Warm-Capitulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$305

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.6%

Resolved

5,822

Trades

14,207

lifetime

Volume

$48.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-24 06:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 59% +$309

Other

0% 67% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum up or down january 21 8am et	22	$198	285	40	+245	Down	+$2	01-21 13:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 09:15 UTC	13	$186	260	5	+255	Up	+$18	01-14 09:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 09:00 UTC	15	$165	250	20	+230	Up	+$26	01-11 09:14
bitcoin up or down january 18 9pm et	13	$125	175	0	+175	Down	-$10	01-19 03:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 08:45 UTC	17	$122	157	0	+157	Down	+$16	01-14 08:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 05:30 UTC	18	$121	190	0	+190	Up	+$59	01-20 05:44
bitcoin up or down january 19 5am et	15	$119	196	0	+196	Up	-$3	01-19 11:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 07:15 UTC	15	$117	169	10	+159	Down	+$7	01-19 07:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 08:30 UTC	13	$107	200	0	+200	Down	-$57	01-11 08:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 06:30 UTC	14	$105	150	10	+140	Up	+$31	01-19 06:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 03:30 UTC	12	$103	168	0	+168	Down	-$43	01-28 03:45
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 07:15 UTC	13	$93	135	5	+130	Down	+$22	01-12 07:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 06:00 UTC	12	$82	100	0	+100	Down	+$18	01-21 06:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 03:00 UTC	13	$81	120	0	+120	Down	-$81	01-15 03:15
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-16 14:45 UTC	8	$80	110	0	+110	Down	+$19	01-16 15:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 08:00 UTC	14	$78	100	5	+95	Down	+$4	01-11 08:15
ethereum up or down january 2 10am et	3	$78	120	0	+120	Up	+$22	01-02 16:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 06:45 UTC	6	$78	90	0	+90	Up	+$2	01-14 07:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-20 16:00 UTC	12	$77	120	0	+120	Down	+$3	01-20 16:15
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-19 12:00 UTC	11	$75	85	25	+60	Down	+$13	01-19 12:14
ethereum up or down february 2 9am et	8	$74	100	0	+100	Up	-$14	02-02 14:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-05 15:00 UTC	7	$74	119	0	+119	Up	-$27	01-05 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 08:05 UTC	8	$74	120	0	+120	Up	-$34	03-14 08:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 15:30 UTC	15	$73	105	0	+105	Down	+$2	01-15 15:45
ethereum up or down january 27 7am et	10	$73	107	0	+107	Up	+$4	01-27 12:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 04:30 UTC	5	$72	90	0	+90	Down	-$12	01-15 04:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 09:30 UTC	11	$71	95	0	+95	Up	-$23	01-21 09:45
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 04:45 UTC	6	$70	80	20	+60	Up	+$6	01-15 04:59
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 07:20 UTC	4	$69	110	0	+110	Down	-$59	03-13 07:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 09:15 UTC	10	$68	110	0	+110	Up	-$58	01-18 09:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-24 06:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x77e3e5…
09-24 06:14:11	Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xd6f9a8…
09-24 06:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x0f3b12…
09-24 06:04:02	Ethereum Up or Down - September 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xab49ad…
09-24 06:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc38ed6…
09-24 03:58:50	Ethereum Up or Down - September 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xcba356…
09-24 03:45:18	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x92b0cd…
09-24 03:44:28	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x10c22d…
09-24 03:44:16	Ethereum Up or Down - September 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x828bc4…
09-24 03:43:59	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xc1a4f1…
09-24 03:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x111d76…
09-24 03:42:22	Ethereum Up or Down - September 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb668c0…
09-24 03:12:14	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xe3e8de…
09-24 03:09:35	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb741e0…
09-24 03:00:07	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb12be5…
09-24 03:00:01	Ethereum Up or Down - September 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x2e3794…
09-24 02:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9ab553…
09-24 02:57:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x26962f…
09-24 02:56:31	Ethereum Up or Down - September 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x579b1a…
09-24 02:54:23	Solana Up or Down - September 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8aab9f…
09-22 06:29:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-22 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x68d42f…
09-22 06:29:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-22 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x1702c1…
09-22 06:29:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-22 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x4fa8d7…
09-22 06:04:31	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xb50b2e…
09-22 06:03:18	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xad07d1…
09-22 06:01:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-22 05:45 UTC	Down	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x239e72…
09-22 05:59:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-22 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xe13dec…
08-12 06:29:51	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7a79b1…
08-12 06:28:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 06:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x0a4548…
07-22 07:29:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-22 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x846095…
06-26 03:34:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe6c2c1…
06-26 03:29:43	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-26 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x14bbed…
