07 06:29:17	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	Adrian Mannarino	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcc9f0d…
10-06 20:46:23	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd2a447…
10-06 16:07:30	Palermo: Kalin Ivanovski vs Alejandro Moro Canas	Alejandro Moro Canas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5f0b59…
10-04 23:23:08	LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3fb2e6…
10-04 20:17:38	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x79f24a…
10-04 07:45:10	Wuning 3: Ryan Seggerman vs Naoki Tajima	Ryan Seggerman	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7d847f…
10-03 14:50:27	China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva	Alina Charaeva	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x99c378…
10-03 06:09:56	Montana State vs. Idaho	Idaho	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x225381…
10-03 05:54:29	wta sakkari hunter 2026 10 01	Maria Sakkari	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf76179…
10-03 02:52:57	Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe03e1a…
10-02 18:14:00	Columbus: Darwin Blanch vs Dylan Dietrich	Dylan Dietrich	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x63866f…
10-02 14:15:29	Will Bolivia win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6cd652…
10-02 14:12:36	Will Bolivia vs. Gambia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9f2693…
10-01 20:46:21	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6a646c…
10-01 20:36:06	Will Malta win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe2dec5…
10-01 20:36:03	Will Wales vs. Norway end in a draw?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x2010bf…
10-01 12:04:30	atp grieksp rublev 2026 09 29	Andrey Rublev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5446ba…
10-01 11:34:20	wta dart qu 2026 09 30	Harriet Dart	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x227e84…
10-01 05:17:18	mlb chc sd 2026 09 30	San Diego Padres	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd93cf6…
10-01 04:48:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd9b1e2…
09-30 23:54:54	Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdff92c…
09-30 02:03:00	Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs	Canadiens	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1fd4b6…
09-29 13:59:02	atp cretu rocha 2026 09 28	Henrique Rocha	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x99a978…
09-29 13:18:54	atp giustin sperle 2026 09 29	Lorenzo Giustino	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xcf397a…
09-29 13:16:02	atp medvede rublev 2026 09 29	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcf7612…
09-29 00:39:14	atp dickers pereir 2026 09 28	Jose Pereira	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb9ec1d…
09-28 17:00:08	atp angelin johns 2026 09 28	Lorenzo Angelini	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x86080e…
09-28 10:07:56	atp vallejo daniel 2026 09 28	Adolfo Vallejo	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2e4674…
09-27 20:12:29	Chargers vs. Bills	Bills	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x55df8e…
09-27 14:05:48	atp droguet mayot 2026 09 27	Titouan Droguet	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x333772…
09-27 13:31:21	atp harri hurkacz 2026 09 27	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc82713…
09-27 12:29:14	atp safiull bu 2026 09 27	Roman Safiullin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x467cef…
09-27 02:41:41	Kansas State vs. Cincinnati	Cincinnati	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xdd3fc6…
09-27 00:21:29	atp legout marcond 2026 09 26	Igor Ribeiro Marcondes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcbc37e…
09-26 23:23:48	Oklahoma vs. Georgia	Georgia	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6bd62e…
09-26 20:01:35	Columbia vs. Georgetown	Columbia	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5b4de6…
09-26 19:53:26	Texas vs. Tennessee	Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x799e32…
09-26 19:22:33	Virginia Tech vs. Boston College	Virginia Tech	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4d8817…
09-26 16:13:14	cs2 hero sng2 2026 09 26	Heroic	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xac1fbe…
09-26 16:13:14	cs2 hero sng2 2026 09 26	Heroic	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9c5164…
09-26 16:13:03	cs2 hero sng2 2026 09 26	Heroic	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x672694…
09-26 12:18:23	wta fernand chwalin 2026 09 26	Leylah Fernandez	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd122f2…
09-25 23:33:47	Army vs. Temple	Army	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x147231…
09-25 22:56:38	atp prado barrena 2026 09 25	Alex Barrena	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa5b7c3…
09-25 10:14:42	atp marozsa daniel 2026 09 25	Fabian Marozsan	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x689191…
09-24 20:45:15	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfc04a4…
09-24 09:42:33	Singapore Open: Xinyu Wang vs Joanna Garland	Xinyu Wang	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x58e480…
09-23 22:37:43	mlb min sf 2026 09 23	Minnesota Twins	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa0bdc6…
09-23 16:19:06	bitcoin above 84k on september 23 2026	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a5842…
09-23 04:45:05	wta tararud park 2026 09 22	Lanlana Tararudee	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x165b01…
09-21 18:44:37	wta naito aksu 2026 09 21	Ayla Aksu	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xce436a…
09-21 14:21:24	Buenos Aires 2: Fermin Tenti vs Mariano Kestelboim	Fermin Tenti	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6225bc…
09-21 02:19:43	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x51d744…
09-20 22:25:41	Browns vs. Buccaneers	Browns	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x716db0…
09-20 13:20:36	Will Hannover 96 vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfdeda2…