Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.39K

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

88.3%

Resolved

Trades

581

lifetime

Volume

$320.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$552

Open exposure

$88

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-15 03:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Politics

87% 89% -$2,608

Other

13% 97% +$1,220

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us iran ceasefire continues through the midterms	Yes		+100	$76	88¢	$88	+$12	10-15 03:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	16	$20.9K	13,591	13,591	+0	Yes	-$4,543	04-08 02:20
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	10	$19.8K	10,300	10,300	+0	No	+$817	01-27 04:21
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	15	$17.1K	8,697	8,697	+0	No	+$232	03-31 12:24
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	12	$13.8K	6,992	6,992	+0	No	+$135	01-24 17:12
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$13.2K	13,292	0	+13,292	No	+$86	02-25 01:42
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$13.2K	13,206	0	+13,206	No	+$26	02-24 02:37
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$13.2K	13,179	0	+13,179	No	+$13	02-22 03:29
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	12	$13.1K	13,166	0	+13,166	No	+$39	02-21 03:18
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	2	$13.1K	13,116	0	+13,116	No	+$26	02-20 02:40
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$13.1K	13,142	0	+13,142	No	+$79	02-28 02:56
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	13	$12.7K	12,711	0	+12,711	No	+$38	02-27 02:08
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$12.3K	6,290	6,290	+0	No	-$132	02-20 02:40
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	36	$7.5K	3,916	3,916	+0	No	+$196	02-03 13:56
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	19	$6.5K	3,369	3,491	-121	No	+$353	03-31 11:12
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	26	$6.2K	6,657	0	+6,657	No	+$422	01-24 03:35
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	12	$5.4K	2,338	3,138	-800	No	+$54	01-31 22:27
will conservative win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	3	$5.3K	2,672	2,672	+0	No	+$19	03-12 18:42
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	16	$5.3K	4,578	1,156	+3,422	No	+$450	01-23 20:54
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$5.0K	5,038	0	+5,038	Yes	+$28	03-17 10:32
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	7	$5.0K	5,532	0	+5,532	Yes	+$550	04-15 10:14
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$4.9K	5,325	0	+5,325	No	+$472	04-15 10:15
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	4	$4.5K	4,890	0	+4,890	No	+$412	03-14 20:41
will ppso win the most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	3	$4.2K	4,344	0	+4,344	Yes	+$104	02-01 13:35
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	1	$4.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$4	02-18 00:22
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	1	$3.0K	3,026	0	+3,026	Yes	+$9	03-07 10:19
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	1	$3.0K	3,037	0	+3,037	No	+$39	02-18 00:23
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	7	$3.0K	3,171	0	+3,171	No	+$204	04-01 08:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	5	$2.9K	3,017	0	+3,017	No	+$72	03-04 13:40
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	1	$2.8K	3,121	0	+3,121	No	+$281	03-25 21:39
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	8	$2.7K	2,859	0	+2,859	No	+$186	02-18 00:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 03:39:16	us iran ceasefire continues through the midterms	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xb17a08…
10-14 17:26:48	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	398	98¢	$391	0x934328…
10-14 17:20:57	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd3d8c2…
05-04 20:44:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	696	97¢	$672	0xb2f098…
05-04 20:43:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	298	97¢	$289	0x69fa22…
05-04 20:43:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	976	94¢	$921	0x23dbf8…
05-04 20:41:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x036559…
04-19 21:27:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	1,498	98¢	$1,460	0xcd6c19…
04-15 10:32:02	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	584	100¢	$584	0x93ea99…
04-15 10:15:20	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	4,610	91¢	$4,195	0x38804b…
04-15 10:14:54	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xf0cb59…
04-15 10:14:54	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xa73edc…
04-15 10:14:22	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	91¢	$64	0xfbd860…
04-15 10:14:22	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xdacc80…
04-15 10:14:22	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	90	91¢	$82	0x480138…
04-15 10:06:32	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	714	92¢	$657	0x2a6015…
04-15 09:55:50	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	BUY	199	91¢	$181	0x40c31a…
04-15 09:55:44	Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x59e7b1…
04-15 09:54:10	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	135	90¢	$122	0x367858…
04-15 09:54:02	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,127	90¢	$4,614	0x9cc138…
04-08 02:20:59	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	13,591	60¢	$8,167	0x0a8b6f…
04-07 23:45:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0xd73986…
04-07 23:45:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0xc38a80…
04-07 23:45:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xc24085…
04-07 23:45:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	854	2¢	$14	0x5ea1a9…
04-07 23:45:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	300	2¢	$5	0x312711…
04-07 23:45:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	913	2¢	$15	0x74e7af…
04-06 19:17:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	781	99¢	$774	0xe65eb2…
04-06 19:10:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	398	99¢	$395	0x75206a…
04-06 18:24:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	74	97¢	$72	0xbf35c9…
