Optimistic-Compost — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$252

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved

522

Trades

4,630

lifetime

Volume

$533.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$115

Open exposure

$2.45K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-07 07:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 167 days

Categories

Politics

66% 58% +$18,335

Other

30% 57% +$761

Sports

3% 65% +$721

Crypto

0% 25% +$153

Tech

0% 50% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes		+1,740	$1,390	88¢	$1.5K	+$150	11-07 07:48
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes		+1,280	$806	71¢	$909	+$102	11-06 03:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	127	$22.6K	19,253	18,926	+327	Yes	+$278	01-31 09:44
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	26	$14.7K	8,100	8,100	+0	Yes	+$456	11-03 23:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	41	$13.0K	13,158	13,158	+0	Yes	+$3,379	06-17 16:17
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	73	$10.0K	19,762	18,761	+1,002	No	+$244	01-14 23:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	129	$9.8K	19,874	20,474	-600	No	+$612	05-28 19:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	35	$8.7K	9,538	9,538	+0	No	-$457	08-06 16:21
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	37	$8.3K	7,156	7,156	+0	Yes	+$22	06-11 19:30
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	2	$7.9K	4,836	4,836	+0	No	-$971	08-10 09:59
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	19	$7.9K	7,602	7,602	+0	No	+$64	08-07 17:33
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	39	$7.6K	6,838	6,838	+0	No	+$1,019	06-19 04:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	18	$6.9K	5,971	6,071	-100	No	-$1,904	04-24 17:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	21	$6.6K	5,249	5,249	+0	Yes	-$250	02-28 06:40
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	8	$6.6K	3,478	3,478	+0	Yes	+$339	08-02 02:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	53	$6.3K	5,028	5,028	+0	Yes	+$236	08-06 20:18
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	21	$6.1K	3,350	3,350	+0	No	+$140	10-26 08:58
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	17	$6.0K	5,600	5,600	+0	Yes	+$207	08-30 23:53
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	40	$5.0K	5,241	1,100	+4,141	Yes	+$761	07-24 18:03
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	28	$5.0K	5,767	5,767	+0	No	+$70	01-10 18:18
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	42	$5.0K	5,605	447	+5,158	Yes	+$916	07-19 23:10
another us government shutdown by february 14	17	$4.9K	6,344	6,344	+0	No	+$400	02-13 07:48
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$4.9K	2,913	2,913	+0	Yes	+$883	11-04 03:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	18	$4.6K	5,358	5,820	-463	Yes	+$878	04-08 01:49
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	15	$4.6K	2,504	2,504	+0	Yes	+$293	06-21 22:04
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	12	$4.3K	3,112	3,112	+0	Yes	+$1,017	07-27 17:08
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$4.3K	2,300	2,300	+0	No	+$276	06-21 22:04
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	16	$4.2K	2,796	1,696	+1,100	No	+$51	04-30 22:06
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	6	$3.9K	2,600	2,600	+0	No	-$574	08-10 09:59
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	10	$3.9K	2,206	2,206	+0	No	+$99	08-06 04:24
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	8	$3.8K	3,131	3,131	+0	No	-$191	07-23 17:15
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	24	$3.8K	2,093	2,093	+0	Yes	+$386	04-12 21:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 07:48:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x7f12e6…
11-07 07:33:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xc36fed…
11-07 07:25:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	95	79¢	$75	0x1c18ac…
11-07 07:24:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	1,140	79¢	$901	0x0354ed…
11-07 06:56:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	1,540	77¢	$1,186	0xe9c3cb…
11-07 06:56:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	310	94¢	$291	0x91e1a5…
11-07 06:45:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	310	96¢	$296	0x007b8e…
11-06 22:35:25	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	382	52¢	$200	0x372825…
11-06 03:21:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,280	63¢	$806	0xc6c73e…
11-06 03:20:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	1,540	78¢	$1,201	0xfded46…
11-04 06:46:30	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,440	92¢	$1,321	0xe0c249…
11-04 06:36:25	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	132	0¢	$0	0xee42bc…
11-04 06:36:18	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	600	0¢	$1	0x6fb56a…
11-04 06:35:27	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	600	0¢	$3	0x40aeb9…
11-04 06:24:45	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x714d56…
11-04 06:24:25	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x85362c…
11-04 06:24:25	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0x26078c…
11-04 03:52:52	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	870	98¢	$856	0xc0c484…
11-04 03:41:30	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0xcc03a1…
11-04 03:41:28	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x5169f4…
11-04 03:41:25	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,100	92¢	$1,013	0xe763f0…
11-04 03:39:39	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,157	85¢	$984	0x39ae56…
11-04 03:04:28	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	2,913	99¢	$2,893	0xa98b3b…
11-04 02:00:57	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	430	90¢	$387	0xd40fe0…
11-04 01:47:18	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	549	40¢	$222	0x064a9a…
11-04 01:45:27	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	31¢	$9	0x9811ec…
11-04 01:45:27	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	518	31¢	$161	0x3c0852…
11-04 01:35:39	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	88¢	$211	0x587068…
