Full-Complicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$144

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved

580

Trades

2,378

lifetime

Volume

$13.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-21 10:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Other

74% 36% -$133

Politics

19% 25% -$13

Tech

5% 33% $0

Crypto

1% 32% +$11

Sports

1% 29% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$1.1K	650	650	+0	open	—	10-13 17:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	7	$1.0K	650	650	+0	Yes	+$0	10-14 10:23
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	4	$882	600	600	+0	open	—	10-17 13:44
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	3	$816	600	600	+0	No	+$0	10-21 10:45
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	2	$728	650	650	+0	open	—	10-14 20:24
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	2	$588	600	600	+0	open	—	10-17 08:22
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$421	650	650	+0	open	—	10-13 04:43
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	2	$378	202	202	+0	open	—	10-20 15:22
next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	32	$337	261	261	+0	No	+$10	08-31 13:58
Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-24?	16	$313	442	181	+261	No	+$151	09-24 19:03
will pumpfun be accused of insider trading	12	$263	155	151	+4	No	+$12	02-26 13:41
LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	2	$219	300	300	+0	MVK Esports	+$3	10-17 18:50
next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	4	$210	600	600	+0	open	—	10-17 13:38
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	14	$203	145	145	+0	No	-$38	10-11 12:26
will indiana enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	2	$188	650	650	+0	open	—	10-20 22:18
Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?	11	$170	481	20	+461	Yes	-$131	09-06 18:13
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	6	$150	600	600	+0	open	—	10-15 11:42
Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	12	$145	286	0	+286	No	-$145	10-02 11:53
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	5	$143	80	80	+0	FUT Esports	+$17	04-29 16:58
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	8	$112	60	60	+0	Vitality	+$6	10-09 13:24
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 - Map 2 Winner	11	$110	70	70	+0	Spirit	+$10	10-07 20:17
cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 10 05 game2	9	$99	80	80	+0	MOUZ	+$4	10-05 16:08
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner	12	$95	80	80	+0	ShindeN	-$6	10-03 13:05
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner	6	$95	50	50	+0	Aurora Gaming	+$4	10-06 17:41
will paradex launch a token on march 5	10	$94	152	95	+57	Yes	-$45	03-05 17:21
cs2 vit mglz 2026 02 15 total games 2pt5	4	$87	53	53	+0	Over	+$1	02-15 18:49
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner	10	$85	60	60	+0	1WIN	+$19	10-06 13:53
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner	10	$82	60	60	+0	Team Falcons	+$26	10-03 09:55
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	10	$81	60	40	+20	Vitality	+$6	10-10 16:45
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	10	$77	67	67	+0	PARIVISION	-$9	10-06 15:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 10:45:47	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	600	68¢	$408	0xb53798…
10-21 10:11:42	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	288	68¢	$196	0xac136d…
10-21 10:11:42	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	312	68¢	$212	0x5bce15…
10-20 22:18:53	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	650	13¢	$84	0x873065…
10-20 15:22:17	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	SELL	202	94¢	$189	0xba3d97…
10-20 15:00:38	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	202	94¢	$189	0x36e2d9…
10-17 18:50:48	LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	FURIA Esports	SELL	300	37¢	$111	0x2c8a82…
10-17 18:50:03	LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	FURIA Esports	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0xfe234f…
10-17 13:44:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	600	73¢	$438	0x4e574f…
10-17 13:38:14	next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	600	19¢	$114	0x3813f3…
10-17 13:28:14	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xd2e332…
10-17 13:28:14	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x16f666…
10-17 13:28:14	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x078b70…
10-17 13:07:29	next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x855544…
10-17 13:04:29	next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	300	16¢	$48	0x71c0f1…
10-17 13:04:08	next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	295	16¢	$47	0x5ab0f0…
10-17 08:22:20	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	600	49¢	$294	0x4faaf0…
10-17 07:33:56	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	600	49¢	$294	0x133e50…
10-15 11:42:13	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	525	11¢	$57	0x7c7228…
10-15 09:48:04	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0x7dd07a…
10-15 08:12:13	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xa365e2…
10-15 07:40:31	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x40c68c…
10-15 07:36:11	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x888c4f…
10-15 06:19:10	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	600	14¢	$83	0xcb13e6…
10-14 23:41:01	will indiana enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	650	16¢	$104	0x6d8d83…
10-14 20:24:54	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	Yes	SELL	650	55¢	$358	0xc5a50e…
10-14 17:29:31	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	Yes	BUY	650	57¢	$370	0x900ec7…
10-14 10:23:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xacfadd…
10-14 10:23:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xcd917f…
10-14 10:23:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x662bac…
10-14 10:22:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	80¢	$23	0x38f902…
10-14 10:22:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xbacca3…
10-14 10:22:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	510	80¢	$408	0x619aeb…
10-14 10:22:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	650	80¢	$520	0x21143a…
10-13 17:16:12	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	650	85¢	$552	0xf4e458…
