Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

+$268

Hit rate

4.7%

Resolved

Trades

672

lifetime

Volume

$15.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$4.72K

30 positions

First seen

2026-11-02

last 11-04 20:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

64% 14% -$13

Politics

19% — —

Tech

14% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 375 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+250	$243	98¢	$245	+$2	11-03 22:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+250	$211	97¢	$243	+$31	11-03 08:32
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+250	$230	91¢	$226	-$4	11-03 15:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	+213	$189	100¢	$212	+$22	11-03 18:07
Tusk out by December 31?	No	+221	$206	96¢	$211	+$5	11-03 20:05
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	No	+250	$188	77¢	$193	+$6	11-03 21:40
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+300	$170	64¢	$190	+$21	11-03 18:47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+300	$166	62¢	$188	+$22	11-03 02:25
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+250	$172	73¢	$182	+$10	11-03 23:31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	+200	$187	79¢	$157	-$30	11-03 22:56
Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+200	$158	78¢	$156	-$2	11-04 00:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	+300	$124	51¢	$153	+$28	11-03 08:47
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	+200	$138	75¢	$150	+$12	11-03 03:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	+150	$138	100¢	$150	+$12	11-02 23:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	No	+300	$182	49¢	$147	-$35	11-03 08:47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	+210	$132	68¢	$144	+$12	11-04 03:06
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	No	+150	$138	95¢	$143	+$5	11-03 15:39
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+150	$125	93¢	$140	+$15	11-04 07:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	+250	$205	52¢	$131	-$74	11-03 15:09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	+150	$119	86¢	$130	+$11	11-04 05:24
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	+150	$113	86¢	$130	+$16	11-04 04:01
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?	No	+150	$127	85¢	$128	+$0	11-03 03:26
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	+132	$118	96¢	$127	+$9	11-03 01:05
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	+150	$106	84¢	$127	+$21	11-03 04:51
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Yes	+169	$87	75¢	$127	+$40	11-04 02:19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	+150	$112	82¢	$122	+$10	11-04 02:33
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?	No	+125	$111	98¢	$122	+$11	11-03 16:21
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	+250	$47	48¢	$119	+$72	11-03 15:09
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	+166	$104	70¢	$116	+$12	11-03 17:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+150	$109	76¢	$115	+$6	11-03 15:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 20:55:51	Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 US song this week?	No	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0xd2f328…
11-04 18:53:09	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	17¢	$6	0x86bbaa…
11-04 16:17:45	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0xdf36c1…
11-04 14:21:07	Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 US song this week?	No	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x4e5b19…
11-04 08:36:55	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0x2dae27…
11-04 07:24:39	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x12220e…
11-04 07:15:40	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x96fe09…
11-04 07:15:40	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x12e2fb…
11-04 07:06:36	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	41	53¢	$22	0x030532…
11-04 06:11:16	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	43	88¢	$38	0xd8e816…
11-04 06:11:16	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	No	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0xb933f1…
11-04 05:54:39	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	87¢	$34	0xceefa0…
11-04 05:54:39	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x5c9a7a…
11-04 05:54:39	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x42680c…
11-04 05:54:37	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x5d3902…
11-04 05:49:39	Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0x663c7d…
11-04 05:49:37	Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0xde7de6…
11-04 05:49:37	Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	BUY	19	57¢	$11	0x9a029a…
11-04 05:49:37	Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Olivia Rodrigo) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	BUY	19	57¢	$11	0x59d300…
11-04 05:36:54	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xe34dbd…
11-04 05:32:36	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	14¢	$7	0xed7074…
11-04 05:32:36	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	42	14¢	$6	0x2428e4…
11-04 05:32:36	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	No	BUY	49	87¢	$43	0x11ee5b…
11-04 05:32:34	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	No	BUY	41	87¢	$35	0xbbbd2d…
11-04 05:26:57	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x01c6eb…
11-04 05:26:55	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xfe6673…
11-04 05:26:55	Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x068d28…
11-04 05:24:37	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xba577f…
11-04 05:24:37	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	95	23¢	$22	0x2a5714…
11-04 05:14:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0x3fc501…
11-04 05:11:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x6ad95d…
11-04 04:58:16	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xe8fce8…
11-04 04:58:15	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xde7c9f…
11-04 04:47:07	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0xc48f6c…
11-04 04:47:06	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x66b098…
11-04 04:47:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xa245aa…
11-04 04:06:52	Government shutdown by December 12?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xc4310b…
11-04 04:06:52	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0x9831b7…
11-04 04:06:52	Government shutdown by December 12?	No	BUY	19	65¢	$12	0x94d854…
11-04 04:06:52	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x465879…
11-04 04:06:52	Government shutdown by December 12?	Yes	BUY	19	35¢	$7	0x2dde2c…
11-04 04:06:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x996bc5…
11-04 04:06:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x7b2502…
11-04 04:01:27	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x9e3df9…
11-04 04:01:27	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x477658…
11-04 03:34:49	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0xa75937…
