Lone-Sovereignty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.99K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

5,003

Trades

10,407

lifetime

Volume

$204.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 10-30 21:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 147 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 74% -$1,840

Other

36% 69% -$1,073

Sports

4% 76% -$87

Politics

0% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 432 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down on march 2	36	$5.7K	5,423	5,423	+0	Up	+$1,084	03-02 14:42
bitcoin up or down february 28 11am et	16	$2.3K	2,177	2,177	+0	Up	-$187	02-28 16:48
bitcoin up or down february 28 10am et	11	$1.8K	2,002	2,002	+0	Up	+$66	02-28 15:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3AM ET	25	$1.7K	1,272	1,272	+0	Up	-$270	10-04 07:56
bitcoin above 74k on march 17	30	$1.6K	1,678	1,656	+23	No	+$135	03-17 14:48
bitcoin above 68k on april 1	23	$1.4K	1,065	1,052	+13	Yes	+$89	04-01 14:52
bitcoin up or down february 28 1pm et	10	$1.2K	1,369	1,369	+0	Up	-$248	02-28 18:41
bitcoin up or down march 2 3am et	22	$1.1K	802	802	+0	Up	+$76	03-02 08:50
bitcoin up or down february 28 4am et	8	$1.0K	845	845	+0	Up	+$63	02-28 09:23
bitcoin above 72k on march 19	13	$982	952	940	+12	No	+$27	03-19 00:35
bitcoin up or down march 2 4am et	5	$930	908	908	+0	Down	-$70	03-02 09:57
bitcoin up or down march 1 12pm et	11	$884	798	798	+0	Down	+$116	03-01 17:45
dota2 heroic liquid 2026 03 14	6	$814	812	812	+0	Team Liquid	-$171	03-14 13:34
bitcoin up or down march 2 12am et	11	$806	709	709	+0	Down	+$59	03-02 05:46
bitcoin up or down march 2 10am et	4	$793	2,301	2,301	+0	Up	-$407	03-02 15:13
crint aus ind 2026 02 28	8	$771	396	396	+0	Australia	+$6	03-01 08:28
bitcoin up or down february 28 11pm et	9	$711	481	481	+0	Down	+$120	03-01 04:47
spx opens up or down on march 13 2026	10	$699	615	615	+0	Up	+$106	03-13 13:01
bitcoin up or down march 19 2026 2pm et	4	$683	372	370	+1	Down	+$37	03-19 18:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7AM ET	7	$675	719	719	+0	Down	-$46	10-18 11:43
nba atl dal 2026 03 18	2	$663	362	362	+0	Hawks	+$55	03-19 02:25
dota2 navij avl 2026 03 14	10	$647	384	384	+0	AVULUS	-$82	03-14 10:56
bitcoin up or down february 27 5pm et	14	$644	540	540	+0	Up	+$64	02-27 22:59
bitcoin up or down on september 14 2026	6	$641	746	746	+0	Up	-$329	09-14 08:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-28 15:45 UTC	8	$639	583	575	+8	Up	-$61	02-28 15:56
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-01 05:00 UTC	2	$633	556	556	+0	Down	+$11	03-01 06:04
bitcoin up or down february 28 6am et	9	$623	585	585	+0	Down	+$23	02-28 11:17
cbb dxst cabap 2026 03 13	2	$611	312	312	+0	California Baptist Lancers	+$12	03-14 05:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 18?	5	$606	468	468	+0	No	+$150	10-18 14:31
nba gsw bos 2026 03 18	2	$597	313	313	+0	Celtics	+$10	03-19 00:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 21:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x224205…
10-30 21:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x203bfd…
10-30 21:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1e82b9…
10-30 20:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$4	0x42c211…
10-30 20:47:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 31?	No	SELL	194	2¢	$5	0x39a0c8…
10-30 18:36:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 31?	No	BUY	194	3¢	$6	0x69863d…
10-30 18:33:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x6f3daa…
10-30 18:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xfb581b…
10-30 18:30:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 31?	No	SELL	1,106	0¢	$4	0x4f6bea…
10-30 18:07:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 31?	No	BUY	1,106	0¢	$6	0xfc5b83…
10-30 17:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x1b4534…
10-30 17:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x4ebfca…
10-30 16:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x9f1418…
10-29 16:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x125110…
10-29 16:09:08	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 29?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x29422f…
10-29 15:38:01	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 29?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x18dd19…
10-29 15:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0xc73173…
10-29 15:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0x57028e…
10-29 15:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0x61c924…
10-29 15:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Down	SELL	42	23¢	$10	0x27051d…
10-29 15:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	42	46¢	$19	0x8797e9…
10-29 14:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd25d81…
10-29 14:48:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xc8cb42…
10-29 14:47:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Down	SELL	35	51¢	$18	0xbf9aa9…
10-29 14:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0xa6a35a…
10-29 14:30:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?	No	SELL	119	15¢	$18	0x3edada…
10-29 14:28:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	119	20¢	$24	0xa7b411…
10-29 14:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$1	0xdeb404…
10-29 14:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	89	31¢	$28	0x1d0d60…
10-29 14:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	89	39¢	$35	0xf15dc5…
