Substantial-Analogy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,229

lifetime

Volume

$12.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 06-30 18:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

76% 95% +$0

Sports

19% 100% +$0

Crypto

4% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 19:03:34	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcea3e2…
06-30 18:01:01	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x255057…
06-30 10:12:47	cs2 don for10 2026 06 30 game2	Donstu Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x348edb…
06-30 04:26:02	mlb sf ari 2026 06 29	Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe0ee54…
06-30 04:16:13	will morocco reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120744	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8570be…
06-29 23:57:28	mlb pit phi 2026 06 29 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x48db67…
06-29 22:43:19	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 goals jamal musiala gte1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6a398b…
06-29 13:52:43	will nvda reach 196 by june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5bb38f…
06-28 17:02:07	cs2 6666 ast 2026 06 28	ASTRAL	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a3a4d…
06-28 03:59:31	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x228e81…
06-28 03:59:13	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x60250c…
06-28 03:00:53	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc4d0a3…
06-27 18:40:32	codmw par g2m 2026 06 27	Paris Gentle Mates	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6dc15e…
06-27 18:05:50	ufc naz mat36 2026 06 27 totals 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7d79c3…
06-27 14:58:56	codmw tex g2m 2026 06 27	OpTic Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5cf822…
06-27 03:05:29	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf2495a…
06-27 01:32:26	mlb phi nym 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	New York Mets	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1920b9…
06-26 18:19:32	crict20blastw ham yor 2026 06 26	Hampshire	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf656ee…
06-26 11:54:02	wta maria ostapen 2026 06 26	Tatjana Maria	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x83581a…
06-26 10:23:05	r6siege pozy edg 2026 06 26 game2	EDward Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x242d35…
06-26 00:55:49	fifwc tun nld 2026 06 25 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x400787…
06-25 22:21:10	fifwc ecu ger 2026 06 25 assists florian wirtz gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0cb7dc…
06-25 02:00:28	alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x611da5…
06-25 01:49:26	alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6818b2…
06-25 00:07:17	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 spread away 1pt5	Brazil	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x649f3e…
06-25 00:05:34	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 corners team home 6pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9caec4…
06-24 19:59:05	itf delattr torcq 2026 06 24 set handicap away 1pt5	Delattre	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3f8fe3…
06-24 12:34:52	kbo kia kiw 2026 06 24	Kia Tigers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5586c6…
06-23 20:00:58	arcium fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xca369d…
06-23 19:46:35	val fks1 mir 2026 06 23 game1	MIR	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x026d63…
06-23 18:25:07	wta kinoshi tomova 2026 06 24	Hayu Kinoshita	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x69f5e1…
06-23 12:40:52	kbo sam lg 2026 06 23	LG Twins	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc0676c…
06-22 17:40:32	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9951cb…
06-22 00:15:13	fifwc ury cvi 2026 06 21 spread home 1pt5	Cabo Verde	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x584df2…
06-21 04:54:50	mlb bal lad 2026 06 20 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x77f35e…
06-21 01:58:17	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 corners total 9pt5	Under	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x73d58f…
06-21 01:57:38	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 corners total 9pt5	Under	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xf3a1c5…
06-21 01:57:38	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 corners total 9pt5	Under	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x2744ad…
06-20 20:06:32	mlb cin nyy 2026 06 20 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x03532f…
06-20 19:15:44	wnba ind atl 2026 06 20 total 177pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x624de5…
06-20 05:14:16	Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf9b710…
06-20 02:53:52	mlb stl kc 2026 06 19 total 12pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1c06a9…
06-20 02:37:08	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 spread home 2pt5	Brazil	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbbcbbf…
06-20 01:49:02	mlb cin nyy 2026 06 19 spread home 1pt5	New York Yankees	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbe4995…
06-20 00:02:07	fifwc sco mar 2026 06 19 goals brahim diaz gte1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5a9c3b…
06-19 15:45:31	val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game2	Paper Rex	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x553e3e…
06-18 22:59:28	val yfp nrga 2026 06 18 game1	YFP Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbc881b…
06-18 04:12:07	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 goals luis diaz gte1	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4eff41…
06-17 19:26:19	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc93af0…
06-17 19:25:28	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte3	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x92c4bc…
06-17 19:17:58	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x57129c…
06-17 19:05:34	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 corners total 10pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x76cbbc…
06-17 19:04:16	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	DR Congo	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0e6b82…
06-17 18:09:10	mlb mia phi 2026 06 17 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x41b354…
06-17 16:10:04	bitcoin above 72k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb66e73…
06-17 16:07:44	bitcoin above 70k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x21bd02…
