Handmade-River — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

397

lifetime

Volume

$135.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$341

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-07 03:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

70% — —

Other

24% — —

Politics

6% 100% +$2

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 94k on january 21	45	$19.8K	10,434	9,406	+1,028	open	—	01-21 15:35
bitcoin above 84k on january 19	4	$13.0K	6,496	6,496	+0	open	—	01-19 08:49
will tran cam tu be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	50	$12.9K	6,523	6,523	+0	open	—	01-21 16:05
bitcoin above 84k on january 20	26	$10.1K	5,051	5,051	+0	open	—	01-20 14:01
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	28	$9.2K	5,100	5,100	+0	open	—	01-21 14:34
bitcoin above 96k on january 20	11	$8.7K	4,371	4,371	+0	open	—	01-20 13:36
bitcoin above 88k on january 21	17	$7.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	01-21 16:20
bitcoin above 88k on january 20	9	$6.3K	3,151	3,151	+0	open	—	01-20 16:46
Elsa FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$4.0K	2,022	2,022	+0	open	—	01-22 04:01
will luong cuong be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	19	$3.4K	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	01-21 15:43
bitcoin above 82k on january 19	1	$3.2K	3,248	0	+3,248	open	—	01-19 10:20
ethereum above 3100 on january 20	1	$3.1K	3,124	0	+3,124	open	—	01-20 16:45
Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?	8	$3.1K	1,548	1,548	+0	open	—	01-20 16:24
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	5	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	01-21 07:39
bitcoin above 96k on january 21	11	$2.9K	1,465	1,465	+0	open	—	01-21 09:30
will phan van giang be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	9	$2.8K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	open	—	01-21 13:59
Elsa FDV above $50M one day after launch?	3	$2.6K	1,322	1,322	+0	open	—	01-22 04:00
bitcoin above 86k on january 19	3	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	01-19 09:38
will the us next strike iran on january 19 2026 et 726	8	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	01-20 12:26
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	01-20 09:10
Seeker FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$1.4K	691	691	+0	open	—	01-21 06:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$569	290	290	+0	open	—	04-07 06:28
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	7	$566	545	545	+0	open	—	04-27 12:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$500	254	254	+0	open	—	02-05 08:40
lol dk gen 2026 04 11	14	$493	600	600	+0	open	—	04-11 11:09
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 300 319	7	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	01-21 05:32
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$280	280	0	+280	open	—	04-14 05:12
spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	2	$258	0	560	-560	open	—	04-07 06:32
Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?	1	$255	256	0	+256	open	—	01-11 16:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$254	255	0	+255	open	—	05-15 06:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 03:40:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	113	99¢	$113	0x31c793…
06-07 03:34:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x6dce90…
05-30 05:55:49	LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x16765d…
05-18 12:46:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0xf974b2…
05-15 06:11:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$144	0x55ae20…
05-15 06:09:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x3b6e3b…
05-15 06:09:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xbc5b3c…
05-15 06:09:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0xb07dea…
05-15 06:09:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x6f4792…
05-15 06:09:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x547173…
05-15 06:09:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x53b826…
05-15 05:46:43	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xef6292…
05-11 09:14:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xfa1eb0…
05-11 09:10:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1f5486…
05-11 09:10:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	182	100¢	$181	0x7345fd…
05-09 00:47:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	230	99¢	$229	0x5bcc9f…
05-04 13:31:36	LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	T1	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xd618cc…
05-04 12:44:48	LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	T1	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x64b5b6…
05-04 12:44:10	LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	T1	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xec3bbc…
05-04 12:44:00	LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	T1	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xa0dce2…
04-29 11:02:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xe15476…
04-27 12:08:12	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	494	52¢	$257	0x8f57da…
04-27 08:19:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x4d6fc8…
04-27 08:13:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	42	44¢	$18	0xe64c73…
04-27 08:11:28	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	52	47¢	$24	0x3ac7dc…
04-27 05:35:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x20c24d…
04-27 05:35:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xcc4882…
04-27 05:35:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x01f7be…
04-24 05:17:08	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0x95f781…
04-24 05:17:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0x29c3b7…
04-24 05:07:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xe8fea6…
04-24 05:07:08	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xbe4402…
04-24 04:47:30	lol fox1 kt 2026 04 24	KT Rolster	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x7753ab…
