Fat-Daffodil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$192

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.1%

Resolved

1,556

Trades

2,540

lifetime

Volume

$70.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 09-14 18:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Other

91% 91% +$1,204

Politics

6% 69% -$639

Crypto

2% 91% -$791

Tech

0% 100% +$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in ankara on february 22 2026 8c	12	$2.0K	1,001	1,001	+0	No	+$14	02-22 18:28
highest temperature in chicago on february 23 2026 36 37f	3	$1.7K	860	859	+0	No	+$8	02-23 21:16
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$1.5K	770	770	+0	No	+$12	02-23 04:07
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	9	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$4	02-24 02:31
highest temperature in seoul on february 22 2026 12corhigher	7	$1.0K	495	528	-33	No	+$9	02-22 11:32
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 27?	3	$753	388	388	+0	No	+$22	05-27 23:44
highest temperature in paris on february 20 2026 12c	4	$744	790	0	+790	No	+$46	02-20 12:30
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 17?	1	$716	754	0	+754	No	+$38	05-17 08:42
highest temperature in ankara on february 20 2026 9c	12	$698	738	0	+738	No	+$40	02-20 12:21
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	9	$680	417	417	+0	Yes	+$12	02-24 11:21
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 24?	1	$658	685	0	+685	No	+$27	05-24 12:47
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 1?	1	$615	635	0	+635	No	+$20	07-01 15:08
highest temperature in london on february 22 2026 16c	2	$595	300	300	+0	No	+$4	02-22 18:16
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 27?	3	$439	231	231	+0	No	+$23	05-27 23:44
highest temperature in chicago on february 24 2026 44 45f	5	$388	200	200	+0	No	+$12	02-25 05:10
highest temperature in london on february 25 2026 20corhigher	4	$388	200	200	+0	No	+$12	02-25 18:56
highest temperature in miami on february 25 2026 68 69f	4	$356	161	200	-39	No	+$4	02-25 18:56
highest temperature in ankara on february 20 2026 11c	1	$330	331	0	+331	Yes	+$1	02-20 16:06
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	4	$328	400	0	+400	Yes	-$328	02-27 22:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 19:25 UTC	6	$321	248	146	+101	Up	+$20	06-28 19:29
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 23?	2	$320	368	0	+368	No	+$48	05-22 18:59
highest temperature in london on february 20 2026 13corhigher	1	$306	316	0	+316	No	+$10	02-20 16:43
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 10?	1	$299	310	0	+310	No	+$11	07-10 16:08
will russia strike kyiv on march 31 2026	4	$298	96	246	-150	No	-$10	03-06 12:12
iran strike on israel by february 28	5	$277	307	0	+307	Yes	-$277	02-27 23:04
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12?	11	$266	322	0	+322	No	+$57	06-12 16:05
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22?	3	$259	274	0	+274	No	+$15	06-22 09:18
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12?	3	$257	130	130	+0	No	+$2	06-12 07:02
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 11?	1	$254	268	0	+268	Yes	+$14	07-12 00:25
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 9?	3	$243	251	0	+251	No	+$8	05-09 11:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-14 18:44:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:40 UTC	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x0d50b9…
09-12 22:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xf13963…
09-12 18:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xef4a28…
09-09 09:14:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-09 09:10 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x59d45b…
09-08 08:59:16	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x5b1d3d…
09-08 05:39:40	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x197b84…
09-08 03:44:31	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x56ce23…
09-08 03:29:25	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xdea00d…
09-08 01:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xef3f03…
09-07 16:19:43	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xc22db0…
09-07 14:59:45	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xe06e31…
09-07 10:49:31	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xf804ef…
09-07 06:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xcc3c27…
09-06 20:54:37	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x425419…
09-06 18:14:31	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xf31619…
09-05 16:14:21	Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x4d63a5…
09-05 15:39:37	Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xc20765…
09-05 13:44:13	Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x29907d…
09-01 07:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xc74964…
08-31 05:29:30	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:25 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x541d6e…
08-30 08:49:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 08:45 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x1e0038…
08-30 01:34:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 01:30 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xc0cef6…
08-30 00:34:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 00:30 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x705dc8…
08-28 12:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x79b962…
08-28 06:44:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 06:40 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x9026db…
08-28 02:29:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 02:25 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xfe1777…
08-27 22:59:36	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 22:55 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x67c638…
08-27 10:19:16	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 10:15 UTC	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xf167a6…
08-23 08:29:37	Ethereum Up or Down - August 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x5ffa74…
08-22 22:44:09	Ethereum Up or Down - August 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x74389f…
08-11 03:59:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 03:55 UTC	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x18b646…
08-10 18:54:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 18:50 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x7514fe…
08-08 14:59:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 14:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x4d334c…
08-07 21:49:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 21:45 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x199698…
08-06 23:49:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 23:45 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x3904b9…
08-06 23:10:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 23:05 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x1cdc55…
08-06 23:04:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 23:00 UTC	Down	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x6e0543…
08-06 21:40:00	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 21:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xdea96d…
08-06 16:29:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 16:25 UTC	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x054789…
08-06 03:34:33	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 03:30 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x4bfc02…
