Warm-Capitulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.9%

Resolved

Trades

14,146

lifetime

Volume

$48.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-06 04:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 36% $-44

Other

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 131 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum up or down january 21 8am et	22	$198	285	40	+245	open	—	01-21 13:59
eth updown 15m 1768382100	13	$186	260	5	+255	open	—	01-14 09:29
eth updown 15m 1768122000	15	$165	250	20	+230	open	—	01-11 09:14
bitcoin up or down january 18 9pm et	13	$125	175	0	+175	open	—	01-19 03:00
eth updown 15m 1768380300	17	$122	157	0	+157	open	—	01-14 08:59
eth updown 15m 1768887000	18	$121	190	0	+190	open	—	01-20 05:44
bitcoin up or down january 19 5am et	15	$119	196	0	+196	open	—	01-19 11:00
btc updown 15m 1768806900	15	$117	169	10	+159	open	—	01-19 07:30
btc updown 15m 1768120200	13	$107	200	0	+200	open	—	01-11 08:45
btc updown 15m 1768804200	14	$105	150	10	+140	open	—	01-19 06:44
eth updown 15m 1769571000	12	$103	168	0	+168	open	—	01-28 03:45
eth updown 15m 1768202100	13	$93	135	5	+130	open	—	01-12 07:29
btc updown 15m 1768975200	12	$82	100	0	+100	open	—	01-21 06:15
btc updown 15m 1768446000	13	$81	120	0	+120	open	—	01-15 03:15
eth updown 15m 1768574700	8	$80	110	0	+110	open	—	01-16 15:00
eth updown 15m 1768118400	14	$78	100	5	+95	open	—	01-11 08:15
ethereum up or down january 2 10am et	3	$78	120	0	+120	open	—	01-02 16:00
eth updown 15m 1768373100	6	$78	90	0	+90	open	—	01-14 07:00
eth updown 15m 1768924800	12	$77	120	0	+120	open	—	01-20 16:15
eth updown 15m 1768824000	11	$75	85	25	+60	open	—	01-19 12:14
ethereum up or down february 2 9am et	8	$74	100	0	+100	open	—	02-02 14:59
btc updown 15m 1767625200	7	$74	119	0	+119	open	—	01-05 15:14
btc updown 5m 1773475500	8	$74	120	0	+120	open	—	03-14 08:10
btc updown 15m 1768491000	15	$73	105	0	+105	open	—	01-15 15:45
ethereum up or down january 27 7am et	10	$73	107	0	+107	open	—	01-27 12:59
btc updown 15m 1768451400	5	$72	90	0	+90	open	—	01-15 04:45
btc updown 15m 1768987800	11	$71	95	0	+95	open	—	01-21 09:45
sol updown 15m 1768452300	6	$70	80	20	+60	open	—	01-15 04:59
eth updown 5m 1773386400	4	$69	110	0	+110	open	—	03-13 07:25
btc updown 15m 1768727700	10	$68	110	0	+110	open	—	01-18 09:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 04:00:12	btc updown 15m 1780717500	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x957d99…
06-06 03:59:06	btc updown 15m 1780717500	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x911dd3…
06-06 03:49:19	btc updown 5m 1780717500	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x861bc4…
06-06 03:44:15	btc updown 5m 1780717200	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x47891b…
06-06 03:43:10	eth updown 5m 1780717200	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x228fda…
06-05 08:59:48	btc updown 5m 1780649700	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdbf813…
06-05 08:59:33	xrp updown 15m 1780649100	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x7dfff9…
06-05 08:44:58	btc updown 5m 1780648800	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x6a93fa…
06-05 08:28:52	btc updown 15m 1780647300	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb5d0e6…
06-05 08:27:49	btc updown 15m 1780647300	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x4ade05…
06-05 08:26:52	sol updown 15m 1780647300	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc45cf8…
06-05 08:24:31	eth updown 5m 1780647600	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x5812f2…
06-04 09:28:57	eth updown 5m 1780565100	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa2bf58…
06-04 09:28:49	sol updown 5m 1780565100	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7c7e56…
06-04 09:01:03	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 4am et	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc561d0…
06-04 08:59:45	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xfd6e90…
06-04 08:13:04	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc10e60…
06-04 06:59:10	btc updown 5m 1780556100	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x639576…
06-04 06:29:25	btc updown 5m 1780554300	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x568b05…
06-04 06:29:16	sol updown 5m 1780554300	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc560dd…
06-04 06:15:15	btc updown 5m 1780553400	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x767781…
06-04 06:15:12	eth updown 5m 1780553400	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xbfeb77…
06-04 06:15:10	sol updown 5m 1780553400	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x4a68e8…
06-04 06:14:01	sol updown 5m 1780553400	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe4d3d7…
06-04 06:13:04	eth updown 5m 1780553400	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4440da…
06-04 06:12:55	btc updown 5m 1780553400	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x962a42…
05-28 07:59:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x70387b…
05-28 07:59:25	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x6599bc…
05-28 07:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x081c39…
