Reliable-Recollection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.51K

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

73.0%

Resolved

723

Trades

3,103

lifetime

Volume

$76.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$28

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 10-28 09:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 122 days

Categories

Other

97% 56% -$1,816

Politics

3% 70% +$256

Sports

0% 25% +$48

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes		+154	$20	12¢	$19	-$1	08-30 19:41
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes		+560	$18	2¢	$9	-$9	08-31 21:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7?	16	$2.5K	2,909	0	+2,909	No	-$2,536	06-07 21:22
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 5?	8	$2.1K	2,124	0	+2,124	Yes	+$46	06-05 09:56
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$1.8K	1,824	0	+1,824	No	+$27	05-30 19:54
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6?	5	$1.8K	2,008	0	+2,008	Yes	+$255	06-06 12:21
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 5?	2	$1.6K	1,658	0	+1,658	No	+$18	05-05 16:05
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7?	4	$1.3K	1,360	0	+1,360	No	-$1,311	06-07 12:55
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 3?	5	$1.0K	1,091	0	+1,091	No	+$45	06-03 13:42
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in September?	3	$1.0K	1,010	16	+994	No	+$20	09-29 12:28
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	1	$1000	1,001	0	+1,001	No	+$1	05-26 12:33
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?	9	$988	730	515	+215	No	+$49	09-28 09:53
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 6?	25	$980	626	626	+0	Yes	+$145	05-06 17:04
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 27?	6	$815	433	433	+0	No	+$27	05-27 20:43
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 6?	9	$746	584	288	+295	No	+$112	07-06 20:50
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?	6	$718	722	0	+722	No	+$4	05-01 07:27
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 9?	5	$707	376	376	+0	Yes	+$44	06-09 19:52
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?	12	$698	820	0	+820	Yes	+$122	06-03 13:30
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 7?	1	$684	704	0	+704	No	+$20	06-06 21:51
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?	74	$645	4,593	4,593	+0	No	+$3	06-02 14:27
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?	7	$590	849	0	+849	Yes	+$258	09-29 19:45
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9?	24	$544	360	360	+0	Yes	-$11	06-09 21:07
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13?	9	$538	614	0	+614	Yes	+$75	06-13 21:02
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 9?	16	$518	502	502	-0	Yes	-$277	07-09 15:57
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11?	5	$507	270	270	+0	Yes	+$33	06-11 14:23
Will Union Centriste hold 53-55 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	2	$506	549	0	+549	No	+$44	10-05 14:32
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 4?	12	$483	506	235	+271	Yes	-$60	06-04 14:26
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6?	11	$478	278	278	+0	Yes	+$74	05-06 16:27
Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	6	$474	548	24	+524	open	—	10-28 09:03
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 30?	11	$445	321	188	+133	No	+$49	04-30 19:01
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?	4	$434	502	0	+502	Yes	+$69	07-31 08:06
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 8?	31	$433	1,230	297	+933	No	-$52	07-08 15:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 09:03:31	Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	159	91¢	$145	0xf652ef…
10-27 22:35:02	Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	61	90¢	$55	0x979aa8…
10-27 22:34:51	Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0xf973cd…
10-27 22:34:27	Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	316	89¢	$281	0x425cf2…
10-27 21:02:48	Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	24	13¢	$3	0x79fd73…
10-27 08:52:09	Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	65	95¢	$62	0x1b1895…
10-26 20:50:08	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xe53422…
10-26 20:49:17	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xe59c18…
10-26 20:27:29	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x27f3ae…
10-26 13:52:45	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	96	66¢	$63	0x06d5c2…
10-26 13:47:47	Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x2f0830…
10-26 06:05:00	Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x54bd87…
10-25 23:01:48	Will Seoul have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa6c5c9…
10-25 19:57:06	Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	80	57¢	$46	0x491558…
10-25 16:08:05	Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x6a82a1…
10-25 09:52:29	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	65	26¢	$17	0x92d9b0…
10-25 09:42:44	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x1317a5…
10-25 09:33:50	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0x9a8c90…
10-25 09:24:15	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0xcb03da…
10-25 06:50:00	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	85	26¢	$22	0xbdace8…
10-24 19:12:14	Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xe96c31…
10-18 09:32:30	Will Seoul have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x86a596…
10-18 09:32:21	Will Seoul have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x2070a3…
10-17 11:38:27	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Shanghai, China?	Yes	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0xc0b77d…
10-17 11:03:08	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Shanghai, China?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$7	0x315aa9…
10-12 11:31:29	Will SER have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0x40489b…
10-12 02:11:53	Will SER have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x8c6228…
10-09 19:21:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x8706eb…
10-09 19:21:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0x7a09a5…
10-09 19:20:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0xc5bb3a…
10-09 19:19:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	34	61¢	$21	0xede2ef…
10-09 19:19:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x3c5f36…
10-09 18:32:52	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf96a80…
10-09 18:32:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0xe602fc…
10-09 18:32:38	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa6e491…
10-09 18:32:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	34	60¢	$20	0x552cc1…
10-09 18:28:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	SELL	17	27¢	$5	0x8986dd…
10-09 18:28:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xeab21e…
