Probable-Percentage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$39

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved

1,614

Trades

3,366

lifetime

Volume

$31.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$106

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 10-28 02:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 110 days

Categories

Other

58% 48% +$86

Crypto

23% 51% -$159

Sports

15% 45% +$93

Politics

2% 25% +$32

Tech

1% 9% -$13

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 137 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+72	$35	92¢	$66	+$31	06-02 09:15
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+20	$18	96¢	$19	+$1	09-09 07:51
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+13	$1	93¢	$13	+$12	10-27 13:30
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+72	$39	8¢	$6	-$32	06-02 09:15
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+13	$7	8¢	$1	-$6	10-27 13:30
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+20	$1	4¢	$1	-$1	09-11 09:45
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	+0	$0	81¢	$0	$0	09-27 11:04
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	09-19 16:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	12	$433	412	412	+0	open	—	10-18 18:29
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in September?	8	$344	276	175	+100	No	+$5	09-28 22:06
will ethereum reach 3200 september 28 october 4 2026	3	$296	201	100	+100	No	+$1	10-01 05:03
will epic games valuation hit low 12pt25b by september 30 20260829005000098	6	$292	360	360	+0	Yes	+$2	09-04 21:33
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in September?	7	$291	151	151	+0	No	+$2	09-20 06:54
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	10	$270	420	202	+218	No	-$1	07-05 04:27
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $11B by September 30?	6	$267	360	360	+0	Yes	+$105	09-12 02:37
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur	63	$249	549	0	+549	Alex de Minaur	-$15	05-18 12:18
Spread: Burkina Faso (-5.5)	3	$239	254	0	+254	Argentina	+$16	10-02 19:15
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.12% in September?	7	$222	120	120	+0	No	+$6	09-18 05:46
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	8	$210	225	225	+0	Yes	-$4	06-16 18:37
will xauusd dip to 3600 in september 2026	2	$197	201	0	+201	No	+$4	09-28 22:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$1	09-23 17:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 28-October 4?	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$0	10-02 07:03
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$195	102	102	+0	open	—	10-18 18:29
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September?	5	$195	151	50	+100	No	+$6	09-25 22:52
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?	10	$195	113	113	+0	No	+$4	09-18 06:54
Over $4M committed to the Jumper public sale?	6	$187	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	09-26 14:58
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in September?	9	$186	201	101	+100	No	+$2	09-15 07:39
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)	2	$185	100	100	+0	Levante UD	-$5	10-16 23:32
Colts vs. Commanders: O/U 48.5	3	$182	202	101	+101	Under	+$30	10-04 16:36
Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5	2	$178	101	101	+0	Over	+$22	09-27 23:30
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.56% in September?	3	$170	135	85	+50	No	$0	09-25 13:41
will open dip to 1 75 by september 28 2026	2	$168	101	81	+20	No	-$1	09-28 00:13
Spread: Burkina Faso (-4.5)	2	$166	173	0	+173	Argentina	+$7	10-02 21:01
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $187 Week of September 14 2026?	4	$159	150	15	+135	Yes	+$6	09-14 09:04
will hood reach 155 in september 2026	3	$156	151	10	+141	No	+$5	09-28 16:03
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?	3	$155	81	81	+0	open	—	09-25 10:44
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	5	$150	94	81	+13	open	—	10-27 13:30
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?	13	$150	128	108	+20	open	—	09-29 16:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 02:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x327fbb…
10-28 01:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xbb5694…
10-28 01:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf96049…
10-28 01:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x98274a…
10-28 01:31:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xda1789…
10-28 01:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x200787…
10-28 01:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x22573a…
10-28 00:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xfb82e9…
10-28 00:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xd60d1c…
10-28 00:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xf6265a…
10-28 00:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x3e7dad…
10-28 00:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xc15107…
10-28 00:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x2b38d8…
10-28 00:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xf89a32…
10-28 00:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x00e835…
10-28 00:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xe20e05…
10-27 23:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xc51518…
10-27 23:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x0dc4fd…
10-27 23:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x8c5378…
10-27 23:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xfb0778…
10-27 23:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x406502…
10-27 23:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x591194…
10-27 22:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xfd2377…
10-27 22:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x75af40…
10-27 22:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x2822ff…
10-27 22:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xc54485…
10-27 22:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xcb818d…
10-27 22:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x18c07c…
10-27 21:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x0aeb30…
10-27 21:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xb0de7f…
10-27 21:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xfd2e14…
10-27 21:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x662539…
10-27 21:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x78ce3a…
10-27 20:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x688f99…
10-27 20:31:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xd82bae…
10-27 20:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x8cc16f…
10-27 20:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x0ff67b…
10-27 20:17:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x6f129c…
10-27 20:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x725aab…
10-27 19:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7c2cf3…
10-27 19:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xc2666d…
10-27 19:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x7d0eb8…
10-27 19:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x1688ce…
10-27 19:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x4a3108…
10-27 18:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xaf3a71…
10-27 18:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc79bbf…
10-27 18:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xd326c0…
10-27 18:22:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x692c9c…
10-27 18:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xabfdcd…
10-27 13:30:32	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x5dab5e…
10-27 13:30:30	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0x986c80…
10-27 03:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0xd3ff72…
10-27 03:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x001c28…
10-27 03:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x4ca05b…
10-27 01:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x86dd08…
10-27 00:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x8c4b34…
10-26 23:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x6fc773…
10-26 22:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	70¢	$2	0x419bb1…
10-26 22:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x449f7a…
10-26 22:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xc6700e…
10-26 21:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x2014ba…
10-26 21:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x58d772…
10-26 20:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xcaae2d…
10-26 20:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0x38d27b…
10-26 20:21:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xec2c4d…
10-26 20:16:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x10c794…
10-26 19:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0x39ad66…
10-26 19:22:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x1ef76b…
10-26 19:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$3	0xe08250…
10-26 18:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0x60082b…
10-26 18:08:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xf53e48…
10-26 17:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x0b7374…
10-26 16:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x2f289f…
10-26 16:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x847aa5…
10-26 16:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0xcb3285…
10-26 16:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x324f29…
10-26 16:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x37ca46…
10-26 16:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xfcd2b7…
10-26 16:02:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x35b505…
10-26 15:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0x328156…
10-26 15:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x8fa255…
10-26 15:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0xf1a16e…
10-26 15:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x83bad4…
10-26 15:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x0ecc41…
10-26 15:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x736769…
10-26 14:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xbfda1f…
10-26 14:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x3fe2e1…
10-26 14:17:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x35f7a7…
10-26 14:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x3c4d6d…
10-26 14:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0xb320a2…
10-26 13:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x873c15…
10-26 13:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	45¢	$2	0xae8b89…
10-26 13:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0xc0b0cb…
10-26 12:32:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x046e22…
10-26 12:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0x1e5103…
10-26 12:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	64¢	$2	0xd5b400…
10-26 11:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x005cb9…
10-26 11:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x6edfb6…
10-26 11:25:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xfb2aab…
10-26 11:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x865bbe…