04-06 18:23:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	185	97¢	$180	0x8b7563…
04-06 18:21:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	135	97¢	$132	0xec3639…
04-06 18:20:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	297	97¢	$289	0xe3b6f1…
04-06 17:35:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0xa0e606…
04-06 17:26:51	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0xc9bf57…
04-06 17:24:19	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	199	96¢	$191	0x5f7d89…
04-06 17:18:51	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xaf81c3…
04-06 12:11:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,024	100¢	$1,019	0x98a870…
04-06 12:11:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4f0d62…
04-06 12:10:29	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb4c3d2…
04-06 12:10:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x90115d…
04-06 12:09:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0xb31eee…
04-06 12:08:35	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	363	100¢	$362	0xfc9499…
04-06 10:32:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	597	97¢	$578	0x0dc879…
04-06 10:30:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	398	98¢	$388	0x3c9bd7…
04-06 10:30:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	199	98¢	$194	0x4d492f…
04-06 10:30:09	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	2,531	84¢	$2,126	0x785ced…
04-06 10:29:47	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	573	96¢	$550	0x511388…
04-04 23:34:41	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	26	91¢	$24	0x0e5e6e…
04-04 22:57:25	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x0bbef4…
04-04 22:54:07	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x7bce83…
04-04 22:53:19	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xceb852…
04-04 22:50:59	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x6700fd…
04-04 22:23:51	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	385	91¢	$350	0xf99259…
04-04 22:23:51	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x4dd06a…
04-01 08:07:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	1,441	100¢	$1,440	0x3670d2…
04-01 08:04:35	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	267	99¢	$265	0x27a5a0…
04-01 06:10:19	Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?	No	BUY	249	95¢	$237	0xdcc4ba…
04-01 00:42:15	Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xa217bd…
04-01 00:36:41	Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xd2093a…
04-01 00:25:25	Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x7168b1…
03-31 20:51:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	161	92¢	$148	0x5ab224…
03-31 20:49:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	690	92¢	$638	0x1be92d…
03-31 20:48:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,451	88¢	$1,277	0x5a4f4a…
03-31 20:47:21	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	No	BUY	69	94¢	$65	0x6d8538…
03-31 20:45:45	Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?	No	BUY	230	98¢	$225	0x472632…
03-31 20:45:33	Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?	No	BUY	222	100¢	$221	0x65eb02…
03-31 20:45:23	Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?	No	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x488447…
03-31 20:44:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	4,801	92¢	$4,441	0x82fe56…
03-31 20:43:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	376	92¢	$347	0x8dca40…
03-31 20:29:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	39	92¢	$36	0x12cb60…
03-31 20:25:59	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	637	93¢	$590	0x166e20…
03-31 20:25:27	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	4,216	92¢	$3,882	0x244641…
03-31 20:25:23	will russia join the board of peace	No	BUY	189	100¢	$188	0x8625c3…
03-31 12:24:37	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	SELL	8,697	100¢	$8,688	0x80bce5…
03-31 11:12:33	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	3,491	100¢	$3,487	0x333c4b…
03-26 19:40:25	military action against iran ends by march 27 2026	No	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0xdfb80c…
03-26 18:35:13	military action against iran ends by march 27 2026	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xe24885…
03-25 23:29:53	military action against iran ends by march 27 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x23becf…
03-25 21:39:15	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	3,121	91¢	$2,840	0x7b83ee…
03-25 21:18:49	Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x2c2aac…
03-25 21:06:37	will russia join the board of peace	No	BUY	104	99¢	$103	0xe0d633…
03-25 21:05:33	Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	740	99¢	$731	0xadd143…
03-25 21:05:19	Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	321	98¢	$315	0x40f649…
03-25 21:02:47	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	462	99¢	$458	0x99a3da…
03-25 20:51:37	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3469eb…
03-25 20:39:41	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x19cc92…
03-25 20:30:19	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	859	91¢	$778	0x21bd51…
03-25 20:27:51	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	99	90¢	$89	0x8f955b…
03-25 20:27:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	72	90¢	$65	0x1e7915…
03-25 20:26:45	military action against iran ends by march 27 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xfeaa77…
03-25 20:24:41	military action against iran ends by march 28 2026	No	BUY	171	97¢	$166	0xada2d3…
03-18 17:33:09	will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	915	100¢	$911	0xf54b42…
03-18 14:15:17	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	199	93¢	$185	0xec9d92…
03-17 10:32:43	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	4,817	99¢	$4,793	0x0cb7eb…
03-16 16:14:57	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x9832ae…
03-15 01:22:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	483	99¢	$480	0x3bf865…
03-14 22:34:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	114	99¢	$114	0xb05f62…
03-14 20:42:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	160	85¢	$136	0x0c8bd7…
03-14 20:41:07	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	398	99¢	$396	0x1b4a46…