Substantial-Analogy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,427

lifetime

Volume

$14.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 08-10 04:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

77% 95% +$0

Sports

18% 100% +$0

Crypto

4% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 04:42:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4b172e…
08-09 20:20:21	will the next claude opus model debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher 20260723184439897	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x52620d…
08-08 16:47:04	cs2 saw2 eac 2026 08 08	SAW	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4561c1…
08-08 15:37:54	cs2 blackp cs1 2026 08 08 game2	CYBERSHOKE Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc62436…
08-07 19:04:16	crint sco2 can2 2026 08 07	Scotland	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbdd345…
08-07 09:55:40	itf arifull haeumle 2026 08 07	Arina Arifullina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd87c86…
08-05 20:58:21	ionq quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 05 2026 neg0pt59	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x16a2b1…
08-05 15:36:18	itf mecarel dagosti 2026 08 05	Stefano D'agostino	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x177218…
08-05 01:43:51	atp tiafoe cilic 2026 08 04	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0a5281…
08-04 20:48:29	spcx quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 04 2026 neg0pt29	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x59e129…
08-04 13:07:32	cs2 finish mf 2026 08 04	Mindfreak	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf072cc…
08-04 12:32:44	kbo kiw lot 2026 08 04	Lotte Giants	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb85c41…
08-04 11:21:36	atp biryuko inchaus 2026 08 03	Paul Inchauspe	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfd8d5f…
08-04 00:23:24	itf catanza okalova 2026 08 03	Martina Okalova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbde116…
08-02 07:57:47	bitcoin above 63000 on august 1 2026 9pm et	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x708a41…
08-01 18:37:00	cs2 ast10 mouz 2026 08 01	MOUZ	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x579d4c…
07-31 21:47:33	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9ec8d9…
07-31 21:04:57	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x961bb4…
07-31 12:17:21	npb yom yok 2026 07 31	Yomiuri Giants	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x779fc8…
07-31 05:27:14	itf reed crawley 2026 07 30	Fiona Crawley	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb33a04…
07-30 21:40:35	wti up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcb8b58…
07-30 04:46:23	wta jone brengle 2026 07 29	Emerson Jones	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1b52ab…
07-29 20:01:12	mlb atl nym 2026 07 29	New York Mets	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x78634f…
07-29 18:40:45	mlb phi mia 2026 07 29	Miami Marlins	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x77e062…
07-29 16:21:56	itf stusek cembran 2026 07 29	Julia Stusek	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbd194c…
07-29 14:38:42	will wti reach 85 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xca092c…
07-29 13:26:41	lol drx ns 2026 07 29 game2 kill over 30pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd183e5…
07-29 13:03:30	wta bertea monnet 2026 07 29	Carole Monnet	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x344f17…
07-29 11:47:27	itf mujakic marysko 2026 07 29	Vincent Marysko	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x090254…
07-28 20:17:25	itf amyzhu hrastar 2026 07 28	Amy Zhu	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc73b47…
07-28 13:09:44	cs2 blackp bbp 2026 07 28 game2	Black Phoenix	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x765844…
07-28 10:51:28	atp kumasak bax 2026 07 27	Florent Bax	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5396f8…
07-28 09:47:34	wta samson breaz 2026 07 28	Laura Samson	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x361908…
07-28 02:09:07	chl2 esp rec 2026 07 27 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x38792a…
07-27 19:40:55	nor rbk ffk 2026 07 27 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbb8466…
07-27 19:40:04	nor rbk ffk 2026 07 27 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x161027…
07-27 19:24:37	nor rbk ffk 2026 07 27 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x905c88…
07-27 19:04:46	lol ap bld 2026 07 27 game1	Bulldog Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x50d21a…
07-27 17:10:46	lol rs voldae 2026 07 27 game1	The Ruddy Sack	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbfc9c5…
07-27 12:38:13	hok lgd tesa 2026 07 27 game3	TOP Esports Armor	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcf77c9…
07-27 01:55:18	argpn qui cc 2026 07 26 spread home 2pt5	CA Colegiales	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1d8fa2…
07-26 22:08:09	bul lok ses 2026 07 26 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x126108…
07-26 20:05:54	val th1 kc3 2026 07 26	Karmine Corp	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa53aa3…
07-26 19:11:15	cs2 100t ts7 2026 07 26 game2 round handicap ts7 6pt5	100 Thieves	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4b62fa…
07-26 18:47:58	atp svajda hewitt 2026 07 26	Cruz Hewitt	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x81b4b7…
07-26 14:48:28	cs2 3dmax fut 2026 07 26 game2	3DMAX	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc37c6c…
07-26 14:41:22	lol tt edg 2026 07 26 game2	ThunderTalk Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xeef7cd…
07-26 14:38:49	chi ron bgu 2026 07 26 btts	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x64b4e8…
07-26 13:40:21	cs2 newvis mana1 2026 07 26 total games 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xab3aec…
07-26 11:31:30	auc klu vic 2026 07 26 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x97b7d1…
07-26 05:56:31	boxing anthony joshua vspt kristian prenga 20260724153052168	Joshua	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8860fe…
07-25 21:41:12	atp blockx darderi 2026 07 25 set handicap away 1pt5	Blockx	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf23741…
07-25 20:48:45	rou1 din ucc 2026 07 25 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdef901…
07-25 20:33:58	rus spa rod 2026 07 25 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd21475…
07-25 15:31:16	cs2 tl1 g2 2026 07 25 game1 round handicap g2 3pt5	Liquid	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe502c4…
07-25 14:03:00	cricecsch gen cos 2026 07 25	Cossonay CC	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0f56f0…
