Realized P&L
-$14
Unrealized P&L
+$13
Hit rate
70.4%
Resolved
532
Trades
37,075
lifetime
Volume
$217.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$128
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 07-20 14:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 19 days
Categories
Crypto
58% 67% +$123
Other
34% 62% $-76
Politics
4% 82% +$50
Sports
3% 45% $-112
Tech
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 562 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +63 $22 60¢ $38 +$16 07-09 20:02
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +24 $13 66¢ $16 +$3 07-14 18:42
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? No -19 $-18 82¢ $-16 +$2 07-12 15:10
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No +15 $10 79¢ $12 +$2 06-04 23:22
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes -11 $-9 99¢ $-11 $-2 06-26 08:25
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? No -24 $-6 32¢ $-8 $-2 06-25 13:55
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 $-0 07-20 03:06
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 07-07 12:31
Will BP be acquired before 2027? No +5 $4 88¢ $4 +$0 06-17 22:52
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes +5 $4 82¢ $4 +$0 07-07 12:13
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +5 $4 80¢ $4 +$0 06-17 18:51
Will Trump Airport become law this year? Yes +15 $7 10¢ $2 $-6 06-10 04:33
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $1 24¢ $1 $-0 07-16 18:12
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +2 $1 38¢ $1 +$0 06-24 05:54
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes -6 $-1 12¢ $-1 +$0 05-27 20:31
Spain snap election called in 2026? Yes +2 $0 24¢ $0 $-0 06-10 09:55
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch? Yes +8 $0 $0 $-0 06-09 00:47
Haiti elections delayed again? No +0 $2 $0 $-2 06-22 09:44