Afraid-Guideline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

20.0%

Resolved

Trades

164

lifetime

Volume

$189

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-08 18:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 50% $-0

Other

39% — —

Sports

7% — —

Politics

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$10	6	5	+1	open	—	05-19 23:47
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-19 21:27
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	5	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-28 13:03
nhl mon phi 2026 04 14	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	04-15 00:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	4	$4	8	0	+8	Down	$-1	05-13 23:16
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 14:15
btc updown 5m 1776943500	4	$4	5	2	+3	open	—	04-23 11:29
btc updown 5m 1776815400	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	04-21 23:52
btc updown 5m 1776948900	3	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	04-23 12:54
will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$3	20	0	+20	open	—	04-09 10:34
btc updown 15m 1776592800	3	$3	15	0	+15	open	—	04-19 10:13
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$3	4	2	+2	open	—	04-27 15:40
nba orl det 2026 04 22 spread home 9pt5	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-23 02:51
btc updown 5m 1776912000	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-23 02:42
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-20 09:56
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-20 09:57
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-20 09:55
sol updown 5m 1776725100	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-20 22:19
btc updown 5m 1776878100	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-22 17:10
btc updown 5m 1776806100	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-21 21:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-27 18:17
btc updown 5m 1776816000	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-22 00:01
btc updown 5m 1775505300	2	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	04-06 19:57
btc updown 5m 1776950100	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-23 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	05-01 12:08
btc updown 5m 1776723600	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-20 22:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	2	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	04-24 22:11
btc updown 5m 1776254400	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-15 12:04
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	2	$2	70	0	+70	open	—	04-30 20:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-15 20:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 18:00:09	aapl close above 305 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4c6180…
06-05 18:00:13	mu above 870 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7c7e56…
06-05 18:00:09	googl above 365 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4593ff…
06-04 18:00:15	spy closes above 755 on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa74fa3…
06-04 18:00:09	spy closes above 760 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xbfdcca…
06-03 18:15:15	EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x42f3fe…
06-03 18:15:10	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x5af9c7…
06-02 18:00:15	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 2?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe15f86…
06-02 18:00:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9f497b…
06-01 18:00:14	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x03cee7…
06-01 18:00:10	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 1?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa5fdbd…
05-29 18:00:12	Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 25 above $385?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xda5480…
05-29 18:00:09	Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 25 above $445?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf16675…
05-28 18:00:11	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa88aaf…
05-27 18:00:14	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27?	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x06b312…
05-27 18:00:09	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 27?	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x09a0b2…
05-26 18:00:09	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xef2447…
05-23 22:00:15	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8f9360…
05-22 18:00:08	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2975bc…
05-21 18:00:07	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x22df68…
05-21 14:00:08	Will Deckers Q4 HOKA revenue be above $680M?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x406b28…
05-21 11:00:33	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa23ac0…
05-21 11:00:07	Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb10247…
05-20 18:00:15	aapl close above 290 on may 20 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7228e5…
05-20 18:00:08	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xec92c6…
05-20 14:00:18	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.5B?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x81cacc…
05-20 14:00:11	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x48b37c…
05-20 11:00:08	Will Dycom Industries (DY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x7b17dd…
05-20 09:57:01	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4d0f31…
05-20 09:56:45	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1a1163…
05-20 09:55:56	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6bbcec…
05-19 23:47:59	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x390114…
05-19 23:47:56	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc56b7f…
05-19 23:47:52	Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf29f0b…
05-19 23:47:50	Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6fae9d…
05-19 23:47:47	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8a3494…
05-19 23:47:17	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x571e0d…
05-19 22:00:13	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x723eb4…
05-19 21:27:52	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa2cbf8…
05-19 20:54:16	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x315816…
05-13 23:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xa32c60…
05-13 23:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc75d36…
05-13 23:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x382c8e…
05-13 23:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x085285…
05-08 23:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8d2813…
05-03 11:54:40	New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4c3d17…
05-03 11:42:22	LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BNK FEARX	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5a1cb4…
05-01 12:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x074651…
05-01 12:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4014c0…
05-01 11:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x454985…
04-30 22:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xedd757…
04-30 20:22:42	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe0a01e…
04-30 20:22:40	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0xf271c7…
04-30 16:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7ccbc4…
04-30 14:27:36	Will Sandisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xffd462…
04-30 08:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4626e4…
04-29 18:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x373416…
04-29 08:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe4aaec…
04-29 07:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb81332…
04-29 07:32:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x344aee…
04-29 07:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x60e861…
04-29 07:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xb28796…
04-28 23:43:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xce5149…
04-28 23:42:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf13f99…
04-28 18:06:14	Bruins vs. Sabres	Sabres	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x565ec2…
04-28 18:05:22	Bruins vs. Sabres	Sabres	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x2c8924…
04-28 14:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1910f6…
04-28 14:15:40	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x7437c3…
04-28 13:03:02	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x23503b…
04-28 00:00:34	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x83c440…
04-27 23:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x024051…
04-27 23:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd70842…
04-27 22:21:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x16d9dd…
04-27 18:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x91992b…
04-27 18:04:48	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x945993…
04-27 16:54:32	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa50190…
04-27 16:54:08	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x38b463…
04-27 16:20:10	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x184bdd…
04-27 15:40:32	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x503018…
04-27 15:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xe4ed5d…
04-24 22:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xed7c42…
04-24 22:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x8f1ce0…
04-24 22:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc3dc35…
04-24 15:02:48	btc updown 5m 1777042800	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xdb8842…
04-24 14:44:36	btc updown 5m 1777041600	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xcd9724…
04-24 14:27:16	btc updown 5m 1777040700	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x2304e6…
04-24 14:25:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xe56919…
04-23 21:04:00	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Arc" or "Arch" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xf9bba8…
04-23 13:52:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x40d026…
04-23 13:47:16	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Arc" or "Arch" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xeb550a…
04-23 13:27:42	sol updown 15m 1776950100	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf39eb7…
04-23 13:19:00	btc updown 5m 1776950100	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xaab39b…
04-23 13:18:26	btc updown 5m 1776950100	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x70959b…
04-23 12:54:24	btc updown 5m 1776948900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x239b45…
04-23 12:50:44	btc updown 5m 1776948900	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8a48d0…
04-23 12:50:42	btc updown 5m 1776948900	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3331e7…
04-23 11:29:06	btc updown 5m 1776943500	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x787f8d…
04-23 11:27:50	btc updown 5m 1776943500	Down	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x0bdb4e…
04-23 11:26:44	btc updown 5m 1776943500	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd1190b…
04-23 11:26:02	btc updown 5m 1776943500	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x18fc67…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	76	$81.8K	1,548	06-01 04:51
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	72	$31.3K	4,234	05-13 23:19
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	71	$28.9K	3,862	05-13 23:19
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	67	$21.9K	6,180	05-13 23:19
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	67	$20.1K	5,775	05-13 23:19
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	67	$12.2K	638	05-13 23:18
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	66	$55.0K	3,010	05-13 23:18
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	66	$46.7K	8,884	05-13 23:19