Lumpy-Victory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.6%

Resolved

445

Trades

842

lifetime

Volume

$11.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 10-19 19:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 118 days

Categories

Other

75% 77% +$2

Crypto

18% 83% +$1

Politics

5% 72% +$0

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 70k on july 21 2026	4	$114	57	57	+0	No	+$0	07-21 01:46
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on July 27?	4	$86	43	43	+0	No	+$0	07-27 10:35
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?	3	$79	39	39	+0	No	+$0	07-20 00:52
will gerb sds gerbsds win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	4	$72	36	36	+0	No	$0	04-19 15:01
iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	07-31 00:36
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 21?	3	$67	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-20 01:17
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 43°C on July 21?	5	$67	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-21 03:08
will bitcoin dip to 60k july 20 26 2026	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-26 19:54
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 20?	5	$66	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-19 13:11
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on July 31?	2	$65	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-31 03:22
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 22?	2	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-22 12:48
bitcoin above 62k on july 22 2026	3	$62	31	31	+0	Yes	$0	07-21 19:57
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	04-16 23:57
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C or higher on July 27?	2	$61	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-27 01:28
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on July 21?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-21 11:07
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 93°F or below on July 23?	4	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-24 01:09
bitcoin above 60k on july 25 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	$0	07-24 16:48
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on July 24?	3	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-23 21:19
will googl dip to 290 by july 27 2026	4	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-30 20:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 29?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-29 01:36
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on July 30?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-30 01:25
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 11?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-10 16:20
bitcoin above 58k on july 25 2026	2	$53	26	26	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 16:44
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 26?	3	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-26 03:08
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or below on July 24?	3	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	07-23 10:29
Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the May meeting?	6	$51	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-27 10:25
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 23?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	$0	07-23 10:11
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or below on July 25?	3	$49	25	25	+0	No	$0	07-25 09:25
Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$48	24	24	+0	No	$0	10-12 01:03
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$48	24	24	+0	No	$0	07-30 14:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 19:03:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd4f079…
10-18 14:03:11	Will the price of Solana be above $110 on October 18?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc96171…
10-16 11:31:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 16?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe6e154…
10-13 12:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 13?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x033534…
10-13 08:08:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0xa22dee…
10-12 12:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xcc88dd…
10-12 12:26:15	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on October 13?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6f3f60…
10-12 08:04:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on October 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5141db…
10-12 07:26:01	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x78179b…
10-12 01:03:00	Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x025a93…
10-12 00:22:59	Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x812590…
10-11 21:30:25	Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x24fbea…
10-11 08:36:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 10?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x2abdf3…
10-10 05:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on October 10?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x982c7d…
10-10 03:28:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 10?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xee253d…
10-10 02:54:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 10?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x2ce279…
10-10 01:11:44	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x142bbb…
10-02 00:41:02	Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 2?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x27b20d…
10-01 22:37:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xebaefd…
10-01 04:23:36	will patient zero hit 40m first week streams	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf93a6b…
09-28 04:45:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on September 28?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x041977…
09-27 22:37:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 28?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x0df779…
09-23 19:08:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 24?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x760b13…
09-23 02:04:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 23?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc765c5…
09-23 01:42:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 23?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa24d8a…
09-22 23:21:37	Will the price of Solana be above $105 on September 23?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc5e127…
09-22 20:58:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x96141d…
09-22 15:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x49daeb…
09-21 23:21:09	Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 58 million views on day 3?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x35336d…
09-19 03:45:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 19?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x15e656…
09-18 00:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on September 18?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0xb9985b…
09-17 15:56:04	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe84265…
09-13 04:41:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or higher on September 13?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xa6dc8e…
09-11 03:01:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1d065d…
09-10 19:30:51	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on September 11?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5fce5c…
09-07 17:33:37	Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on September 8?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0x072ee6…
09-06 13:31:09	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x3551f0…
09-06 04:47:39	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1a85b9…
09-05 22:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on September 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb80ba8…
09-05 06:35:24	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on September 5?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7ac2e0…
09-05 05:14:27	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 5?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x0cfe0d…
09-05 04:41:58	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on September 5?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x70663d…
09-04 18:28:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb956b9…
09-04 05:55:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 4?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x84a244…
09-03 14:41:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd50849…
09-03 12:56:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 3?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x0ae58b…
09-02 23:41:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on September 3?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x1e9c83…
09-02 14:23:00	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 3?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa39fc1…
09-02 13:13:10	Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb51ad6…
09-02 07:57:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on September 2?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x483fe9…
09-01 12:26:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x1b033f…
09-01 02:49:10	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0ebaed…
08-31 05:55:10	Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe6bb0d…
08-30 22:42:31	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x599e6d…
08-30 17:35:27	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xaddccc…
08-30 11:26:25	bitcoin above 76k on august 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0xd8b3f7…
08-30 00:10:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x377cd1…
08-29 19:09:07	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on August 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x683955…
08-28 20:14:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of August 24 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x88f28b…
08-28 13:11:52	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1348d7…
08-28 04:10:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x835834…
08-27 09:58:27	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on August 28?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xed25c3…
08-27 05:48:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1c75c6…
08-27 03:51:10	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0x1005ab…
08-26 22:50:07	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x0d2d46…
08-26 19:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xf419db…
08-26 17:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on August 27?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xaf293f…
08-25 15:16:58	bitcoin above 76k on august 25 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x7d1e9c…
08-25 12:19:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xa48e36…
08-25 06:46:10	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 25?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3edca8…
08-24 21:07:07	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x862fe3…
08-24 20:02:40	will bitcoin dip to 72k on august 24 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1f55fe…
08-24 18:48:00	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x2d3904…
08-24 00:23:07	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 24?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x8ca254…
08-23 18:15:06	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 24?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x63e146…
08-14 15:18:12	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x10c8b9…
08-14 06:40:01	ethereum above 1700 on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x01ea3c…
08-13 17:52:36	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on August 14?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x64b22c…
08-13 15:23:28	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x52ba66…
08-13 08:25:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 13?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x428030…
08-13 05:15:18	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on August 13?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xa27aaf…
08-12 22:26:36	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f8963…
08-12 07:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 13?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x4e8e2b…
08-12 03:55:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on August 12?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x39db08…
08-12 01:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 12?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x82e43a…
08-11 21:27:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xa7d341…
08-11 12:38:37	Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on August 11?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x3b00f0…
08-10 21:47:15	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on August 11?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x648d3b…
08-10 20:07:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 11?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x414b52…
08-10 13:57:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x806c46…
08-10 12:43:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 11?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x736695…
08-10 02:23:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 10?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xece044…
08-10 02:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on August 10?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x52487f…
08-09 05:35:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xaf76f7…
08-09 03:26:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 9?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x63c2ea…
08-09 01:17:16	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x262c87…
08-08 06:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 8?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9a85f1…
08-08 03:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 8?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x45eb6a…
08-07 22:35:15	will bitcoin dip to 63k on august 7	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2d071b…
08-07 15:50:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 8?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xf74cd9…