06-17 16:06:26	bitcoin above 68k on june 17 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x83b4db…
06-16 13:45:50	nik up or down on june 16 2026	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x637eab…
06-16 12:37:39	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x96efd7…
06-16 02:29:40	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x36e903…
06-15 21:02:45	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5878a0…
06-15 18:27:52	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd401cf…
06-15 12:41:42	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 9 15	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8fa382…
06-15 01:32:12	ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	Diego Lopes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb89828…
06-14 19:57:39	cs2 g2 lgc 2026 06 14	G2	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x293869…
06-14 19:06:39	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa3254c…
06-14 19:02:24	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 second half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb86bd5…
06-13 11:58:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbe20f7…
06-13 09:02:46	cs2 fnc minken 2026 06 13	fnatic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd0609c…
06-13 01:55:00	mlb phi mil 2026 06 12 spread home 1pt5	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6e72b7…
06-12 21:42:21	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x515bbd…
06-12 21:01:31	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 team total home 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x79a8eb…
06-12 20:37:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6cceef…
06-12 20:26:46	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3865a5…
06-12 20:19:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe05f1b…
06-12 20:17:07	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa2cc92…
06-12 13:30:04	bkvtb zen lok 2026 06 12	Lokomotiv Kuban	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0473da…
06-12 04:00:12	fifwc kr cze 2026 06 11 goals son heungmin gte3	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x95b7ba…
06-11 22:13:42	wti closes above 86 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xce1720…
06-11 21:14:07	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 spread home 1pt5	Mexico	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x360dee…
06-11 16:53:27	lol g2nord gal 2026 06 11 game1	G2 NORD	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6d8523…
06-10 20:16:55	mlb nyy cle 2026 06 10	New York Yankees	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe7b26e…
06-10 20:05:10	mlb bos tb 2026 06 10	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2ef03e…
06-09 17:24:04	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x362ac4…
06-08 21:37:04	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x426f36…
06-08 12:03:39	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x07e1c3…
06-07 21:09:31	mlb cws phi 2026 06 07	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x18d860…
06-07 17:38:58	mlbb ts ver 2026 06 07 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe4a8df…
06-07 16:59:27	cs2 bb3 m80 2026 06 07	BetBoom Team	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe60487…
06-07 13:09:43	sc2 hero cure 2026 06 07	herO	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x49d401…
06-06 23:09:46	codmw tex riyf 2026 06 06	OpTic Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x63dbdc…
06-06 22:08:30	mlb oak hou 2026 06 06 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc33679…
06-06 14:19:19	lol jdg blg 2026 06 06 game handicap home 1pt5	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd05a2f…
06-06 11:32:36	itf jovanov davies 2026 06 06	Allegra Korpanec Davies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xca3cf6…
06-06 11:32:36	itf haavist petruze 2026 06 06	Lucie Petruzelova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5855a7…
06-05 15:45:21	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05 set handicap away 2pt5	Mensik	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcbec3d…
06-05 01:53:15	fda approves arvinas vepdegestrant 06 05 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8760db…
06-04 14:24:33	itf spiteri pace 2026 06 04	Dalila Spiteri	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4b8115…
06-04 04:48:09	crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	Mali	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x587dc2…
06-03 16:04:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x66de1a…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 18:11
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 22pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	4	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-23 13:54
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:47
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-04 04:48
highest temperature in panama city on april 7 2026 26corbelow	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-11 11:42
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-25 02:00
atp mena aboian 2026 04 15 match total 21pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 02:46
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 07:11
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 03:59
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:52
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 17:11
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 21:42
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
es2 cas alm 2026 04 02 draw	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 20:43
highest temperature in london on april 2 2026 11c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-02 02:41
bitcoin above 74800 on april 20 2026 2am et	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-20 06:33
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	06-08 21:37
highest temperature in kuala lumpur on april 17 2026 31c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 06:17
Bitcoin above 76,400 on April 30, 8AM ET?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-30 12:30
La Bisbal: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Aliona Bolsova	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-29 21:10
svk1 kom kos 2026 04 11 kos	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-13 16:37
efa whu lee 2026 04 04 whu	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-05 17:41
atp bueno casanov 2026 04 10 first set winner Bueno vs Casanova	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-10 16:30
mlb col hou 2026 04 16 spread home 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 04:05