07-24 17:51:21	crichundredw bir tre 2026 07 24	Trent Rockets	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc480ac…
07-24 17:51:21	crichundredw bir tre 2026 07 24	Trent Rockets	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x72bed5…
07-24 17:12:55	crint nam4 hon5 2026 07 24	Namibia	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xad586f…
07-24 14:48:30	wta sherif badosa 2026 07 24 set totals 2pt5	Over 2.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2c2108…
07-24 14:42:01	wta sherif badosa 2026 07 24 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1c8874…
07-24 12:28:45	crint tza2 uga2 2026 07 24	Uganda	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xec50a1…
07-24 05:32:36	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6f0653…
07-24 01:56:42	sud bol gre 2026 07 23 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfc1eec…
07-23 12:31:54	cricgermant10 mtv mas 2026 07 23	MTV Herrenhausen	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe75178…
07-23 01:13:03	sud dim vas 2026 07 22 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf4cf6b…
07-22 15:44:49	itf simione gadient 2026 07 22	Nicole Gadient	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x970735…
07-21 02:07:24	mlb wsh col 2026 07 20 f5 total 6pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7c70d2…
07-20 22:39:43	val srg sen1 2026 07 20 game2	Shopify Rebellion Gold	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x001d29…
07-20 16:29:55	atp kopriva buse 2026 07 20 set 2 winner Kopriva vs Buse	Kopriva	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaf631b…
07-19 22:11:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 shots lamine yamal gte3	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7aa4ab…
07-19 18:37:46	mlb cws tor 2026 07 19	Chicago White Sox	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6cc337…
07-19 16:52:24	wta pridank martyno 2026 07 19 set 2 winner Pridankina vs Martynov	Pridankina	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2e3276…
07-19 16:25:52	rou1 fuc ffc 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a777b…
07-19 14:22:37	lol t1 gen 2026 07 19	Gen.G	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xedc307…
07-19 13:53:10	cs2 ent2 hon1 2026 07 19	Entropy	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8a6c37…
07-19 13:53:10	cs2 ent2 hon1 2026 07 19	Entropy	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x337e1a…
07-19 01:53:25	wnba por min 2026 07 18 total 175pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2996b0…
07-19 00:42:54	ufc alb10 tom15 2026 07 18 go the distance	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb5b9eb…
07-19 00:41:31	nwsl chi ang 2026 07 18 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdf9d9a…
07-19 00:26:21	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x73cd54…
07-19 00:26:01	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc1ad31…
07-19 00:25:10	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x926bb5…
07-19 00:23:21	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf88f71…
07-19 00:22:33	bra2 acg ath 2026 07 20 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x333334…
07-19 00:04:51	ufc aus7 jos55 2026 07 18	Jose Miguel Delgado	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbe1eb0…
07-18 23:11:42	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb00e9e…
07-18 23:08:27	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 assists michael olise gte2	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5ccd83…
07-18 23:06:03	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 goals jude bellingham gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf7aae0…
07-18 21:40:10	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2030f5…
07-18 18:05:57	nor mol bra 2026 07 18 btts	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x26856a…
07-18 17:15:54	val gm fut1 2026 07 18 map handicap away 1pt5	FUT Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x19da28…
07-18 11:41:15	atp collign cerund 2026 07 18 set handicap home 1pt5	Cerundolo	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x85fd49…
07-18 11:38:57	atp collign cerund 2026 07 18 match total 23pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8e4f41…
07-18 11:34:36	itf dudeney bains 2026 07 18	Alicia Dudeney	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8904df…
07-18 03:15:22	nwsl kcc wav 2026 07 17 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb46ee0…
07-18 02:30:42	bra2 lon bot 2026 07 20 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcb2e51…
07-18 02:30:42	bra2 lon bot 2026 07 20 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8dbd37…
07-17 16:29:01	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2f38d9…
07-17 15:20:01	val te edg1 2026 07 17	EDward Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4c7ea4…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 07:11
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	07-31 21:47
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 22pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 18:11
highest temperature in panama city on april 7 2026 26corbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-11 11:42
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	07-14 15:35
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 21pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-23 13:54
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	4	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-04 04:48
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-25 02:00
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 03:59
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 17:11
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 21:42
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:52
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
rou1 din ucc 2026 07 25 first half total 1pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	07-25 20:48
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 8 2026 15corhigher	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-08 11:25
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers	1	$10	10	0	+10	Texas Rangers	+$0	05-10 20:59
cs2 k271 100t 2026 04 03 game1	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-03 13:14
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 25?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-25 07:07
atp tiafoe cilic 2026 08 04	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	08-05 01:43
highest temperature in chicago on april 1 2026 38 39f	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-01 05:57
arg bar cas 2026 04 02 total 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 19:35
nba min den 2026 04 18	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-18 22:38