08-06 00:44:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 00:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x93aa91…
08-06 00:44:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 00:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xf2f454…
08-05 18:29:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 18:25 UTC	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xe623e4…
08-05 05:54:53	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 05:50 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xd79f44…
08-05 04:59:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 04:55 UTC	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x5b8edb…
08-05 03:49:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 03:45 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x72233e…
08-05 01:00:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 00:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x89651f…
08-04 22:49:48	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:45 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x49f0e2…
08-04 22:49:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:45 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x557bc1…
08-04 11:59:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 11:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x72caaf…
08-04 09:39:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 09:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x728c61…
08-04 09:19:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 09:15 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x85100d…
08-04 07:34:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 07:30 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x9aa4d6…
08-04 04:14:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 04:10 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x865b43…
08-03 23:39:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 23:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x45c5bf…
08-03 21:34:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 21:30 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x0529c7…
08-03 20:24:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 20:20 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xdf3363…
08-03 17:34:36	Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x6feee1…
08-03 09:29:48	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 09:25 UTC	Down	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x18c870…
08-03 07:54:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:50 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xebf95d…
08-03 05:44:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 05:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x42653e…
08-03 04:44:42	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 04:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x8f35d3…
08-03 04:44:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 04:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xb399af…
08-03 03:39:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xeb4748…
08-03 03:39:24	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x560815…
08-02 15:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xb317c6…
08-02 15:04:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 15:00 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x6c3bf6…
08-02 14:24:51	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 14:20 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x961ea6…
08-02 14:24:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 14:20 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x7ef467…
08-02 05:44:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 05:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xc1111e…
08-01 22:24:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 22:20 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x1aa13b…
08-01 18:00:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 17:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xea6687…
08-01 17:04:56	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x6d57bb…
08-01 10:19:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 10:15 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xf0277c…
08-01 10:19:32	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 10:15 UTC	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xaa59ea…
08-01 08:54:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:50 UTC	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x0c22db…
08-01 07:34:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 07:30 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x8b4435…
08-01 03:14:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 03:10 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xb993c2…
08-01 01:39:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 01:35 UTC	Down	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x1f1e3d…
07-31 17:34:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 17:30 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xd3c2cb…
07-30 21:14:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 21:10 UTC	Up	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x81797a…
07-30 18:54:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 18:50 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x006322…
07-30 16:59:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 16:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xfd2487…
07-30 15:49:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 15:45 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x52ea93…
07-30 14:19:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 14:15 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x6b2e4a…
07-30 13:25:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 13:20 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x0d622f…
07-30 11:14:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 11:10 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x4d6a57…
07-30 10:34:36	Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xfd6c1a…
07-30 09:34:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 09:30 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x7e934d…
07-30 09:29:24	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 09:25 UTC	Down	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x206170…
07-30 09:09:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 09:05 UTC	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xb079b7…
07-30 08:54:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:50 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x94df30…
07-30 08:39:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x1d6568…
07-30 08:39:36	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 08:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x173bbf…
07-30 07:39:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 07:35 UTC	Down	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xe1586c…
07-30 06:45:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 06:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xaa3696…
07-30 05:04:12	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 05:00 UTC	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x107d04…
07-30 04:49:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 04:45 UTC	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x3a005f…
07-30 04:39:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 04:35 UTC	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x55fbcb…
07-30 03:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x90b58d…