Lumpy-Arena — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

85.2%

Resolved

101

Trades

697

lifetime

Volume

$272.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$391

Open exposure

$46

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 09-21 20:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Other

81% 58% -$12,372

Tech

8% 100% +$13

Crypto

6% 50% +$1,176

Sports

5% 0% -$60

Politics

1% 100% +$29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+4,000	$24	1¢	$26	+$2	09-21 20:12
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes		+2,641	$48	1¢	$20	-$28	09-17 09:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	42	$72.5K	38,819	38,819	+0	No	+$241	03-09 17:27
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	28	$21.2K	10,632	10,632	+0	No	+$13	05-30 10:20
highest temperature in london on march 16 2026 11c	24	$20.7K	10,466	10,502	-36	No	+$172	03-16 13:16
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$15.3K	14,313	2,313	+12,000	No	+$1,346	06-03 10:34
will backpack launch a token on march 23	19	$15.2K	7,836	7,836	+0	Yes	+$164	03-23 13:40
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$13.3K	60,000	60,000	+0	No	-$60	05-07 08:34
highest temperature in nyc on march 16 2026 54 55f	27	$12.8K	12,978	0	+12,978	Yes	-$12,777	03-16 15:16
highest temperature in london on march 16 2026 10c	4	$9.9K	4,960	4,960	+0	No	+$20	03-16 12:05
highest temperature in nyc on march 16 2026 52 53f	6	$9.4K	4,705	4,705	+0	No	+$4	03-16 14:17
highest temperature in london on march 15 2026 11c	17	$9.0K	4,549	4,549	+0	No	+$137	03-15 11:37
highest temperature in paris on march 15 2026 11c	8	$7.7K	3,877	3,877	+0	No	+$29	03-15 12:36
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	6	$7.1K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$116	03-13 04:25
highest temperature in london on march 12 2026 11c	31	$5.4K	5,555	132	+5,423	No	+$216	03-12 11:28
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	2	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$8	03-11 10:45
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	5	$3.7K	1,878	1,878	+0	Yes	+$9	03-28 10:43
highest temperature in london on march 16 2026 9c	2	$3.2K	3,246	0	+3,246	No	+$10	03-16 07:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$2.6K	4,800	0	+4,800	Yes	+$2,160	09-17 09:35
highest temperature in london on march 11 2026 11c	19	$2.6K	2,685	0	+2,685	No	+$50	03-11 10:30
highest temperature in nyc on march 16 2026 64forhigher	3	$2.4K	2,555	0	+2,555	No	+$112	03-16 13:31
will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by march 31	5	$2.3K	2,352	0	+2,352	No	+$29	03-31 14:29
will axiom be accused of insider trading	1	$2.0K	2,853	0	+2,853	Yes	-$2,000	02-26 09:08
cbb howrd umbc 2026 03 17	2	$2.0K	0	4,000	-4,000	Howard Bison	-$1	03-17 15:28
highest temperature in paris on march 29 2026 9c	2	$2.0K	1,977	0	+1,977	No	+$3	03-29 10:29
highest temperature in london on march 14 2026 8c	3	$1.9K	1,951	0	+1,951	No	+$10	03-13 20:41
highest temperature in london on march 9 2026 17c	16	$1.8K	1,840	0	+1,840	No	+$60	03-09 13:18
highest temperature in london on march 1 2026 11c	4	$1.5K	1,518	0	+1,518	No	+$26	03-01 13:19
highest temperature in london on march 8 2026 13c	10	$1.4K	1,408	0	+1,408	No	+$17	03-08 14:54
fif nep hkg 2026 03 26 draw	10	$1.2K	735	578	+157	Yes	+$26	03-25 11:07
highest temperature in london on march 2 2026 18corhigher	20	$1.1K	1,121	0	+1,121	No	+$22	03-02 14:15
highest temperature in london on march 16 2026 8c	1	$1.1K	1,063	0	+1,063	No	+$1	03-16 07:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 20:12:12	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,000	1¢	$24	0x5610b0…
09-17 09:44:09	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,641	2¢	$48	0x426387…
09-17 09:35:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,800	55¢	$2,640	0x3bd5a2…
09-16 17:26:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	88	14¢	$12	0xb78558…
09-16 17:13:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,321	14¢	$185	0x5a85db…
09-16 17:07:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,561	0¢	$3	0x21cea9…
09-16 17:07:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,561	0¢	$2	0xe8003c…
09-16 09:25:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	699	13¢	$91	0xb1ca5f…
09-15 14:14:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,174	0¢	$2	0x515b95…
09-15 11:54:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,174	0¢	$1	0x3c4ea9…
09-15 10:14:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,040	0¢	$1	0x6c2563…
09-15 10:13:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	543	0¢	$1	0x2efcf0…
09-15 09:47:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	542	0¢	$1	0x13768f…
09-15 08:27:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,087	0¢	$4	0xb2c924…
09-15 08:27:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,087	0¢	$8	0x2c322a…
09-15 04:40:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$12	0xf931a7…
09-15 04:39:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0x11b70b…
09-15 04:36:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	764	13¢	$99	0x313119…
09-15 04:34:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	92	12¢	$11	0x4a9ce5…
09-15 04:25:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	458	13¢	$60	0x44cea2…
06-10 12:48:54	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?	Yes	SELL	527	100¢	$526	0x8cb6f2…
06-03 10:34:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12,000	100¢	$11,964	0x6846a1…
06-01 17:10:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,313	100¢	$2,310	0x322c45…
06-01 16:16:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	687	43¢	$297	0x0c40af…
06-01 16:15:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,626	43¢	$703	0xe2fa29…
05-30 10:20:00	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,086	100¢	$4,082	0x6be0da…
05-27 14:41:50	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6,286	100¢	$6,280	0xabc4f2…
05-27 12:46:12	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	259	100¢	$259	0x3677cc…
05-26 15:09:10	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x494285…
05-25 15:23:11	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	Yes	BUY	163	1¢	$1	0xe8d669…
