Plaintive-Convection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$254

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.8%

Resolved

Trades

244

lifetime

Volume

$20.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 06-08 16:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 56% $-303

Other

22% — —

Sports

14% — —

Politics

5% 100% +$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Manresa vs. Real Madrid	4	$2.6K	1,684	1,684	+0	open	—	05-29 18:21
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	5	$1.2K	2,645	24	+2,621	open	—	06-08 16:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$1.2K	162,002	0	+162,002	open	—	06-02 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	14	$1.0K	2,300	0	+2,300	open	—	05-18 16:54
Spurs vs. Thunder	2	$998	1,721	0	+1,721	open	—	05-30 17:52
eth updown 15m 1771101900	7	$849	554	545	+8	open	—	02-14 21:02
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	3	$752	2,390	2,390	+0	open	—	05-31 03:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	4	$733	438	438	+0	open	—	05-04 18:15
bitcoin up or down february 26 10am et	4	$697	443	443	+0	open	—	02-26 16:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	9	$584	1,252	0	+1,252	open	—	05-17 18:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$579	1,208	1,208	+0	No	+$49	05-04 20:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	2	$532	4,271	4,271	+0	open	—	06-01 01:53
eth updown 15m 1771104600	4	$473	1,182	0	+1,182	open	—	02-14 21:35
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	2	$463	536	536	+0	open	—	05-31 03:37
bitcoin up or down february 26 12pm et	6	$442	886	0	+886	open	—	02-26 16:40
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo	2	$401	1,314	0	+1,314	open	—	05-30 18:32
eth updown 15m 1771101000	7	$342	256	253	+3	open	—	02-14 20:46
eth updown 15m 1771141500	2	$300	643	0	+643	open	—	02-15 07:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$277	179	179	+0	open	—	05-04 18:05
eth updown 15m 1771103700	5	$260	1,055	0	+1,055	open	—	02-14 21:20
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	1	$250	500	0	+500	open	—	05-30 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	1	$250	489	0	+489	Down	$-250	05-04 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	1	$230	464	0	+464	open	—	05-04 18:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	4	$207	27,814	0	+27,814	open	—	05-26 20:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	3	$201	127	127	+0	Down	+$51	05-04 20:41
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)	1	$200	386	0	+386	open	—	05-30 17:45
eth updown 15m 1771108200	2	$200	408	0	+408	open	—	02-14 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$200	321	0	+321	open	—	05-17 18:05
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	2	$188	769	769	+0	open	—	06-01 02:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$180	529	0	+529	open	—	05-04 18:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 16:48:00	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	199	47¢	$93	0x23f277…
06-07 20:40:57	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	175	53¢	$93	0xd13596…
06-07 20:40:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x3d8910…
06-07 18:54:54	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	180	41¢	$74	0x12b54a…
06-07 17:36:07	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	2,415	46¢	$1,111	0x0a7765…
06-07 17:28:30	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xddb387…
06-07 17:08:24	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	SELL	119	2¢	$3	0x712d7e…
06-06 09:03:48	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	No	BUY	119	8¢	$10	0x92c208…
06-06 09:03:04	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	SELL	24	45¢	$11	0xa9c313…
06-04 07:09:48	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0x01ca4d…
06-04 07:09:22	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	593	2¢	$11	0x006481…
06-02 20:17:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17,692	1¢	$159	0xd66bad…
06-02 15:42:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118,571	1¢	$830	0x3fb3f3…
06-02 14:53:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11,452	1¢	$92	0x4d7069…
06-02 14:52:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14,286	1¢	$100	0xa32fd3…
06-01 08:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xb7e8f3…
06-01 08:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	67	37¢	$25	0x1da4f1…
06-01 08:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	55	45¢	$25	0x16cd8f…
06-01 07:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x816350…
06-01 07:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x52e25e…
06-01 07:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x809097…
06-01 07:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	498	5¢	$25	0x8ddfb7…
06-01 07:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0x56ac96…
06-01 07:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0x3ce803…
06-01 06:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	49	50¢	$25	0x9b1334…
06-01 06:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x70571c…
06-01 06:30:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	49	50¢	$25	0xeb26a5…
06-01 06:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x9d388d…
06-01 06:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x40dd94…
06-01 06:30:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	49	50¢	$25	0x58208e…
06-01 06:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xba4a70…
06-01 06:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x772c7c…
06-01 06:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	49	51¢	$25	0xfa1770…
06-01 06:29:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x47f0e5…
06-01 06:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xebdd86…
06-01 06:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	SELL	49	51¢	$25	0x842b9a…
06-01 06:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x2fb80b…
06-01 06:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xaad401…
06-01 05:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xf41af0…
06-01 05:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x595ad7…
06-01 05:37:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x945369…
06-01 05:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x585def…
06-01 05:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x105550…
06-01 05:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x478df1…
06-01 05:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xbfb331…
06-01 05:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xeb7efd…
06-01 05:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x713007…
06-01 05:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x2edc04…
06-01 05:34:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x578eb8…
06-01 05:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x933fac…
06-01 05:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xd05fbe…
06-01 05:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x646c40…
06-01 05:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xb921bb…
06-01 05:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x8412d9…
06-01 05:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xfd29ff…
06-01 05:32:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xc6b9bb…
06-01 05:32:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x505b68…
06-01 05:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x0d7c1c…
06-01 03:22:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xe637a6…
06-01 03:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xacf032…
06-01 03:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x1dbb9e…
06-01 03:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x5715f1…
06-01 03:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x94f645…
06-01 03:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	41	62¢	$25	0x974715…
06-01 03:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x2385e0…
06-01 03:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x09e697…
06-01 03:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x01dab5…
06-01 03:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x3a8f22…
06-01 03:14:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x1c944c…
06-01 03:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	49	47¢	$23	0x0e2e7c…
06-01 03:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x8c52bf…
06-01 03:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x901ea7…
06-01 03:14:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x434fe2…
06-01 03:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x4d44be…
06-01 03:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x7922d5…
06-01 03:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x386dba…
06-01 03:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xc7dda5…
06-01 03:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x5868d8…
06-01 03:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x61ab63…
06-01 03:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xe3fb17…
06-01 02:58:46	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	769	11¢	$88	0x7092d9…
06-01 02:57:31	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x6b999d…
06-01 01:54:14	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	593	11¢	$64	0xf42996…
06-01 01:53:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	Yes	SELL	4,271	1¢	$62	0x80e548…
05-31 06:10:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	Yes	BUY	4,271	11¢	$470	0xbe8b66…
05-31 03:37:29	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	536	30¢	$163	0xe7d439…
05-31 03:37:19	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,390	14¢	$344	0x918e02…
05-30 19:58:10	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	18¢	$8	0x3af15a…
05-30 19:53:09	Spread: Thunder (-3.5)	Thunder	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x904ff4…
05-30 19:52:03	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,345	17¢	$400	0x556b77…
05-30 19:49:57	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	536	56¢	$300	0xf20ca9…
05-30 18:32:50	Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo	Seattle Storm	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x106e5c…
05-30 17:52:44	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	838	58¢	$486	0x03903f…
05-30 17:47:58	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	883	58¢	$512	0xef3506…
05-30 17:45:30	Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)	Seattle Storm	BUY	386	52¢	$200	0xe828e4…
05-30 17:43:29	Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo	Seattle Storm	BUY	1,294	31¢	$400	0x3bbfae…
05-29 18:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xb892cc…
05-29 18:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x1b8252…
05-29 18:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xd87be7…
05-29 18:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x32869b…