Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.5%

Resolved

139

Trades

407

lifetime

Volume

$1.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-07-22

last 11-01 12:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

64% 34% +$78

Politics

24% 36% +$15

Tech

9% 35% -$35

Crypto

2% 32% -$22

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	23	$137	359	359	+0	No	+$21	08-18 20:42
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?	2	$75	71	71	+0	No	+$55	08-09 18:08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	8	$69	147	54	+93	No	+$35	08-07 14:46
will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	11	$68	148	148	+0	No	+$35	09-03 20:46
will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	4	$50	48	48	+0	Yes	+$40	08-01 19:21
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	11	$32	63	63	+0	Yes	-$4	10-05 14:11
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	3	$29	19	19	+0	No	+$8	08-31 14:00
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?	3	$28	17	17	+0	No	+$6	08-14 17:04
will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	3	$28	531	531	+0	Yes	-$12	08-05 21:17
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	6	$28	70	50	+20	Yes	+$6	08-19 15:37
will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	5	$27	17	17	+0	Yes	+$5	08-22 05:20
will grand theft auto vi launch trailer get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1	4	$26	36	36	+0	Yes	+$10	10-20 14:19
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	5	$25	24	24	+0	No	+$13	10-28 00:12
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	7	$25	49	5	+44	No	+$29	10-10 17:59
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	4	$24	33	33	+0	Yes	-$4	08-12 20:17
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	3	$23	27	27	+0	open	—	08-03 19:35
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	2	$23	16	16	+0	Yes	+$7	08-11 18:44
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	2	$23	14	14	+0	No	+$5	08-01 13:32
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	3	$21	60	60	+0	Yes	-$7	09-15 13:17
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	4	$21	14	14	+0	No	+$4	09-05 22:18
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	7	$21	37	37	+0	No	+$6	08-26 08:27
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	3	$20	20	20	+0	No	-$2	09-16 07:09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	4	$19	28	1	+28	No	+$10	10-22 13:58
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	2	$17	20	20	+0	No	-$5	09-19 18:56
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	7	$16	14	14	+0	open	—	09-22 16:41
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	2	$15	12	12	+0	No	+$8	10-16 19:59
iran successfully targets shipping on august 10 2026 20260729163314530	2	$15	10	10	+0	No	+$4	08-11 10:01
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	4	$15	15	15	+0	Yes	-$1	10-31 16:21
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	2	$15	10	10	+0	No	+$5	08-08 05:05
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	2	$14	62	62	+0	open	—	07-31 19:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 12:03:09	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x59e599…
11-01 11:48:28	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x488383…
11-01 11:42:03	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0xcc3439…
11-01 11:39:42	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0x47d438…
10-31 16:21:55	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8ea44d…
10-30 22:34:46	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0xc6eb7d…
10-30 18:55:42	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x18b8d9…
10-28 12:50:10	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	37¢	$5	0xe2d1f6…
10-28 09:45:29	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x329fab…
10-28 09:44:46	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x571ba8…
10-28 00:12:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xbd90f0…
10-28 00:11:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x2409e4…
10-27 13:43:03	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x3f13bd…
10-27 13:42:36	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0xfc1e57…
10-27 13:35:02	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x18b5d2…
10-26 15:15:11	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x8f6583…
10-26 10:44:12	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xfaa5f3…
10-26 10:15:33	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0xd68867…
10-26 10:14:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xc9f8c8…
10-24 13:32:06	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x79fe50…
10-24 09:12:56	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x1f473d…
10-23 17:59:51	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xf398cf…
10-22 13:58:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x491af4…
10-22 13:58:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6d4c37…
10-22 13:50:36	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x917948…
10-22 12:31:30	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x9b177b…
10-21 12:49:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xed09ea…
10-20 17:21:38	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x2a5afa…
10-20 14:19:41	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0xa36b97…
10-19 17:09:27	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x81b763…
10-19 17:06:45	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x3038b9…
10-19 10:16:42	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x70fad2…
10-18 08:55:36	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x888e07…
10-18 08:55:02	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x1c0be9…
10-18 02:38:36	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	30	52¢	$16	0xef481c…
10-17 14:08:33	will grand theft auto vi launch trailer get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x5c29dd…
10-17 10:12:30	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0x8df630…
10-16 20:17:11	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x808f69…
10-16 19:59:32	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x320efe…
10-16 15:45:13	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Yes	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0xe2352c…
10-12 17:13:44	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x7af112…
10-10 17:59:24	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xcd387e…
10-08 16:25:54	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xabca88…
10-08 13:36:48	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xc0ff1e…
10-06 11:09:18	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0xde5d8f…
10-06 11:01:40	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	24¢	$3	0x2688b2…
10-06 10:06:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	12	29¢	$3	0x0e76ee…
10-05 14:11:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	22¢	$14	0xbe7e7f…
09-27 09:38:05	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x413cd4…
09-27 09:36:59	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x928141…
09-27 09:35:11	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	16¢	$3	0x12cf84…
09-27 08:43:17	metas watermelon released by october 31 2026	No	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0xba538a…
09-24 07:49:41	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x2d61ea…
09-23 19:27:38	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa62ec5…
09-23 12:15:32	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x33d101…
09-23 09:03:55	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x691fe3…
09-23 09:03:10	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x15fd34…
09-23 08:59:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x5a8533…
09-23 08:59:02	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$0	0x76e32f…
09-23 08:58:04	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc5fe37…
09-22 17:51:42	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xb5ee8d…
09-22 17:50:58	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	26	5¢	$1	0x725edf…
09-22 17:50:46	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xbc6f3c…
09-22 16:41:28	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	7	81¢	$5	0xa857df…
09-22 11:39:22	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x05f534…
09-22 11:38:10	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x90a426…
09-22 11:00:09	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0x81e8b2…
09-22 10:59:01	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0x1a41a8…
09-22 10:58:36	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x3f28d7…
09-22 10:56:21	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x1b1693…
09-21 18:51:06	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x4027b1…
09-21 18:49:55	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x5a3edf…
09-21 18:46:45	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x71892b…
09-21 13:15:42	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb4613f…
09-21 13:06:12	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x408c2e…
09-21 13:04:12	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xab4397…
09-20 11:30:06	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	No	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xb01482…
09-20 11:27:58	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xea3ede…
09-20 11:24:27	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x5b1e42…
09-20 11:23:16	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x275be6…
09-20 11:22:06	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x0784d4…
09-20 11:20:06	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x9cc41f…
09-20 08:48:49	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xdff3f1…
09-20 08:43:03	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0xbaf1da…
09-20 08:25:27	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x2199a5…
09-19 18:58:06	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	No	BUY	19	29¢	$5	0x99d52b…
09-19 18:56:33	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x7a34ae…
09-17 10:04:52	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xb77722…
09-17 10:02:54	Will Egypt join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xfd2308…
09-17 10:02:16	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x5b2157…
09-16 20:55:31	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xf710a0…
09-16 20:35:09	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x19c7c7…
09-16 08:17:12	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x806e24…
09-16 08:16:37	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0xa89e19…
09-16 07:13:37	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	BUY	15	30¢	$4	0xb49f6c…
09-16 07:09:00	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x72737b…
09-16 07:04:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x5afa1c…
09-16 07:03:43	Will Avengers: Secret Wars be delayed?	No	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xfaea3f…
09-16 07:02:39	Will Trump attend UFC 331?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x6efa0a…
09-15 13:22:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd915ef…