05-25 15:22:55	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?	Yes	BUY	260	0¢	$1	0x09ee39…
05-25 15:19:34	Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x02704e…
05-25 15:19:23	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x13ea66…
05-25 15:19:13	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf880b2…
05-25 15:18:50	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	307	1¢	$4	0xb80175…
05-25 15:13:25	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x3a3953…
05-25 15:05:13	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	Yes	BUY	363	1¢	$2	0x7c4de1…
05-25 15:04:43	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?	Yes	BUY	363	0¢	$1	0x5a35fa…
05-25 15:04:29	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May?	Yes	BUY	363	1¢	$2	0xbf91c2…
05-25 15:04:17	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x47d002…
05-25 15:04:01	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?	Yes	BUY	363	1¢	$3	0x177cdc…
05-25 15:03:44	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?	Yes	BUY	363	29¢	$104	0x27ef7e…
05-25 15:01:11	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x6ba115…
05-25 15:00:59	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xbf60ef…
05-25 15:00:07	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$1	0x1b155a…
05-25 14:59:53	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$1	0x893a05…
05-25 14:59:39	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?	Yes	BUY	164	26¢	$43	0x135aea…
05-24 15:05:14	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xadc73d…
05-24 04:09:53	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0xa4c23a…
05-23 13:49:26	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x248a4c…
05-23 13:07:35	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x7834de…
05-23 09:15:11	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd951be…
05-23 06:22:22	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x090386…
05-23 00:07:14	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x8b2931…
05-22 20:31:03	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0x207c35…
05-22 15:24:37	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$47	0x8a5a6e…
05-22 13:45:46	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x941269…
05-22 13:22:09	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3429dd…
05-22 12:04:44	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0xcc02f8…
05-22 11:12:04	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x99c4d9…
05-22 04:50:55	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4b2083…
05-22 03:41:19	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x7f1cbd…
05-21 21:54:23	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd32d80…
05-21 18:46:59	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74fb32…
05-21 13:42:40	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	943	100¢	$941	0xa7ffe4…
05-21 12:54:06	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	668	100¢	$667	0x2fdbcd…
05-21 12:39:10	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	252	100¢	$252	0xeb2c72…
05-21 12:34:37	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	616	100¢	$615	0x438855…
05-21 10:25:18	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xdcfa80…
05-21 09:10:57	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0xb5654e…
05-21 07:37:19	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,424	100¢	$3,417	0xb6b612…
05-10 05:21:43	Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30?	Yes	BUY	600	28¢	$170	0x681aab…
05-07 08:34:58	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	60,000	11¢	$6,600	0x0f92c4…
05-06 07:04:02	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	60,000	11¢	$6,660	0xe2eb69…
04-28 14:58:24	Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x80f18e…
04-28 14:53:26	Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x11a46a…
04-28 14:52:10	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on April 28?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$125	0xe3f0a6…
04-28 14:51:56	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on April 28?	No	BUY	239	100¢	$239	0xa3f1e7…
04-28 14:51:46	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C or below on April 28?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x9c7b05…
04-28 14:48:08	Will the lowest temperature in London be 3°C or below on April 28?	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0xe0d6fe…
04-28 14:45:12	Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on April 28?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xcf8ff6…
04-28 13:59:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?	No	SELL	520	100¢	$519	0x7717bf…
04-28 13:22:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x27f5e8…
04-28 13:12:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?	No	BUY	34	76¢	$26	0x3e7d81…
04-28 13:10:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x08bc53…
04-28 13:07:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?	No	BUY	186	87¢	$161	0x41c87d…
04-28 13:04:14	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x0e145d…
04-15 08:22:38	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xee0610…
04-15 08:22:28	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x6f5029…
04-15 08:22:18	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xd9e42f…
04-15 08:22:08	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x62be80…
04-15 08:21:56	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xf47f02…
04-15 08:07:34	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	67	4¢	$3	0xf06ac4…
04-15 08:03:42	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x502f67…
04-15 07:52:16	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x750e55…
04-15 07:50:14	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0xe6ed7f…
04-15 07:44:54	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x4a4552…
04-15 06:42:56	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xa18d3f…
04-15 06:42:46	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x627ff0…
04-15 06:22:40	highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 19c	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x45590a…