11-04 03:34:49	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x6baeac…
11-04 03:34:28	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xe56f6e…
11-04 03:31:45	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x452a0b…
11-04 03:31:45	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x1ef14d…
11-04 03:06:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xd451c6…
11-04 03:06:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x56530b…
11-04 03:06:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x4458ba…
11-04 03:06:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x39e8e1…
11-04 03:06:06	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xd52bc4…
11-04 02:34:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xb3a404…
11-04 02:34:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xae0519…
11-04 02:34:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x7bb1c6…
11-04 02:34:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x4e12ec…
11-04 02:34:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xef0a57…
11-04 02:34:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x1f49b3…
11-04 02:34:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x086757…
11-04 02:34:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x019d75…
11-04 02:33:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xfdabab…
11-04 02:33:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x7805ad…
11-04 02:19:01	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xf5a593…
11-04 02:19:01	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xea1863…
11-04 01:51:54	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xb7c96f…
11-04 01:46:57	Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million?	Yes	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0x34322c…
11-04 01:18:37	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xfd6294…
11-04 01:18:37	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xf686a9…
11-04 00:55:09	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x6a2e61…
11-04 00:55:09	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x398a94…
11-04 00:42:04	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x546d4a…
11-04 00:42:04	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x25e56f…
11-04 00:37:43	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x8dd59a…
11-04 00:31:22	Will no Israeli government be formed after the 2026 Knesset election?	Yes	BUY	22	44¢	$10	0xf3f442…
11-04 00:31:22	Will no Israeli government be formed after the 2026 Knesset election?	No	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0x5494db…
11-04 00:28:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0xcb25b7…
11-04 00:28:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xcaeb9a…
11-04 00:28:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x9f08cf…
11-04 00:28:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x6eb537…
11-04 00:13:46	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0xc5e864…
11-04 00:11:46	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x1001ec…
11-04 00:11:46	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x093a24…
11-03 23:51:52	Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x561895…
11-03 23:48:46	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x128810…
11-03 23:31:28	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xfcda85…
11-03 23:31:28	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x9cc63d…
11-03 23:24:36	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x6b1f75…
11-03 23:24:31	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc92273…
11-03 23:24:31	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	95	81¢	$77	0x969ce0…
11-03 23:24:31	Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	19¢	$9	0x12f0a6…
11-03 23:22:12	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xa3adb3…
11-03 23:22:12	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x86af72…
11-03 23:14:37	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x1cba27…
11-03 23:14:36	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x683b9d…
11-03 23:06:54	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x019606…
11-03 23:00:52	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xa4b1de…
11-03 23:00:33	Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xa35a2f…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	12	$362	513	87	+425	open	—	11-03 18:07
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	10	$336	500	100	+400	open	—	11-03 03:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	15	$334	521	100	+421	open	—	11-04 03:06
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	12	$307	600	0	+600	open	—	11-03 08:47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	12	$305	600	0	+600	open	—	11-03 02:25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	10	$304	600	0	+600	open	—	11-03 18:47
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	9	$287	350	150	+200	open	—	11-03 23:06
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	8	$271	282	100	+182	open	—	11-04 05:32
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	9	$255	500	0	+500	open	—	11-03 23:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	8	$253	499	0	+499	open	—	11-03 08:32
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	8	$252	500	0	+500	open	—	11-03 15:09
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	8	$251	500	0	+500	open	—	11-03 21:40
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	8	$251	500	0	+500	open	—	11-03 15:03
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	8	$251	500	0	+500	open	—	11-03 22:42
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	7	$224	152	148	+4	open	—	11-03 13:48
Tusk out by December 31?	9	$223	443	0	+443	open	—	11-03 20:05
Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	7	$204	400	0	+400	open	—	11-04 00:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	7	$203	400	0	+400	open	—	11-04 04:06
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	6	$201	400	0	+400	open	—	11-03 22:56
Will Anthropic raise between $85B and $95B in its IPO?	5	$198	200	100	+100	open	—	11-03 10:47
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	4	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	11-04 01:51
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	6	$171	338	0	+338	open	—	11-04 02:19
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	9	$167	333	0	+333	open	—	11-03 17:46
Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	3	$161	100	100	+0	open	—	11-02 17:01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	6	$153	300	0	+300	open	—	11-04 07:24
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	7	$153	300	0	+300	open	—	11-04 04:01
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	5	$152	300	0	+300	open	—	11-04 07:15
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?	6	$152	300	0	+300	open	—	11-03 03:26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	5	$152	300	0	+300	open	—	11-02 23:31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	5	$152	300	0	+300	open	—	11-03 15:10