Quarterly-Thorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

156

lifetime

Volume

$54.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$351

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 06-09 14:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 100% +$3

Politics

2% — —

Other

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 78k on april 17	5	$1.7K	1,103	1,102	+1	open	—	04-17 14:44
bitcoin above 76k on april 12	4	$1.5K	1,499	0	+1,499	open	—	04-12 00:09
bitcoin above 68k on march 13	4	$1.5K	1,475	0	+1,475	open	—	03-13 08:50
bitcoin above 74k on march 12	8	$1.5K	1,467	0	+1,467	open	—	03-12 03:14
bitcoin above 66k on march 10	1	$1.5K	1,467	0	+1,467	open	—	03-10 06:40
will bitcoin reach 72k on march 9	1	$1.4K	1,452	0	+1,452	open	—	03-10 03:11
bitcoin above 66k on march 7	2	$1.4K	1,418	0	+1,418	open	—	03-07 11:43
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$1.4K	1,454	0	+1,454	open	—	03-31 10:37
bitcoin above 70k on april 10	1	$1.4K	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	04-10 13:34
bitcoin above 64k on march 29	6	$1.4K	1,390	0	+1,390	open	—	03-29 08:54
bitcoin above 74k on march 26	4	$1.4K	1,374	0	+1,374	open	—	03-26 07:22
bitcoin above 68k on march 25	27	$1.4K	1,370	0	+1,370	open	—	03-25 10:34
bitcoin above 62k on february 16	1	$1.4K	1,352	0	+1,352	open	—	02-16 07:53
bitcoin above 76k on february 15	1	$1.3K	1,350	0	+1,350	open	—	02-15 04:10
will ethereum reach 3600 in january 2026	1	$1.3K	1,349	0	+1,349	open	—	01-30 08:14
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$1.2K	1,163	0	+1,163	open	—	03-24 08:45
will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on march 6	1	$1.2K	1,155	0	+1,155	open	—	03-06 06:33
bitcoin above 64k on march 23	1	$1.2K	1,156	0	+1,156	open	—	03-23 10:13
bitcoin above 74k on march 20	1	$1.1K	1,132	0	+1,132	open	—	03-20 06:47
bitcoin above 64k on march 8	1	$1.1K	1,134	0	+1,134	open	—	03-08 12:32
bitcoin above 66k on march 22	2	$1.1K	1,132	0	+1,132	open	—	03-22 11:57
ethereum above 2300 on february 21	1	$1.1K	1,103	0	+1,103	open	—	02-21 06:18
bitcoin above 78k on march 18	1	$1.1K	1,115	0	+1,115	open	—	03-18 00:03
bitcoin above 78k on march 17	1	$1.1K	1,111	0	+1,111	open	—	03-17 06:12
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3?	1	$1.1K	1,096	0	+1,096	open	—	05-03 13:55
bitcoin above 68k on april 15	2	$1.1K	1,089	0	+1,089	open	—	04-14 19:41
bitcoin above 80k on april 16	1	$1.1K	1,090	0	+1,090	open	—	04-15 20:30
bitcoin above 68k on march 16	1	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-16 05:37
bitcoin above 64k on june 9 2026	1	$970	971	0	+971	open	—	06-09 14:45
bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	1	$947	950	0	+950	open	—	06-05 02:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 14:45:04	bitcoin above 64k on june 9 2026	No	BUY	971	100¢	$970	0xe942e6…
06-06 19:35:42	bitcoin above 68k on june 7 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb374f4…
06-06 19:35:34	bitcoin above 66k on june 7 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x551847…
06-05 02:54:58	bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	950	100¢	$947	0xb94fe8…
05-22 01:44:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	No	BUY	652	100¢	$650	0xe3e728…
05-06 15:50:46	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x4805cc…
05-06 15:47:21	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0xa11877…
05-06 15:45:41	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	205	98¢	$200	0x9538f7…
05-04 13:53:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	694	100¢	$692	0x2ac44a…
05-04 13:23:32	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,950 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xb86578…
05-04 13:22:16	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa5d1c8…
05-03 13:55:50	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	1,096	100¢	$1,095	0xd31d3a…
04-23 21:58:00	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	670	97¢	$648	0x00593f…
04-22 19:45:22	USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xc61c24…
04-21 22:20:06	bitcoin above 80k on april 22	No	BUY	597	100¢	$595	0xc6f799…
04-21 01:23:56	USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x23fe7c…
04-20 00:19:34	will bitcoin reach 78k on april 19	No	BUY	613	100¢	$612	0xbae8ff…
04-17 16:05:12	bitcoin above 74k on april 18	Yes	BUY	596	98¢	$585	0xe68344…
04-17 16:04:26	bitcoin above 74k on april 18	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x4da3e3…
04-17 14:44:04	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	No	SELL	83	54¢	$45	0x5eae07…
04-17 14:43:56	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	No	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x28daff…
04-17 14:43:56	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	No	SELL	396	54¢	$215	0x061136…
04-17 14:43:54	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	No	SELL	617	54¢	$335	0x96fce2…
04-17 00:27:54	bitcoin above 78k on april 17	No	BUY	1,103	99¢	$1,090	0x8c8b3b…
04-15 20:31:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xb56dce…
04-15 20:30:40	bitcoin above 80k on april 16	No	BUY	1,090	99¢	$1,081	0x822c44…
04-14 19:41:18	bitcoin above 68k on april 15	Yes	BUY	1,059	100¢	$1,056	0x43c853…
04-14 17:52:26	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	418	99¢	$415	0xbcdbad…
04-14 17:51:26	bitcoin above 68k on april 15	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa842d4…
04-12 00:09:13	bitcoin above 76k on april 12	No	BUY	204	99¢	$202	0xa00556…
04-12 00:08:53	bitcoin above 76k on april 12	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0xde1ef2…
