Actual-Glockenspiel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.5%

Resolved

432

Trades

790

lifetime

Volume

$11.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 10-19 17:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Other

76% 80% +$2

Crypto

19% 77% +$1

Politics

3% 71% +$0

Tech

1% 67% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 62k on july 23 2026	3	$100	50	50	+0	Yes	$0	07-23 06:10
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on July 30?	3	$76	38	38	+0	No	$0	07-30 03:41
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on July 21?	4	$73	37	37	+0	No	+$0	07-21 12:04
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C on May 30?	5	$71	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-29 15:44
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	07-31 16:01
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 19?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-19 03:58
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on July 26?	3	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-25 09:16
will bitcoin reach 68k on july 19	3	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-19 20:53
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on October 12?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$0	10-12 12:24
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 22?	2	$67	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-21 14:05
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 31?	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-30 22:10
iran full airspace closure by july 27	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-27 23:07
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 29?	3	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-28 06:07
ethereum above 1700 on july 28 2026	2	$63	32	32	+0	Yes	$0	07-27 23:08
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	4	$63	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-19 09:50
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on July 25?	7	$63	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-24 16:33
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 4m?	4	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	05-03 16:26
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 19?	2	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-19 00:25
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on July 28?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-27 17:38
Will "The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	$0	07-27 17:40
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	3	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-21 18:51
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	4	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-26 05:48
will bitcoin dip to 62k on july 18	4	$59	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-19 00:41
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31?	5	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-31 21:58
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-25 08:01
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-19 22:23
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 27?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-26 19:31
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 5-11?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	10-12 00:05
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 27?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-27 10:11
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 28?	4	$55	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-27 03:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 17:26:50	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 20?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9ace09…
10-18 21:06:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$24	0x231465…
10-13 07:30:34	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 13?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x27ed63…
10-13 01:30:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x50f91b…
10-12 13:33:56	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on October 12?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x1ba3ad…
10-12 12:24:09	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on October 12?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$33	0x77e3e3…
10-12 08:45:12	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x5d7f40…
10-12 00:38:08	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8c58fd…
10-12 00:05:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 5-11?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xa9dcd7…
10-11 20:56:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 5-11?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xf18e9d…
10-10 06:58:16	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 9°C or below on October 10?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb9686e…
10-10 00:55:28	Will Tomáš Morávek be the next Mayor of Plzeň?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0xb15f36…
10-05 09:27:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 5?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xa61620…
10-02 03:22:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf0e19d…
10-01 23:13:41	ethereum above 3100 on october 2 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd02731…
10-01 04:17:35	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 1?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$32	0xd2d33f…
09-28 04:21:08	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0f5425…
09-27 18:55:03	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on September 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x77578d…
09-23 20:04:41	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on September 24?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0x3b45af…
09-23 05:51:55	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5c2a5c…
09-23 04:22:44	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on September 23?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5b3293…
09-22 19:17:31	Will Gabby Williams have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x98211a…
09-22 16:14:21	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0xbf6726…
09-22 01:08:49	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on September 22?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc868f2…
09-18 17:42:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 18?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x7686c1…
09-18 01:24:46	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 18?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xb9df27…
09-17 16:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 18?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xcde04d…
09-13 04:53:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 13?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1125ab…
09-11 02:09:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 11?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xf14501…
09-10 20:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7cee6f…
09-07 15:05:36	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C or higher on September 8?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x726cc7…
09-06 21:02:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 7?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xd04cb8…
09-06 04:57:34	Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x810d96…
09-06 00:06:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb84db5…
09-05 09:12:31	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on September 5?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4be3a1…
09-05 03:29:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf9e8f8…
09-04 21:29:51	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x04213b…
09-04 19:05:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 5?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x58d6ec…
09-04 07:34:33	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 4?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x156540…
09-04 01:17:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xd95fa5…
09-03 08:53:22	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on September 3?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xebad5d…
09-03 02:04:28	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 3?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x45471a…
09-02 21:52:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 3?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x8e9b9f…
09-02 21:14:28	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on September 3?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x16cfdb…
09-02 10:03:33	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x89d9a5…
09-02 07:13:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 2?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x5e39ce…
09-01 13:50:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 1?	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x22dffd…
09-01 06:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 1?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x19145c…
09-01 05:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on September 1?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2aa337…
08-31 04:59:31	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 1?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x9e2630…
08-30 23:49:34	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0xd2d260…
08-30 16:54:37	Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Violent Typhoon"?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1eaec8…
08-30 15:46:09	Will ByteDance be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0xed9186…
08-30 13:41:07	bitcoin above 82k on august 30 2026	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xff41f4…
08-29 21:54:46	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x634c7a…
08-29 09:16:51	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 38°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb08cdd…
08-28 17:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 29?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xec3697…
08-28 14:31:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 29?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$26	0x603088…
08-27 11:41:51	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on August 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x564b5f…
08-27 04:33:42	bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x46b157…
08-26 22:25:36	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9262ae…
08-26 18:04:06	will ethereum dip to 2300 on august 26 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x153104…
08-26 16:35:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 27?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xd09b06…
08-26 03:06:43	Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 26°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x6fa7b1…
08-25 10:25:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd3cb99…
08-25 06:54:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 25?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x2e5742…
08-24 22:52:18	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on August 25?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xf3f322…
08-24 14:49:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x56b833…
08-24 09:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbfa4d7…
08-24 07:35:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 24?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x541b29…
08-23 19:12:00	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa094e5…
08-14 19:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C or higher on August 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x84d9e7…
08-14 06:54:04	Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on August 14?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xcbc1d7…
08-13 18:41:51	bitcoin above 58k on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x88ca4f…
08-13 14:22:07	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on August 13?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4b1931…
08-13 08:39:30	ethereum above 1700 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x91ca79…
08-13 06:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 13?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x58c28b…
08-12 22:37:18	bitcoin above 60k on august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd10b7a…
08-12 07:39:36	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 12?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x82880b…
08-12 03:16:45	solana above 70 on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x1dd0f3…
08-11 23:16:39	bitcoin above 60k on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xacc018…
08-11 22:00:00	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or higher on August 12?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x52308b…
08-11 14:10:16	ethereum above 1800 on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x280794…
08-10 22:28:27	ethereum above 2100 on august 11 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xdda994…
08-10 20:34:06	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 11?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0xa2d5f5…
08-10 15:23:46	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 108°F or higher on August 11?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x991147…
08-10 11:44:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 11?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x802c4d…
08-10 02:19:54	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C or below on August 10?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xc68f43…
08-09 09:47:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or below on August 9?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xc61d04…
08-09 04:27:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on August 9?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xd80b08…
08-09 01:45:15	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 10?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xac5583…
08-08 19:09:09	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 9?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5441aa…
08-08 06:19:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 8?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x34e1bb…
08-08 03:39:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x0bdeb6…
08-07 22:21:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x0d4773…
08-07 10:49:54	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on August 8?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8a3207…
08-07 08:42:15	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe3af0f…
08-06 09:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 7?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x85da6d…
08-06 02:22:20	ethereum above 1700 on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0xde839a…
08-05 23:19:45	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 6?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa480b6…