05-28 07:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa8ab59…
05-28 07:53:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x3b7323…
05-28 07:39:26	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xf0303b…
05-28 07:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xbe31ef…
05-28 07:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x88ae42…
05-28 07:02:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x21a7c0…
05-21 07:43:46	Solana Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x7c375e…
05-13 06:00:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc752dc…
05-13 06:00:23	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa067a8…
05-13 05:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x410a16…
05-13 05:59:34	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xd1d049…
05-13 05:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x98dd23…
05-13 05:58:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x8b5b2c…
05-13 05:58:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xcb65d0…
05-11 05:59:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe36a73…
05-11 05:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5ed9ed…
05-08 08:29:55	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xf34ae0…
05-08 08:28:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x03fd7f…
05-08 08:28:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xdf1fa9…
05-08 08:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x4c75d2…
05-08 08:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6e6079…
05-07 06:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x90fcde…
05-07 06:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x14ad6a…
05-07 06:04:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xf0d1cd…
05-07 06:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc30149…
05-07 05:45:10	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc42282…
05-07 05:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x038877…
05-07 05:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3f865f…
05-07 05:43:40	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x8151a7…
05-06 14:00:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4f3d5f…
05-06 14:00:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1bab5a…
05-06 13:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x4b22ba…
05-06 13:59:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xb550dd…
05-06 13:59:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xfa0900…
05-06 13:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xcc8b57…
05-06 13:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd9f320…
05-06 08:00:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1f5291…
05-06 07:59:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb80568…
05-06 07:58:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xf2b659…
05-06 05:00:12	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9cdaa2…
05-06 04:59:50	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x64f99e…
05-06 04:58:14	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x666bcb…
05-06 04:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe3bdb2…
05-06 04:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xdf9456…
05-05 15:58:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x789c15…
05-05 15:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xbda90f…
05-05 15:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x359a88…
05-05 14:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xfcaa72…
05-05 14:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xa68149…
05-05 14:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x3f41c0…
05-05 10:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7bb076…
05-05 10:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x300faf…
05-05 10:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8b50d9…
05-05 10:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6b0468…
05-05 10:12:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xab730d…
05-05 10:00:48	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x78c259…
05-05 10:00:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x398e9a…
05-05 09:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x7fbb1f…
05-05 09:59:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x201ef2…
05-05 09:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x52566c…
05-05 09:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x535760…
05-05 09:59:02	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xd0ea02…
05-05 09:55:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc4aa0c…
05-05 09:55:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xce233c…
05-05 09:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x81d3f5…
05-05 09:54:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x02d125…
05-05 09:44:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7126a0…
05-05 09:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x752835…
05-05 09:29:08	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xa31348…
05-05 09:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xb7a036…
05-05 09:14:18	BNB Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa41601…