04-24 04:47:22	lol hle1 drx 2026 04 24	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x0369a7…
04-22 13:55:38	USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x435582…
04-14 05:12:25	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	280	100¢	$280	0x4fc8d0…
04-11 11:09:07	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	41	43¢	$18	0x81555b…
04-11 11:09:05	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x213009…
04-11 11:09:03	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x64598c…
04-11 11:09:01	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	35	43¢	$15	0x3fad70…
04-11 11:08:57	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	26	43¢	$11	0x3c240f…
04-11 10:58:21	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	203	42¢	$85	0x8c82eb…
04-11 10:58:17	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x5da7d8…
04-11 10:57:39	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	119	42¢	$50	0xc4e3e4…
04-11 10:57:37	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	SELL	67	42¢	$28	0x9810c7…
04-11 10:55:49	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	BUY	53	40¢	$21	0x004b20…
04-11 10:55:43	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	BUY	58	40¢	$23	0xcf0c85…
04-11 10:53:55	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x492f89…
04-11 10:53:53	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x70bdea…
04-11 10:52:45	lol dk gen 2026 04 11	Dplus KIA	BUY	468	40¢	$187	0x259206…
04-07 06:32:47	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Down	SELL	280	67¢	$188	0x44c745…
04-07 06:30:53	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Up	SELL	280	25¢	$70	0x1b8135…
04-07 06:28:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	290	97¢	$282	0x815e6b…
04-04 06:24:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	290	99¢	$287	0x505ee4…
03-29 06:04:36	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0xedfefc…
03-24 07:05:35	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0xc73713…
03-21 18:11:31	lol blg jdg 2026 03 21	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	230	95¢	$218	0x9c3efe…
03-17 05:27:11	lol gen jdg 2026 03 17	Gen.G	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x8f6f47…
03-14 13:23:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0xb7a24e…
03-11 05:43:59	will kpop demon hunters win best animated feature film at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x9d508f…
03-10 15:40:37	bitcoin above 76k on march 10	No	BUY	250	100¢	$250	0xacb94d…
03-06 04:51:47	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0x58642f…
03-03 05:36:39	bitcoin above 58k on march 3	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x69e040…
03-03 05:35:13	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	141	79¢	$112	0xe854a7…
03-02 15:55:21	Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	100¢	$139	0xf86507…
03-01 09:49:17	lol gen fox1 2026 03 01	Gen.G	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x08cdb2…
02-27 13:48:05	will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5534ac…
02-27 13:47:39	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x9f9a5d…
02-26 05:41:32	bitcoin above 60k on february 26	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe00e91…
02-26 05:41:24	us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x373a0f…
02-23 08:22:00	will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	No	BUY	112	98¢	$110	0xd6eeeb…
02-23 07:11:40	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	140	75¢	$105	0xb2434f…
02-20 05:46:06	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x2efc7d…
02-20 05:44:18	will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x983926…
02-20 05:43:54	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xc00d87…
02-16 06:06:55	us strikes iran by february 15 2026	No	BUY	240	100¢	$240	0xef9f36…
02-13 03:09:11	will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1c2d96…
02-13 03:08:53	will bangladesh nationalist party win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0xc5f768…
02-12 12:42:31	ethereum above 1700 on february 12	Yes	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0x2d211b…
02-12 12:06:59	ethereum above 1700 on february 12	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2a02ca…
02-11 10:10:33	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb11cfa…
02-11 10:10:07	Superform FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xeabd97…
02-08 13:57:07	Over $10M committed to the Foresee public sale?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe929b2…
02-06 08:48:09	will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x8890c7…
02-06 08:33:37	ethereum above 2300 on february 6	No	BUY	210	100¢	$209	0x9be74e…
02-05 12:22:39	bitcoin above 80k on february 5	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0x338c7e…
02-05 08:42:47	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x2004bf…
02-05 08:40:41	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	254	97¢	$247	0x9d944c…
02-03 04:34:16	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcfa14e…
02-03 04:34:04	bitcoin above 86k on february 3	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x378e2a…
02-03 04:33:48	Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xd2b934…
01-30 12:19:48	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	254	100¢	$253	0x1ae97e…
01-29 08:22:54	Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	189	100¢	$188	0xe741a8…
01-29 08:02:30	Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x5a89fb…
01-29 06:58:42	Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xefcf2d…
01-28 03:27:25	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0xc55566…
01-26 15:20:51	Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x58db15…
01-26 15:16:53	ethereum above 2700 on january 26	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xdf0218…
01-22 05:35:36	Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0x39236b…
01-22 04:01:24	Elsa FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,022	100¢	$2,020	0xf5e2c3…