Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

64.9%

Resolved

Trades

171

lifetime

Volume

$375

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-08-15

last 10-03 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

72% 34% +$5

Politics

10% 67% +$1

Tech

9% 62% +$17

Crypto

8% 50% +$1

Sports

1% 0% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	+2	$2	97¢	$2	+$0	09-28 19:32
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	+2	$1	87¢	$2	+$1	08-29 17:11
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	+14	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	09-29 12:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?	2	$39	31	31	+0	Yes	+$19	08-31 17:31
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	3	$33	19	19	+0	No	+$5	09-03 15:22
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?	2	$30	16	16	+0	No	+$2	08-30 08:24
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?	2	$27	14	14	+0	open	—	09-07 11:30
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on August 31?	1	$15	47	0	+47	No	-$15	08-15 10:47
Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?	2	$12	11	11	+0	Yes	+$8	09-12 09:22
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$1	09-28 19:38
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?	3	$7	10	6	+4	Yes	+$6	08-31 17:31
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	3	$6	8	3	+4	No	-$2	09-22 15:56
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	4	$5	15	15	+0	open	—	10-03 08:36
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	09-05 17:34
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	2	$5	13	0	+13	No	-$5	09-18 11:47
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	09-05 17:30
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	08-28 10:09
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	4	$5	10	10	+0	open	—	10-02 14:48
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	3	$4	9	4	+4	open	—	10-03 17:58
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31?	2	$4	24	24	+0	No	-$4	08-31 17:32
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?	4	$4	9	0	+9	No	-$4	09-10 11:39
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	2	$4	11	0	+11	Yes	+$7	09-02 17:44
will patient zero hit 35m first week streams	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	09-29 14:44
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on August 31, 2026?	2	$4	3	3	+0	No	$0	08-23 19:05
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026?	1	$3	13	0	+13	No	-$3	08-15 10:36
Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	1	$3	4	0	+4	No	+$1	09-15 09:32
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	1	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	09-24 16:51
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	3	$3	38	0	+38	No	-$3	10-03 16:57
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	3	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	10-03 16:51
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September?	2	$3	8	0	+8	No	-$3	09-08 12:09
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	3	$3	10	0	+10	Yes	+$7	09-10 11:37
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	2	$3	5	0	+5	No	+$2	10-03 16:58
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	1	$3	7	0	+7	Yes	+$4	08-15 10:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 18:00:02	Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0x469633…
10-03 17:58:15	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Yes	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0xd85aa3…
10-03 17:39:29	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x76f3f7…
10-03 17:08:56	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x50d069…
10-03 16:58:05	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xf7e3ee…
10-03 16:57:48	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x82e284…
10-03 16:57:30	Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x57953a…
10-03 16:57:18	Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x8264cd…
10-03 16:52:26	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x75189d…
10-03 16:51:57	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x74fa9b…
10-03 16:51:30	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x84d1d5…
10-03 16:51:15	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x862b7a…
10-03 16:50:51	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x9bbe0a…
10-03 16:50:36	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe89223…
10-03 16:50:09	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xef98e3…
10-03 16:49:44	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5bcba9…
10-03 16:47:03	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x5af8df…
10-03 08:43:39	Will Capitão Wagner win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x9136cf…
10-03 08:43:23	Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x05ae9b…
10-03 08:43:05	Will Chloe Foster win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x677897…
10-03 08:42:53	Will Dillon Roberts win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x124f9f…
10-03 08:42:36	Will Giovanna Simpson win the next Burnie mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf7a312…
10-03 08:40:59	Will Teeny Brumby win the next Burnie mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x71e1bc…
10-03 08:40:44	Will Rick Shegog win the next West Tamar mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x325deb…
10-03 08:39:41	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x170db7…
10-03 08:39:08	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd14347…
10-03 08:38:42	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x218aea…
10-03 08:36:17	Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xe63d92…
10-02 14:48:41	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xeb87a8…
10-02 14:48:00	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x57750a…
10-02 14:47:47	Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6f1fd0…
10-02 14:47:32	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe16880…
10-02 14:47:08	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd236ac…
10-02 14:46:45	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x7c1eae…
10-02 14:46:18	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x646efd…
10-02 14:45:33	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x006e91…
10-02 14:45:12	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xb8d24c…
10-02 14:44:47	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x40f550…
10-02 14:44:18	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5e0013…
10-02 14:43:59	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between -0.3% and -0.1%?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe2d05d…
10-02 14:43:03	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x1ae31b…
10-01 11:05:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x05a51e…
10-01 11:04:39	Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xb14ca2…
10-01 11:04:17	Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x947311…
10-01 11:04:02	Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x2cf758…
10-01 11:01:47	Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4fd056…
10-01 11:01:23	Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdf89bb…
09-29 15:00:41	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xabc3a5…
09-29 15:00:00	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xa50943…
09-29 14:58:33	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1788f0…
09-29 14:58:27	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x9b235c…
09-29 14:44:48	will patient zero hit 45m first week streams	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x9afebe…
09-29 14:44:27	will patient zero hit 45m first week streams	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf760e2…
09-29 14:44:18	will patient zero hit 35m first week streams	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x9bc860…
09-29 14:34:59	will patient zero hit 45m first week streams	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xb2462e…
09-29 14:23:09	will patient zero hit 35m first week streams	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x411e2f…
09-29 14:22:51	will patient zero hit 35m first week streams	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x206221…
09-29 12:50:06	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3ce7a9…
09-28 19:39:53	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x88508c…
09-28 19:38:48	Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa08917…
09-28 19:32:18	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x45101c…
09-28 19:31:36	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x29c972…
09-26 13:41:56	Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x60132b…
09-24 16:52:06	Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xddc379…
09-24 16:51:30	Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x69d258…
09-24 16:50:54	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 13m?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf3e4ac…
09-24 16:50:50	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x084271…
09-24 16:50:44	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xf4bfd3…
09-24 16:50:17	Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x1e98b1…
09-24 16:48:59	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf93a8f…
09-24 16:16:51	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x88dfb8…
09-24 16:16:21	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xeec510…
09-24 16:16:00	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 25m?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xf631b7…
09-24 16:15:18	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x46ffa5…
09-24 16:14:47	Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x4bbe87…
09-23 07:52:17	Will Caroline Elliott win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xbcb3e9…
09-22 15:56:03	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xe4e2f3…
09-22 15:55:51	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	No	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0xcb4eb8…
09-21 17:55:24	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xca251c…
09-21 17:51:57	Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x797f03…
09-20 17:16:24	Will Taylor Swift win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x798e0a…
09-20 05:57:58	Will AfD win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x7dec3b…
09-20 05:56:43	Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9670fd…
09-20 05:55:22	Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?	CDU	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x2f78f8…
09-20 05:54:39	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9c1223…
09-20 05:54:03	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x446a25…
09-18 11:48:16	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xa8119d…
09-18 11:47:33	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x50cc8e…
09-16 16:50:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x55115c…
09-16 13:33:36	Will Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x1326e3…
09-15 09:32:22	Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xecc1db…
09-15 09:32:04	Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5dcc98…
09-14 19:22:27	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xde03a6…
09-14 19:22:03	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7d4cce…
09-14 19:21:34	Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x3c94b9…
09-14 19:21:13	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x185c9e…
09-13 20:36:27	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be at least $14B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x31143c…
09-12 09:35:06	Will Union Centriste hold 59-61 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x4cc31a…
09-12 09:33:46	Will SER have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xa0dac8…
09-12 09:29:27	Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0xb45c10…