10-29 14:23:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	112	34¢	$38	0x7a3d83…
10-29 14:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	112	33¢	$37	0xcaec77…
10-29 14:18:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 31?	No	SELL	4,601	1¢	$37	0x44cafa…
10-29 14:18:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 31?	No	SELL	164	2¢	$3	0x7e8587…
10-29 09:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0x409cdd…
10-29 09:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x79c1da…
10-29 09:10:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-29 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbbe6b8…
10-29 08:56:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0xe24f00…
10-29 08:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3d2167…
10-29 08:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x58688a…
10-29 08:28:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x61017a…
10-29 08:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x9595a1…
10-29 08:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd6d089…
10-29 07:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x49fcc4…
10-29 07:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x283467…
10-29 07:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xd991e5…
10-29 07:29:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x793482…
10-29 07:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x160b87…
10-29 06:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x43c5a1…
10-29 06:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x32599e…
10-29 06:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x20ec48…
10-29 06:18:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 31?	No	BUY	4,765	3¢	$157	0x9ab92c…
10-29 06:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET	Up	SELL	573	31¢	$178	0xc19f3e…
10-29 06:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	51	43¢	$22	0x9681ce…
10-29 06:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x999bf7…
10-29 06:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	273	55¢	$150	0xe39cd3…
10-29 06:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x5db215…
10-29 06:05:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xeecb46…
10-29 05:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	32	73¢	$23	0xf1b4e1…
10-29 05:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xf1500e…
10-29 05:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	18	94¢	$16	0x4f5eb7…
10-29 05:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	83¢	$16	0x74b55d…
10-29 05:39:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	SELL	672	3¢	$19	0xc2c766…
10-29 05:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xe81eb7…
10-29 05:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x7db0dd…
10-29 04:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x24275d…
10-29 04:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x50d570…
10-29 04:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0xc95dbd…
10-29 04:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x2555a3…
10-29 04:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x43b61a…
10-29 03:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0xfad267…
10-29 03:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x32f6fe…
10-29 03:40:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xe9eea6…
10-29 03:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0xe65f77…
10-29 03:13:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?	No	SELL	600	53¢	$318	0x2fa4f8…
10-29 03:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x6ea0be…
10-29 02:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x750b8f…
10-29 02:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x90638a…
10-29 02:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0x1e613b…
10-29 02:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xdc2c59…
10-29 02:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xa0357f…
10-29 01:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x57b926…
10-29 01:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4335ea…
10-29 01:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x2a6291…
10-29 01:11:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9f1e12…
10-29 00:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa6edbf…
10-29 00:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0x6da17d…
10-29 00:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x9e91b9…
10-29 00:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x386f24…
10-29 00:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x89ff85…
10-28 14:47:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	672	7¢	$47	0x1dae71…
10-28 14:46:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?	No	SELL	229	8¢	$18	0x0d9b9c…
10-28 14:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xf6482d…
10-28 14:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x45c8af…
10-28 14:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x9c03c4…
10-28 13:56:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	600	36¢	$216	0x52a1e0…
10-28 13:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$12	0xa34d83…
10-28 13:49:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	229	22¢	$50	0x064e70…
10-28 13:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET	Up	SELL	205	11¢	$22	0x5c013c…
10-28 13:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x94f4cc…