06-26 03:28:47	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-26 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x9db705…
06-26 03:28:29	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-26 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x3058a7…
06-26 02:45:43	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-26 02:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf83fec…
06-26 02:44:55	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 02:40 UTC	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x4b57e5…
06-26 02:44:38	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-26 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xf51870…
06-26 02:43:38	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-26 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x68bcef…
06-26 02:43:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-26 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x861673…
06-23 07:29:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x1f1d9c…
06-23 07:05:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 07:00 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdcfe7e…
06-23 07:04:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x130688…
06-23 06:49:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xd16e7d…
06-15 14:44:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf60323…
06-15 14:43:46	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x553f63…
06-15 03:58:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x28cd10…
06-15 03:30:31	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 03:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x753194…
06-15 03:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdc5fc0…
06-15 03:29:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x2d5b09…
06-15 03:28:43	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x182a78…
06-15 03:28:30	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb655e5…
06-15 03:27:58	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-15 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x27a10a…
06-15 03:09:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 03:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x88b662…
06-15 03:09:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 03:05 UTC	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xaf1aee…
06-06 04:00:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 03:45 UTC	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x957d99…
06-06 03:59:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x911dd3…
06-06 03:49:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x861bc4…
06-06 03:44:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x47891b…
06-06 03:43:10	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-06 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x228fda…
06-05 08:59:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdbf813…
06-05 08:59:33	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x7dfff9…
06-05 08:44:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 08:40 UTC	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x6a93fa…
06-05 08:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x39d2d2…
06-05 08:29:28	XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x5df484…
06-05 08:28:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb5d0e6…
06-05 08:27:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x4ade05…
06-05 08:26:52	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc45cf8…
06-05 08:24:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 08:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x5812f2…
06-04 09:28:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa2bf58…
06-04 09:28:49	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7c7e56…
06-04 09:01:03	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 4am et	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc561d0…
06-04 08:59:45	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xfd6e90…
06-04 08:13:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 08:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc10e60…
06-04 06:59:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x639576…
06-04 06:29:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x568b05…
06-04 06:29:16	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc560dd…
06-04 06:15:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:10 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x767781…
06-04 06:15:12	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:10 UTC	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xbfeb77…
06-04 06:15:10	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:10 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x4a68e8…
06-04 06:14:01	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe4d3d7…
06-04 06:13:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4440da…
06-04 06:12:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 06:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x962a42…
05-28 07:59:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x70387b…
05-28 07:59:25	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x6599bc…
05-28 07:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x081c39…
05-28 07:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa8ab59…
05-28 07:53:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x3b7323…
05-28 07:39:26	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xf0303b…
05-28 07:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xbe31ef…
05-28 07:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x121f91…
05-28 07:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x88ae42…
05-28 07:02:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x21a7c0…
05-21 07:43:46	Solana Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x7c375e…
05-13 06:00:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc752dc…
05-13 06:00:23	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa067a8…
05-13 05:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x410a16…
05-13 05:59:34	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xd1d049…
05-13 05:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x98dd23…
05-13 05:58:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x8b5b2c…
05-13 05:58:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xcb65d0…