04-11 23:44:01	bitcoin above 76k on april 12	No	BUY	592	99¢	$585	0x80328f…
04-11 23:43:49	bitcoin above 76k on april 12	No	BUY	619	99¢	$612	0xeb8341…
04-10 13:34:35	bitcoin above 70k on april 10	Yes	BUY	1,400	99¢	$1,383	0x1e1cf0…
04-06 17:13:51	bitcoin above 64k on april 7	Yes	BUY	286	99¢	$284	0x33f4e8…
04-06 17:10:23	bitcoin above 64k on april 7	Yes	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x995def…
04-06 16:42:07	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	168	98¢	$166	0x29177e…
04-06 16:41:29	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0xa664a8…
04-06 16:41:09	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7d3363…
04-06 16:41:05	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf112ea…
04-06 16:41:05	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe8256a…
04-06 16:41:05	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe6130d…
04-06 16:41:05	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x5d70b7…
04-06 16:41:05	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x455b9f…
04-06 16:41:05	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3d0fcc…
04-06 16:23:55	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x22a94d…
04-06 16:17:43	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	175	98¢	$172	0x1d573b…
04-06 16:17:41	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	140	98¢	$138	0x07c7d5…
04-06 16:17:37	will bitcoin dip to 65k on april 6	No	BUY	140	98¢	$138	0x8f98ed…
03-31 10:37:01	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,454	96¢	$1,396	0x896751…
03-29 08:54:18	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	466	99¢	$463	0x10fb01…
03-29 08:50:58	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	67	99¢	$67	0x78cb97…
03-29 08:40:10	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x294438…
03-29 08:37:30	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x015f48…
03-29 08:31:32	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x8c72f7…
03-29 08:30:38	bitcoin above 64k on march 29	Yes	BUY	685	99¢	$680	0x1aa998…
03-26 07:22:11	bitcoin above 74k on march 26	No	BUY	148	99¢	$146	0xb4643a…
03-26 07:21:29	bitcoin above 74k on march 26	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xd30b44…
03-26 07:20:43	bitcoin above 74k on march 26	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x67a04c…
03-26 07:20:37	bitcoin above 74k on march 26	No	BUY	1,114	99¢	$1,104	0x38c87c…
03-25 10:34:09	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	552	99¢	$548	0x4cc16a…
03-25 10:32:23	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	83	99¢	$83	0xc201dc…
03-25 10:32:19	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$66	0xaed971…
03-25 10:31:23	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xfb41ee…
03-25 10:31:21	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x996717…
03-25 10:30:31	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x9640fe…
03-25 10:30:31	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x5635aa…
03-25 10:30:31	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x0f7b00…
03-25 10:30:29	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbfe7d6…
03-25 10:27:25	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7de151…
03-25 10:26:17	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x356fbd…
03-25 10:12:23	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x094678…
03-25 10:10:53	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x2f9bde…
03-25 10:10:13	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x82fe31…
03-25 10:08:41	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4f1a11…
03-25 10:08:33	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe28465…
03-25 10:08:33	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x59ead1…
03-25 10:08:29	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x54263c…
03-25 10:08:29	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x4f65a2…
03-25 10:08:27	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x49e52b…
03-25 10:08:23	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x45e0d7…
03-25 10:07:17	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x8477f7…
03-25 10:07:17	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0x6757a5…
03-25 10:07:13	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe694fb…
03-25 10:06:11	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x230fe3…
03-25 10:04:05	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe9e80a…
03-25 10:02:51	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	201	99¢	$199	0x0702e6…
03-24 08:45:45	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,163	99¢	$1,156	0x554577…
03-23 10:13:37	bitcoin above 64k on march 23	Yes	BUY	1,156	100¢	$1,154	0xcf79c4…
03-22 11:57:51	bitcoin above 66k on march 22	Yes	BUY	354	98¢	$347	0x73b4cb…
03-22 11:56:11	bitcoin above 66k on march 22	Yes	BUY	779	98¢	$764	0x81c4fc…
03-20 06:47:05	bitcoin above 74k on march 20	No	BUY	1,132	99¢	$1,125	0xd0b53e…
03-18 00:03:07	bitcoin above 78k on march 18	No	BUY	1,115	99¢	$1,101	0xaadce6…
03-18 00:02:57	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4bfaca…
03-17 06:12:11	bitcoin above 78k on march 17	No	BUY	1,111	99¢	$1,098	0x9c1dd2…
03-16 15:33:45	USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x8a9327…
03-16 15:29:55	USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x1103f4…
03-16 15:09:23	USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x022e2e…
03-16 06:53:51	Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x838368…
03-16 05:37:53	bitcoin above 68k on march 16	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x741b30…