10-09 18:28:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0xd0a185…
10-09 17:07:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 9?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x6a3e38…
10-09 17:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	15	70¢	$11	0xa2b131…
10-09 16:04:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 9?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xdb281e…
10-09 15:48:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 9?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x0d2604…
10-09 15:24:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 9?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xbc8eac…
10-09 15:04:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0x3af143…
10-09 15:04:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	55	31¢	$17	0x339301…
10-09 14:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 9?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x183df3…
10-09 14:57:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 9?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x137f1d…
10-09 14:05:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xa550e7…
10-09 14:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 9?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$18	0x9892d3…
10-09 10:33:40	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7ad5d2…
10-08 19:29:02	Will Union Centriste hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	No	BUY	81	98¢	$79	0xfa7af7…
10-08 13:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on October 8?	Yes	SELL	52	0¢	$0	0x94c443…
10-08 13:26:17	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on October 8?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$15	0x246d4b…
10-08 13:08:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on October 8?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xd20797…
10-08 12:58:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on October 8?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x741795…
10-06 18:57:30	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 6?	No	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0x24dcd0…
10-06 17:25:15	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8f8c27…
10-06 16:47:50	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 6?	No	SELL	31	71¢	$22	0x55bc21…
10-06 16:24:54	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 6?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x8eca28…
10-06 15:57:59	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 6?	No	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0x1ad523…
10-06 14:58:47	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 6?	No	BUY	31	62¢	$19	0x9b7f61…
10-06 14:56:53	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 6?	No	BUY	33	80¢	$26	0x0d85a5…
10-06 12:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 6?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xb50bc2…
10-06 10:37:55	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 6?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x2f5801…
10-06 05:30:46	Will Union Centriste hold 65-67 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	166	0¢	$0	0x73087a…
10-06 05:30:33	Will Union Centriste hold 59-61 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	125	2¢	$2	0x8c0173…
10-05 17:23:38	Will Union Centriste have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	Yes	SELL	163	94¢	$153	0xe3ff2d…
10-05 16:52:50	Will SER have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	No	SELL	88	91¢	$80	0xc03c38…
10-05 16:13:16	Will SER have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	No	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x62d0af…
10-05 15:51:31	Will Union Centriste hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0x1c5907…
10-05 15:51:25	Will Union Centriste hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	74	92¢	$69	0xf98274…
10-05 15:31:23	Will Union Centriste have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	Yes	BUY	37	80¢	$30	0xb4d986…
10-05 15:30:14	Will SER have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	No	BUY	88	76¢	$67	0x6df29a…
10-05 15:29:14	Will Union Centriste have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	Yes	BUY	110	72¢	$79	0xcc2fcf…
10-05 15:29:05	Will Union Centriste have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	Yes	BUY	178	39¢	$70	0xc4a1bb…
10-05 15:10:41	Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xca5333…
10-05 15:10:22	Will SER hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x59393d…
10-05 15:10:20	Will SER hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x5e04eb…
10-05 15:06:35	Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x8d4e64…
10-05 14:59:37	Will Union Centriste hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	SELL	104	92¢	$96	0x6d0444…
10-05 14:57:23	Will Union Centriste hold 65-67 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	166	2¢	$4	0xe8e0c3…
10-05 14:36:02	Will SER hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xfb031b…
10-05 14:34:25	Will Union Centriste hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	49	47¢	$23	0x443d69…
10-05 14:34:07	Will Union Centriste hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	160	45¢	$71	0xf0a382…
10-05 14:32:05	Will Union Centriste hold 53-55 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	No	BUY	374	93¢	$347	0x46421b…
10-05 14:30:41	Will Union Centriste hold 59-61 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x4a2600…
10-05 14:30:04	Will Union Centriste hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	No	BUY	26	67¢	$17	0x8f3e0b…
10-05 14:29:32	Will Union Centriste hold 59-61 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x3caf6d…
10-05 14:27:56	Will Union Centriste hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xf9c1b9…
10-05 14:26:43	Will Union Centriste hold 53-55 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	No	BUY	176	90¢	$158	0x75c628…
10-05 14:26:29	Will Union Centriste hold 59-61 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	65	67¢	$43	0xe6428b…
10-05 14:26:16	Will Union Centriste hold 56-58 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	No	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0x5f0465…
10-04 13:28:26	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 4?	Yes	SELL	71	74¢	$53	0x31d7cc…
10-04 13:08:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0x6ccb9a…
10-04 13:04:47	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x1baf06…
10-04 13:02:08	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0x56fe15…
10-04 12:22:26	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	845	0¢	$2	0x68f703…
10-04 09:34:23	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	835	4¢	$30	0x74e475…
10-03 21:59:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on October 3?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xada180…