Unnatural-Beanie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$97

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

96.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$113

Open exposure

$440

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-20 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Other

41% 100% +$56

Politics

28% 100% +$200

Tech

20% 100% +$12

Crypto

7% 50% -$180

Sports

4% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes		+457	$440	96¢	$440	+$1	10-20 18:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	2	$870	442	442	+0	Yes	+$10	10-20 13:13
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	5	$440	457	0	+457	open	—	10-20 18:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$255	256	0	+256	No	+$0	07-05 14:04
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	1	$246	246	0	+246	Yes	+$0	05-25 04:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$237	246	0	+246	No	+$9	05-22 04:47
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?	1	$235	237	0	+237	No	+$2	05-13 03:46
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$213	214	0	+214	Yes	+$1	03-12 02:59
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	1	$196	197	0	+197	Yes	+$0	07-15 03:58
will trump say jesus this week march 8	2	$183	213	0	+213	Yes	+$30	03-09 12:26
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	1	$182	187	0	+187	Yes	-$182	01-29 03:57
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	1	$181	183	0	+183	No	+$1	01-29 03:57
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	1	$181	324	0	+324	Yes	+$142	07-27 02:22
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$173	174	0	+174	No	+$1	01-05 14:05
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$173	190	0	+190	Yes	+$17	01-05 14:05
over 37pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	2	$158	173	0	+173	No	+$15	07-25 09:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$141	143	0	+143	Yes	+$2	04-29 14:48
iran closes its airspace by june 8	1	$126	126	0	+126	Yes	+$0	06-08 08:43
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	1	$123	130	0	+130	No	+$6	06-05 06:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$123	126	0	+126	No	+$3	06-05 06:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	1	$117	118	0	+118	No	+$1	04-30 03:32
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$117	117	0	+117	No	+$1	04-30 07:31
over 40m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129611 286 153	3	$98	102	0	+102	No	+$5	07-25 09:41
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 28, 2026?	1	$94	107	0	+107	No	+$13	07-27 02:21
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$90	90	0	+90	No	+$1	04-07 23:04
over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	1	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	07-17 13:21
iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	1	$59	60	0	+60	Yes	+$1	07-15 03:57
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	04-25 00:20
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	1	$46	52	0	+52	No	+$6	04-22 13:13
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	1	$44	45	0	+45	No	+$1	04-14 14:14
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$43	47	0	+47	No	+$4	03-27 02:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 18:17:48	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	93¢	$32	0xedce59…
10-20 17:50:11	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	93¢	$67	0xc66d93…
10-20 17:00:35	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x38c3a3…
10-20 13:13:29	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xf4f20e…
10-20 13:13:26	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	235	97¢	$229	0xaadadc…
10-20 13:13:15	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	SELL	442	100¢	$440	0x7c639f…
08-28 06:39:24	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	442	97¢	$430	0x78b820…
07-27 02:22:13	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	BUY	324	56¢	$181	0x5ccb69…
07-27 02:21:58	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	107	88¢	$94	0x1e3352…
07-25 09:41:57	over 37pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	73	92¢	$67	0xeebcc7…
07-25 09:41:46	over 37pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x2dcb1d…
07-25 09:41:39	over 40m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129611 286 153	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xfb470a…
07-25 09:41:28	over 40m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129611 286 153	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x09ec3d…
07-25 09:39:28	over 40m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129611 286 153	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x38f57e…
07-17 13:21:18	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc6c37c…
07-15 03:58:01	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	100¢	$196	0x6c8256…
07-15 03:57:53	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0xe59447…
07-05 14:04:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	256	100¢	$255	0x546eb4…
06-08 08:43:04	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x8e8357…
06-05 06:16:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	126	98¢	$123	0x513787…
06-05 06:16:39	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	130	95¢	$123	0xa79458…
05-25 04:46:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	246	100¢	$246	0xb7f61f…
05-22 04:47:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	246	96¢	$237	0xa5b31a…
05-13 03:46:17	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?	No	BUY	237	99¢	$235	0xbbb526…
04-30 07:31:26	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xa2aaff…
04-30 03:32:30	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2b3f02…
04-30 03:32:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0x846d4f…
04-29 14:48:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0x15a636…
04-25 00:20:42	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xda6227…
04-22 13:13:18	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	52	88¢	$46	0x0f561c…
04-14 14:14:19	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xc88701…
04-07 23:04:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$90	0x9e4b2d…
04-06 02:45:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	98¢	$90	0x086106…
03-27 04:16:31	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x4911e1…
03-27 04:06:53	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x3b1327…
03-27 02:13:13	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0x407cad…
03-27 02:04:35	will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xcf2f23…
03-27 02:04:29	will michigan state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x14f516…
03-27 01:58:01	will alabama win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	43	99¢	$43	0x64bb1d…
03-27 01:53:41	will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0xc31df7…
03-27 01:49:45	will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x1b8ad3…
03-12 02:59:51	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	214	99¢	$213	0x4df83e…
03-09 12:26:13	will trump say jesus this week march 8	Yes	BUY	190	86¢	$164	0x0a5b37…
03-09 12:26:05	will trump say jesus this week march 8	Yes	BUY	22	86¢	$19	0xd9aadd…
01-29 03:57:44	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	No	BUY	183	99¢	$181	0xf5b881…
01-29 03:57:32	will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	No	BUY	187	97¢	$182	0xa5a396…
01-05 14:05:59	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	174	99¢	$173	0x931a5d…
01-05 14:05:47	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	190	91¢	$173	0xf0da6c…