11-04 01:22:27	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xa87157…
11-04 01:22:27	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	23¢	$12	0x6c5d7b…
11-04 01:22:27	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	23¢	$27	0x16d58b…
11-04 01:19:40	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0xa821f0…
11-04 01:18:37	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	650	23¢	$150	0xfce9f3…
11-04 01:06:31	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	192	81¢	$155	0x8862c7…
11-04 01:06:27	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	103	81¢	$83	0x4a2949…
11-04 01:06:25	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	205	81¢	$166	0x875e4e…
11-03 23:49:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	82¢	$49	0xe17f2b…
11-03 23:49:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	168	82¢	$138	0x8bc03c…
11-03 23:49:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x876233…
11-03 23:49:43	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x69049d…
11-03 23:48:39	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	41¢	$206	0xbc07ed…
11-03 23:21:42	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,270	96¢	$1,219	0x085e0d…
11-02 22:31:57	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,656	72¢	$1,192	0x5a4568…
11-02 17:56:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,270	95¢	$1,206	0x0298a0…
10-31 13:46:25	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	45¢	$76	0xd32e8f…
10-31 11:08:58	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x65be23…
10-31 11:00:48	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xd1a336…
10-31 10:47:10	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	951	52¢	$494	0x0bb52c…
10-31 10:31:25	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x284f3f…
10-31 10:30:06	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x0c677e…
10-31 10:18:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	700	94¢	$658	0xe68c33…
10-30 08:59:58	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,913	69¢	$2,010	0xa6ad60…
10-30 08:58:27	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	2,160	93¢	$2,009	0x723c06…
10-27 20:07:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	650	69¢	$448	0xa40e3a…
10-27 20:04:56	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	1,740	25¢	$435	0xf8b116…
10-27 19:37:50	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,300	68¢	$884	0xa3bdd3…
10-27 19:37:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x4f9472…
10-27 02:28:53	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	257	60¢	$154	0x419e43…
10-27 01:33:30	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	60¢	$26	0x58f63f…
10-26 23:51:18	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	405	68¢	$276	0xde35ac…
10-26 23:31:23	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0x28b2df…
10-26 23:30:47	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xb22c5b…
10-26 23:25:41	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0xeff1d3…
10-26 23:07:59	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	480	100¢	$480	0xc41ff9…
10-26 21:42:42	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	60	76¢	$46	0x5391cc…
10-26 18:32:42	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0x4b312a…
10-26 18:32:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	411	72¢	$298	0x181dd6…
10-26 13:08:48	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x92382b…
10-26 13:06:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0xfc9c04…
10-26 13:05:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	78	73¢	$57	0x3cf92e…
10-26 13:00:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	113	73¢	$82	0x7b5bec…
10-26 13:00:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	17	73¢	$12	0x0209ed…
10-26 08:58:21	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	800	92¢	$736	0x350885…
10-26 07:39:18	Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	150	3¢	$4	0x381e0a…
10-26 03:26:38	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x628497…
10-25 20:32:33	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	64¢	$126	0x74ae37…
10-25 20:32:02	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0x809a96…
10-25 20:31:38	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0xa4ac8d…
10-25 18:07:05	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	64¢	$80	0xdf6afe…
10-25 18:06:30	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xbeff34…
10-25 18:06:00	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	64¢	$62	0xb0d3f4…
10-25 18:05:54	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	64¢	$120	0x59363e…
10-25 18:05:45	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	64¢	$70	0x722454…
10-25 18:05:20	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	67¢	$19	0x98a306…
10-25 18:05:18	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	67¢	$128	0xe569c1…
10-25 18:05:12	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	67¢	$128	0xa55a37…
10-25 18:05:06	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	67¢	$128	0xbe72a4…
10-25 16:57:41	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	69	92¢	$64	0xe4306d…
10-25 16:57:35	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	107	92¢	$98	0x989df1…
10-25 16:57:29	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	213	92¢	$196	0x3df3b5…
10-25 16:57:23	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	160	92¢	$147	0xace208…
10-25 16:57:17	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	107	92¢	$98	0xe7ed45…
10-25 16:57:11	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	213	92¢	$196	0x11eaa3…
10-25 16:50:03	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	31	92¢	$29	0x35b4c7…
10-25 13:47:30	Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0x7517eb…
10-24 14:49:42	Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x229daf…
10-24 14:49:17	Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x34e229…
10-23 20:00:56	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	890	6¢	$54	0x1adbaa…
10-23 19:53:15	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xac0211…
10-23 19:27:29	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x23e232…