Total-Ceremony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

Trades

885

lifetime

Volume

$204.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$231

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 08-10 12:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

63% 81% $-1

Politics

30% 100% +$3

Crypto

5% 70% +$22

Sports

2% 75% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	141	$109.8K	58,827	58,827	+0	open	—	07-08 15:44
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	60	$19.3K	19,331	0	+19,331	open	—	06-18 00:06
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	23	$10.1K	5,100	5,100	+0	open	—	07-20 07:24
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	25	$9.7K	5,100	4,639	+461	open	—	05-15 06:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$8.5K	8,544	0	+8,544	open	—	06-04 00:20
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	12	$3.9K	2,080	2,280	-200	open	—	04-19 22:22
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	18	$3.8K	1,927	1,927	+0	open	—	05-18 13:52
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	12	$1.9K	982	982	+0	open	—	05-20 09:02
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	26	$1.7K	15,409	15,409	+0	open	—	05-16 14:13
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	7	$1.2K	800	800	+0	open	—	07-28 22:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-17 13:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	10	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-17 13:39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	14	$1.1K	800	812	-12	open	—	04-19 10:27
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	9	$1.1K	910	410	+500	open	—	05-12 05:04
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	9	$1.0K	1,219	259	+960	open	—	05-16 02:16
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15?	2	$999	500	500	+0	open	—	05-18 12:15
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	4	$998	500	500	+0	open	—	05-18 05:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$991	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-15 11:17
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	3	$985	500	500	+0	open	—	05-18 06:00
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	4	$980	500	500	+0	open	—	05-17 12:35
cs2 nem esc1 2026 04 10	17	$973	611	588	+24	open	—	04-10 14:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$939	500	500	+0	open	—	05-16 14:21
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5	10	$915	500	500	+0	open	—	05-20 00:45
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	11	$821	758	758	+0	open	—	08-08 23:01
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	8	$813	410	410	+0	open	—	05-12 13:36
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	1	$795	800	0	+800	open	—	07-21 05:13
Will Solana reach $120 in May?	5	$771	400	400	+0	open	—	05-18 01:35
will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	23	$668	1,957	397	+1,560	open	—	08-10 12:54
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5	13	$653	410	500	-90	open	—	05-20 02:46
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	2	$635	500	500	+0	open	—	08-08 01:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 12:54:28	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0xd64774…
08-09 00:40:25	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	118	5¢	$6	0x9e184b…
08-09 00:05:36	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	142	3¢	$4	0x148db5…
08-09 00:00:15	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xf6752a…
08-09 00:00:12	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x4739c5…
08-09 00:00:03	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0x06e3db…
08-08 23:41:36	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xaf517a…
08-08 23:01:28	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	500	54¢	$270	0xe832d1…
08-08 22:50:03	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x9ec0be…
08-08 22:49:48	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0xb76acc…
08-08 22:46:33	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x25333c…
08-08 16:20:36	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	500	54¢	$270	0x815dd7…
08-08 15:48:25	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	500	29¢	$145	0x53da3e…
08-08 14:21:19	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	85	23¢	$20	0x76e7a6…
08-08 14:09:31	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	500	36¢	$180	0x2ebf63…
08-08 11:38:45	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	126	55¢	$69	0x72676f…
08-08 09:37:12	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xfbb8b3…
08-08 08:51:46	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	158	38¢	$60	0xaa7f81…
08-08 07:41:36	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	85	55¢	$47	0xdaf811…
08-08 07:33:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	107	38¢	$41	0xc82d2b…
08-08 06:58:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	16	55¢	$9	0x8c56db…
08-08 05:56:37	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	126	54¢	$68	0x536ab0…
08-08 05:18:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	427	37¢	$158	0xe959b6…
08-08 03:48:51	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0x4bc8cd…
08-08 03:15:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa1ac8b…
08-08 03:05:55	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0xab8329…
08-08 02:35:57	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x04331e…
08-08 02:34:55	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0xb8e420…
08-08 02:34:54	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0xa4fe5f…
08-08 02:28:52	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0xecafae…
08-08 02:24:40	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x0dc7d4…
08-08 02:22:52	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x9ef56b…
