Golden-Watch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

321

Trades

703

lifetime

Volume

$9.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-24 09:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

75% 77% +$1

Crypto

20% 81% +$0

Politics

4% 46% +$0

Sports

1% 44% $0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27?	3	$82	41	41	+0	No	+$0	05-27 13:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 11?	5	$80	40	40	+0	No	$0	07-10 16:37
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 3?	6	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$0	07-03 05:21
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 1?	4	$74	37	37	+0	No	$0	07-01 14:50
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	5	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	07-11 16:55
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?	4	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-14 10:54
will solana dip to 50 june 22 28 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-28 16:15
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27?	5	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	06-26 16:15
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 9?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-09 02:45
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 31?	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	05-31 16:48
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-31 10:11
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-01 04:05
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	$0	06-03 11:28
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	6	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-30 16:00
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-01 07:52
will xauusd reach 4400 by june 22 2026	3	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	06-26 21:00
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 30?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-30 16:53
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 27?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-27 13:03
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on July 4?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-03 21:26
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 7?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-06 15:09
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 5?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-04 18:58
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on July 5?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-04 20:23
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17?	2	$57	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	05-17 05:32
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	06-26 04:44
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 26?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-26 11:06
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-19 01:11
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-29 12:12
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on July 2?	4	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-01 23:24
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	4	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-28 07:01
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on July 3?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-03 14:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 09:41:59	Will Betis win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x3414b9…
10-20 18:57:27	Will Betis win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbdba5e…
10-12 05:15:57	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe26a02…
10-12 05:15:09	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb6bf4b…
10-12 05:14:18	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3a8c39…
10-12 05:13:26	Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x0ae8db…
10-12 05:12:35	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4ce7f5…
10-12 05:11:42	Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xf2b4a1…
08-31 20:01:54	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x018530…
08-30 02:38:34	Will Cameron Carr win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x269877…
08-24 01:41:27	Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6c01ec…
08-14 21:31:03	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xee2050…
08-11 07:18:09	Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2e802e…
08-09 00:31:34	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0c63a1…
07-31 04:07:09	Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x96fa68…
07-25 08:00:55	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xabea3b…
07-15 23:28:41	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 15?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xff699c…
07-15 18:08:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7c9ee5…
07-15 17:53:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 16?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x545bfb…
07-15 16:11:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 16?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x697add…
07-15 07:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on July 15?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xf18728…
07-14 17:25:32	bitcoin above 70k on july 15 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xcefec5…
07-14 14:28:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on July 14?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9621f5…
07-14 14:28:52	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on July 14?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xe0f837…
07-14 13:50:58	wti closes above 72 on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbc1410…
07-14 11:59:29	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 15?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x375622…
07-14 11:07:59	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 14?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x1d17d9…
07-14 11:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 14?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfdff6a…
07-14 11:07:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 14?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x00d265…
07-14 11:07:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 14?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1be5dc…
07-14 11:07:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 14?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x121861…
07-14 10:57:23	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 14?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x160d37…
07-14 10:54:35	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xdb61cb…
07-14 09:59:11	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on July 14?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x40dbe2…
07-14 07:52:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on July 15?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x0ec399…
07-14 06:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 14?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x842a08…
07-14 04:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 14?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xa165b1…
07-14 00:05:20	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd97b79…
07-13 18:44:58	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 14?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x58deef…
07-13 16:40:44	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x693977…
07-13 15:07:52	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 13?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x22d0ec…
07-13 14:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 14?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x554c63…
07-13 13:16:22	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd50ff8…
07-13 13:14:46	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on July 13?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x868cd3…
07-13 13:14:44	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 13?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x998082…
07-13 13:00:53	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x99c038…
07-13 11:16:32	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf42f43…
07-13 07:11:43	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 13?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc73b08…
07-13 05:03:56	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on July 13?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x963476…
07-13 04:17:19	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 13?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x914545…
07-13 03:16:17	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xf3e99d…
07-13 02:18:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xf2f42d…
07-13 02:12:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x218410…
07-13 02:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x517170…
07-13 02:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xfb1f56…
07-13 02:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 13?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$22	0x11c180…
07-13 02:01:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xd3ad24…
07-13 02:00:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6ac2e0…
07-13 01:36:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7907f1…
07-13 00:24:35	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 13?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x65555e…
07-12 20:42:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on July 13?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x3412c0…
07-12 19:33:50	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on July 13?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x3d798c…
07-12 18:57:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 13?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0x7cd6ac…
07-12 18:06:50	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x21c2bd…
07-12 15:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on July 13?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7a85f6…
07-12 13:36:52	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on July 13?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xfd9810…
07-12 12:23:01	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 12?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x3c0b31…
07-12 11:35:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on July 13?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x30c165…
07-12 10:52:49	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 13?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x9de50b…
07-12 09:34:37	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on July 13?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x08b0f9…
07-12 06:42:40	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 12?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf9dc02…
07-12 05:41:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 13?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xa9a386…
07-12 05:37:53	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 12?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x871315…
07-12 05:34:53	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 12?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x97e949…
07-12 03:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 13?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfa3c33…
07-12 00:15:17	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 12?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x0bc1fc…
07-12 00:06:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 12?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6b9803…
07-11 23:22:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 12?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x3d2310…
07-11 22:44:07	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on July 12?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd3dfbf…
07-11 22:33:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 12?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa02cf6…
07-11 22:22:35	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on July 12?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x05bebf…
07-11 22:12:28	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on July 12?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x4a325f…
07-11 19:06:05	Will BN win the 2026 Johor general elections?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x24c38a…
07-11 16:55:10	Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xd57ec0…
07-11 15:23:23	Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x297ea2…
07-11 14:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 11?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xc4b378…
07-11 09:47:05	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 11?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xbf0d4b…
07-11 05:55:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 12?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7941aa…
07-11 05:09:35	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 11?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x498fa5…
07-11 04:46:17	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on July 11?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xa3a89e…
07-11 02:31:55	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xb7c9e9…
07-11 02:31:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 11?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xfaae08…
07-11 02:31:44	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xaa821d…
07-11 02:31:44	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 11?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3dc91d…
07-11 00:52:40	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on July 11?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x0e11ad…
07-10 23:24:17	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xde6e1d…
07-10 21:19:34	Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x667b57…
07-10 21:19:11	Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa299b7…
07-10 20:35:04	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 11?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x197778…
07-10 20:17:32	Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd0cf85…