Afraid-Guideline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.7%

Resolved

128

Trades

182

lifetime

Volume

$207

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-08 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 65% -$5

Other

37% 75% -$5

Sports

12% 44% +$4

Politics

5% 33% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-08).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$10	6	5	+1	No	-$1	05-19 23:47
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-19 21:27
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	5	$6	4	4	+0	Yes	+$0	04-28 13:03
nhl mon phi 2026 04 14	1	$4	6	0	+6	Flyers	+$2	04-15 00:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	4	$4	8	0	+8	Down	-$1	05-13 23:16
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$4	7	7	+0	No	$0	04-29 08:29
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$4	13	13	+0	No	$0	04-29 07:20
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$4	4	4	+0	No	$0	04-28 13:31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	2	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	04-28 14:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 11:25 UTC	4	$4	5	2	+3	Down	-$1	04-23 11:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 23:50 UTC	1	$3	5	0	+5	Down	-$3	04-21 23:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 12:55 UTC	3	$3	6	0	+6	Up	+$1	04-23 12:54
will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$3	20	0	+20	No	-$3	04-09 10:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-19 10:00 UTC	3	$3	15	0	+15	Up	-$3	04-19 10:13
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$3	1	2	-1	No	$0	04-28 13:26
nba orl det 2026 04 22 spread home 9pt5	2	$3	2	2	+0	Pistons	+$1	04-23 02:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 02:40 UTC	2	$2	4	0	+4	Down	-$1	04-23 02:42
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	05-20 09:56
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-20 09:57
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-20 09:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 17:15 UTC	2	$2	4	0	+4	Down	+$0	04-22 17:10
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 22:45 UTC	2	$2	4	0	+4	Down	+$0	04-20 22:19
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$2	174	0	+174	Yes	-$1	05-08 23:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 21:15 UTC	2	$2	4	0	+4	Up	+$0	04-21 21:17
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	2	$2	5	0	+5	Yes	+$3	04-28 14:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 22:20 UTC	2	$2	4	0	+4	Up	-$1	04-20 22:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 13:15 UTC	2	$2	3	0	+3	Up	$0	04-23 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	2	$2	5	0	+5	Down	-$1	05-01 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	2	$2	6	0	+6	Up	$0	04-24 22:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 00:00 UTC	2	$2	5	0	+5	Down	+$1	04-22 00:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 18:00:09	aapl close above 305 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4c6180…
06-05 18:00:13	mu above 870 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7c7e56…
06-05 18:00:09	googl above 365 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4593ff…
06-04 18:00:15	spy closes above 755 on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa74fa3…
06-04 18:00:09	spy closes above 760 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xbfdcca…
06-03 18:15:15	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x42f3fe…
06-03 18:15:10	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x5af9c7…
06-02 18:00:15	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 2?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe15f86…
06-02 18:00:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9f497b…
06-01 18:00:14	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x03cee7…
06-01 18:00:10	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 1?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa5fdbd…
05-29 18:00:12	Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 25 above $385?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xda5480…
05-29 18:00:09	Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 25 above $445?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf16675…
05-28 18:00:11	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa88aaf…
05-27 18:00:14	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x06b312…
05-27 18:00:09	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x09a0b2…
05-26 18:00:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xef2447…
05-23 22:00:15	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8f9360…
05-22 18:00:08	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2975bc…
05-21 22:00:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd7b45e…
05-21 18:00:07	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x22df68…
05-21 14:00:08	Will Deckers Q4 HOKA revenue be above $680M?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x406b28…
05-21 11:00:33	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa23ac0…
05-21 11:00:07	Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb10247…
05-20 18:00:15	aapl close above 290 on may 20 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7228e5…
05-20 18:00:08	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xec92c6…
05-20 14:00:18	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.5B?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x81cacc…
05-20 14:00:11	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x48b37c…
05-20 11:00:08	Will Dycom Industries (DY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x7b17dd…
05-20 09:57:01	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4d0f31…
05-20 09:56:45	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1a1163…
05-20 09:55:56	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6bbcec…
05-19 23:47:59	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x390114…
05-19 23:47:56	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc56b7f…
05-19 23:47:52	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf29f0b…
05-19 23:47:50	Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6fae9d…
05-19 23:47:47	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8a3494…
05-19 23:47:17	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x571e0d…
05-19 22:00:13	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x723eb4…
05-19 21:27:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa2cbf8…
05-19 20:54:16	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x315816…
05-13 23:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa32c60…
05-13 23:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc75d36…
05-13 23:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x382c8e…
05-13 23:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x085285…
05-08 23:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8d2813…
05-08 23:23:29	Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	173	1¢	$1	0x98ac88…
05-08 23:23:27	Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x90441c…
05-05 19:11:56	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x637da3…
05-03 11:54:40	New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4c3d17…
05-03 11:42:22	LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BNK FEARX	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5a1cb4…
05-01 12:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x074651…
05-01 12:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4014c0…
05-01 11:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x454985…
04-30 22:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xedd757…
04-30 20:22:42	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe0a01e…
04-30 20:22:40	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0xf271c7…
04-30 20:22:16	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa8c32c…
04-30 16:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7ccbc4…
04-30 14:27:36	Will Sandisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xffd462…
04-30 08:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4626e4…
04-29 18:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x373416…
04-29 08:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe4aaec…
04-29 08:29:50	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x2dcefb…
04-29 07:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb81332…
04-29 07:32:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x344aee…
04-29 07:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x60e861…
04-29 07:21:04	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x194139…
04-29 07:20:50	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xbde41c…
04-29 07:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xb28796…
04-29 07:14:52	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xaee4bc…
04-28 23:43:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xce5149…
04-28 23:42:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf13f99…
04-28 23:32:50	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x70f59d…
04-28 23:32:48	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4f02b2…
04-28 23:32:42	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x70b9f7…
04-28 23:32:36	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x6c0c02…
04-28 18:06:14	Bruins vs. Sabres	Sabres	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x565ec2…
04-28 18:05:22	Bruins vs. Sabres	Sabres	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x2c8924…
04-28 14:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1910f6…
04-28 14:15:40	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x7437c3…
04-28 14:15:20	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7dbaf2…
04-28 13:31:38	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xbf04d6…
04-28 13:26:36	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xec57c1…
04-28 13:24:08	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe11b73…
04-28 13:23:26	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x4b6807…
04-28 13:03:02	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x23503b…
04-28 00:00:34	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x83c440…
04-27 23:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x024051…
04-27 23:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd70842…
04-27 22:21:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x16d9dd…
04-27 18:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x91992b…
04-27 18:04:48	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x945993…
04-27 16:54:32	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa50190…
04-27 16:54:08	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x38b463…
04-27 16:20:10	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x184bdd…
04-27 15:40:32	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x503018…
04-27 15:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xe4ed5d…
04-24 22:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xed7c42…
04-24 22:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x8f1ce0…