Smug-Standoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

286

Trades

289

lifetime

Volume

$4.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-31 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 225 days

Categories

Other

99% 99% -$9

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	1	$18	18	+18	open	—	10-31 17:52
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 30?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-30 16:30
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 29?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-29 10:28
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 28?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-28 08:49
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-27 12:22
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 26?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-26 10:11
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 25?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-25 09:44
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 22?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-22 10:59
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 20?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-20 08:30
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 19?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-19 10:19
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on October 18?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-18 15:32
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 17?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-17 16:08
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 16?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-16 16:29
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 15?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-15 14:52
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 14?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-14 13:21
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-13 11:06
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on October 12?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-12 12:30
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-11 09:22
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 8?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-08 12:38
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 7?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-07 07:06
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 5?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-05 09:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 3?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	10-03 10:09
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 2?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-02 14:32
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 1?	1	$18	18	+18	No	+$0	10-01 13:45
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on September 30?	1	$18	18	+18	Yes	+$0	09-30 07:11
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 28?	1	$17	18	+18	No	+$0	09-28 14:41
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on September 27?	1	$17	17	+17	Yes	+$0	09-27 11:13
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 26?	1	$17	17	+17	Yes	+$0	09-26 05:58
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 24?	1	$17	17	+17	No	+$0	09-24 09:58
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 23?	1	$17	17	+17	Yes	+$0	09-23 10:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:52:48	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 1?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x976259…
10-30 16:30:55	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 30?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x99e54b…
10-29 10:28:08	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6a9086…
10-28 08:49:47	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x9286c3…
10-27 12:22:38	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 27?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3211c7…
10-26 10:11:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x051b3a…
10-25 09:44:00	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x332bc4…
10-22 10:59:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 22?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x6f5394…
10-20 08:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 20?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x7bab67…
10-19 10:19:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xdef61b…
10-18 15:32:23	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xcce908…
10-17 16:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 17?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x2e8c96…
10-16 16:29:46	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x81131e…
10-15 14:52:19	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe03856…
10-14 13:21:27	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 14?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x47e990…
10-13 11:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xabe45a…
10-12 12:30:54	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on October 12?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xbe8fc6…
10-11 09:22:37	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x598e59…
10-08 12:38:33	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 8?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x44ffed…
10-07 07:06:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 7?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xb8edb8…
10-05 09:24:10	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf294e6…
10-03 10:09:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xa2f21b…
10-02 14:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x70179f…
10-01 13:45:17	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 1?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xca2990…
09-30 07:11:29	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe3cfd7…
09-28 14:41:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 28?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0x51d394…
09-27 11:13:36	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe5feee…
09-26 05:58:32	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x321dae…
09-24 09:58:56	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 24?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xef2766…
09-23 10:39:13	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x8af8b3…
09-22 09:48:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x92d690…
09-21 14:39:35	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x59c792…
09-20 06:32:13	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or below on September 20?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x713a7a…
09-19 11:11:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 19?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xb1cc64…
09-18 09:10:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 18?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x3fe605…
09-17 04:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xdf1427…
09-16 09:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf2dfad…
09-15 14:11:18	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 15?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x975b7e…
09-13 08:15:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x4df125…
09-11 09:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on September 11?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xea5436…
09-10 09:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x866142…
09-09 08:08:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9ce712…
09-08 13:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on September 8?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7d3e39…
09-07 09:19:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 7?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x8dd9be…
09-06 12:13:33	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 6?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x072c83…
09-05 09:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4604fb…
09-04 03:24:10	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on September 4?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x0a7d34…
09-02 08:49:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on September 2?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe26e06…
08-30 14:17:22	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd6b989…
08-29 10:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x37f4d9…
08-28 10:11:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 28?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x266d22…
08-27 09:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa12450…
08-26 08:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 26?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x18faea…
08-25 09:53:43	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 25?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3f120f…
08-24 15:11:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x647097…
08-24 01:24:01	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 23?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd034c0…
08-22 10:11:46	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 22?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xca8145…
08-21 09:24:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 21?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3e0278…
08-20 12:12:09	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 20?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x79ad3d…
08-18 09:51:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa2db2a…
08-17 09:36:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa19501…
08-16 14:34:54	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x5bd2e2…
08-14 07:05:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xcd47e5…
08-13 09:28:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb99b18…
08-12 09:51:49	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 12?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfe5847…
08-11 07:09:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc7c174…
08-10 09:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 10?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x0964eb…
08-09 07:26:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 9?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x625eb4…
08-08 08:16:31	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb0bd57…
08-07 10:47:27	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8703c5…
08-06 08:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on August 6?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1c55f5…
08-05 08:17:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on August 5?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd9086f…
08-04 09:10:30	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x32f432…
08-03 08:30:26	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 3?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x802e22…
08-02 06:46:35	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 2?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x791679…
08-01 07:28:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 1?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x59d1b2…
07-30 08:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x576147…
07-29 07:21:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf8f253…
07-28 08:28:40	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 28?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x17de99…
07-27 10:13:25	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x452332…
07-26 08:18:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbf9e6a…
07-25 09:37:37	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf30c09…
07-24 14:21:31	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 24?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x19f5ad…
07-23 08:36:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4add31…
07-22 02:17:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x94c2d0…
07-21 06:10:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 21?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfb0a60…
07-20 12:27:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbaa556…
07-19 05:13:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 19?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6abfb0…
07-18 07:52:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 18?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x19b681…
07-17 07:34:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3b1dff…
07-15 22:33:37	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or below on July 15?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x076e4a…
07-15 10:15:11	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 15?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x158e57…
07-14 09:21:47	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 14?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xce5911…
07-13 09:12:23	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x72042a…
07-12 07:35:46	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 12?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa5873a…
07-11 10:45:47	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 11?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1f99c9…
07-10 16:31:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x794ddc…
07-09 09:29:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb3405f…
07-08 10:27:37	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfd1981…
07-07 08:23:49	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 7?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0x2013a9…