10-13 16:04:51	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	650	81¢	$526	0x095a62…
10-13 15:41:15	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	No	SELL	19	79¢	$15	0xff4372…
10-13 15:38:46	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xc80df9…
10-13 04:43:39	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	650	32¢	$206	0x704e0a…
10-12 20:53:36	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	650	33¢	$215	0xd01fc5…
10-11 18:01:39	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	MOUZ	SELL	25	57¢	$14	0xd24aa1…
10-11 17:59:42	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf9bb9a…
10-11 17:58:03	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x0ecced…
10-11 17:57:12	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x5fe7fe…
10-11 17:55:15	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x61629f…
10-11 17:51:30	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	Vitality	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x8da0ce…
10-11 17:50:54	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	Vitality	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0xab1b2a…
10-11 17:42:06	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	Vitality	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x9186a9…
10-11 17:37:27	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	Vitality	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xca9696…
10-11 17:28:52	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner	Vitality	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xb6e9c9…
10-11 17:10:18	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	MOUZ	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x92a310…
10-11 16:53:25	Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5	Over	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xd5d6f6…
10-11 16:52:40	Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x048aca…
10-11 16:51:18	Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x3138b9…
10-11 16:48:33	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x90cf90…
10-11 16:44:12	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x090f79…
10-11 16:42:25	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf76314…
10-11 16:41:30	cs2 vit mouz 2026 10 11 game2	MOUZ	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x2b5e83…
10-11 16:41:04	cs2 vit mouz 2026 10 11 game2	Vitality	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x0af119…
10-11 16:37:46	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x157216…
10-11 16:36:28	Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x15bf6a…
10-11 16:18:36	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x6ddefe…
10-11 16:10:30	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x695e92…
10-11 16:07:09	Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x23944c…
10-11 15:56:40	Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x55e4f7…
10-11 15:49:06	cs2 vit mouz 2026 10 11 game1	Vitality	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0abf87…
10-11 15:45:48	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x15c078…
10-11 15:43:22	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	MOUZ	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xd91272…
10-11 15:43:15	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xa09a5c…
10-11 15:33:28	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x0e4d93…
10-11 15:32:39	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x50af1b…
10-11 13:26:31	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 10 11 game2	Aurora Gaming	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x07beaa…
10-11 13:18:27	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 10 11 game2	Aurora Gaming	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x5e01ef…
10-11 13:15:07	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Aurora Gaming	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xcd5156…
10-11 12:56:52	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Spirit	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x762b33…
10-11 12:55:25	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Spirit	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x6ca180…
10-11 12:48:34	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Spirit	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xeb448a…
10-11 12:27:58	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 10 11	Spirit	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x25894f…
10-11 12:26:52	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	25	49¢	$12	0xeba497…
10-11 12:25:58	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xc7a557…
10-11 12:25:58	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x638d62…
10-11 12:25:34	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	19	44¢	$8	0xe7c7e2…
10-11 12:24:06	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xe8e4e5…
10-11 12:23:51	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	17	43¢	$7	0xc5db9f…
10-11 12:13:12	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xeb8677…
10-11 12:00:03	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0x0340bb…
10-11 11:50:43	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0x2f8a1c…
10-11 11:50:43	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x065610…
10-11 11:50:42	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	39	82¢	$32	0x08ddb5…
10-11 11:24:09	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x301132…
10-11 11:23:50	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x7c8335…
10-11 11:19:39	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x311f8e…
10-11 11:18:27	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$35	0x4809eb…
10-11 11:18:26	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0x0ba440…
10-10 21:12:52	Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xa0f1c9…
10-10 19:41:30	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Spirit	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x4425cb…
10-10 18:34:42	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Spirit	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xf9aee3…
10-10 18:13:52	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xd474d5…
10-10 18:12:34	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x96f4b8…
10-10 18:08:15	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0x7f5c3f…