08-08 01:53:25	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	47	54¢	$25	0x614f6c…
08-08 01:23:09	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	500	64¢	$320	0x880109…
08-08 00:35:21	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	500	63¢	$315	0x78ddc5…
08-06 00:04:21	will carmela conroy advance to the general election for wa 05 20260708200738453	No	SELL	30	5¢	$2	0xbcfab4…
08-05 16:21:26	will carmela conroy advance to the general election for wa 05 20260708200738453	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xddbbd0…
08-05 16:21:23	will carmela conroy advance to the general election for wa 05 20260708200738453	No	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0xfdef4e…
08-05 09:11:09	will carmela conroy advance to the general election for wa 05 20260708200738453	No	BUY	17	27¢	$5	0xcf541e…
08-05 04:04:15	will carmela conroy advance to the general election for wa 05 20260708200738453	No	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xd185ac…
08-05 03:15:03	will carmela conroy advance to the general election for wa 05 20260708200738453	No	BUY	400	34¢	$136	0x82bb2a…
08-03 04:51:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0x27fed9…
08-03 04:50:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xc63e7c…
08-03 04:45:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	71	41¢	$29	0x45fe8a…
08-03 04:45:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	37	41¢	$15	0xa51432…
08-03 04:45:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x45cc7c…
08-03 04:45:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	46	41¢	$19	0x307c98…
08-03 03:31:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0x9fd835…
08-03 02:13:17	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x14615c…
08-02 22:25:35	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xdd59ce…
07-29 13:06:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,000	10¢	$100	0x3df13d…
07-28 22:45:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x2b0a9d…
07-28 22:45:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	300	76¢	$228	0x2242f8…
07-28 22:42:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	400	72¢	$288	0xe29313…
07-28 22:33:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	117	81¢	$95	0x5a457b…
07-28 22:32:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xd5500c…
07-28 22:32:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	83	81¢	$67	0x201771…
07-28 22:31:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0x514bc3…
07-28 22:14:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0xf4234e…
07-24 01:11:07	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x456763…
07-21 11:04:30	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x970e0b…
07-21 05:13:18	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	800	99¢	$795	0x781b15…
07-20 07:24:58	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	4,100	99¢	$4,075	0x398663…
07-20 06:34:39	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x895bd4…
07-20 06:32:06	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xcb5b42…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xf1b266…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcbfbfc…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc3db0b…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa90062…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6acaa7…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3e03f4…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x39b6f2…
07-20 06:29:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x257e09…
07-20 06:25:49	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	338	100¢	$336	0x64dd0c…
07-20 06:19:48	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xc17509…
07-20 06:16:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0xc1f098…
07-20 06:07:06	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	356	100¢	$354	0x756423…
07-20 06:06:36	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	232	100¢	$231	0x3f710e…
07-20 06:06:10	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x36bdac…
07-20 06:05:19	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x4bfd38…
07-20 06:05:12	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	244	99¢	$243	0xeac3b3…
07-20 06:04:46	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x964b5f…
07-20 06:04:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	680	99¢	$675	0x4b03bc…
07-08 15:44:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	8,396	96¢	$8,077	0x4e0bad…
07-08 11:56:52	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	1,620	95¢	$1,544	0x2f295a…
07-08 11:56:07	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	180	95¢	$172	0x3e2d10…
07-08 11:54:56	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x13b7b8…
07-08 11:54:52	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xe56373…
07-08 11:54:47	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	2,000	95¢	$1,904	0xc51bee…
07-08 11:04:25	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	321	95¢	$305	0x370bd9…
07-08 10:13:52	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	147	95¢	$140	0x04b08e…
07-08 10:01:32	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x8ab935…
07-08 09:49:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x0726e1…
07-08 08:57:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	510	95¢	$485	0xdeb542…
07-08 05:25:28	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x05020b…
07-08 05:18:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x228091…
07-08 05:06:34	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xcef81b…
07-08 03:08:14	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xdee087…
07-08 01:47:20	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	665	95¢	$632	0xf6c94a…
07-08 00:53:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	335	95¢	$319	0x5e9d15…