Noted-Quinoa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

Trades

233

lifetime

Volume

$9.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-19

last 06-22 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

69% 100% +$1

Politics

31% 25% $-1

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes		+22	$1	3¢	$1	$-1	06-22 09:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	4	$457	243	243	+0	open	—	05-12 15:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$449	376	376	+0	open	—	05-10 21:29
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	7	$425	222	222	+0	open	—	04-02 05:56
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	6	$423	219	219	+0	open	—	04-05 17:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	5	$417	213	213	+0	open	—	05-13 03:26
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 180 199	2	$261	136	136	+0	open	—	03-31 00:29
will viktor hovland win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$257	131	131	+0	open	—	04-04 19:38
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	2	$238	120	120	+0	open	—	03-31 23:09
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$237	120	120	+0	open	—	04-09 22:29
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	2	$237	120	120	+0	No	+$0	04-26 03:29
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	3	$236	120	120	+0	open	—	03-31 11:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	2	$236	120	120	+0	open	—	04-26 11:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$236	126	126	+0	open	—	04-25 04:22
will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$235	119	119	+0	open	—	04-09 16:01
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	2	$235	120	120	+0	open	—	04-21 00:12
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$234	118	118	+0	open	—	05-07 02:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$233	124	124	+0	open	—	04-22 05:52
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$233	124	124	+0	open	—	04-21 11:28
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$223	113	113	+0	open	—	04-15 07:20
will min woo lee win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$216	110	110	+0	open	—	04-06 13:19
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	3	$213	108	108	+0	open	—	04-22 22:11
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	4	$213	117	117	+0	open	—	04-24 11:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	4	$213	168	165	+3	No	+$1	05-10 08:00
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	2	$210	237	237	+0	open	—	03-20 05:51
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	6	$208	362	362	+0	open	—	04-12 15:43
military action against iran ends on march 29 2026	2	$193	99	99	+0	open	—	03-27 08:10
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 400 419	3	$190	108	108	+0	open	—	03-20 13:17
will sepp straka win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$189	96	96	+0	open	—	04-03 23:02
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?	2	$188	96	96	+0	open	—	04-21 20:29
will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$182	147	147	+0	open	—	04-09 08:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:27:23	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0x844f22…
05-19 05:23:56	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	98	95¢	$93	0x94dc70…
05-18 22:25:19	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0xb467bf…
05-13 14:48:32	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x3120a6…
05-13 14:47:52	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xa361fb…
05-13 14:47:52	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$4	0x812d2d…
05-13 06:37:55	Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xd3bc07…
05-13 03:26:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	117	99¢	$115	0xf99260…
05-13 03:25:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	117	99¢	$115	0x4dddc1…
05-12 15:08:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	121	95¢	$115	0x1e34f0…
05-12 12:13:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	121	94¢	$114	0xe235cc…
05-12 06:36:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	67	97¢	$65	0xf30f2e…
05-12 06:36:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0xda8898…
05-12 01:30:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	96	97¢	$93	0xf397fd…
05-11 07:36:17	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	122	94¢	$114	0xf9c657…
05-11 05:59:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	122	94¢	$114	0xbf36d7…
05-10 21:29:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0xe7f3c3…
05-10 19:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0xf5c6cb…
05-10 19:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0x8707f8…
05-10 08:00:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	107	96¢	$103	0x418212…
05-10 05:17:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0x438062…
05-09 10:26:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0x58d967…
05-09 08:05:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	3¢	$2	0x908785…
05-09 04:57:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	149	2¢	$3	0x599399…
05-09 01:31:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	149	3¢	$4	0x7d4161…
05-08 20:52:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	189	1¢	$2	0x2d76ff…
05-08 18:27:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x3bc64f…
05-08 18:27:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$2	0x34bbed…
05-08 07:33:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	122	96¢	$117	0xedcdac…
05-08 06:14:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	122	97¢	$118	0x45678d…
05-07 02:21:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0xa7995e…
05-07 00:30:57	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$116	0x16f94d…
05-06 06:21:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	3¢	$5	0x6e0b78…
05-06 05:03:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	3¢	$5	0xaacbfc…
05-05 15:28:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	4¢	$3	0x6b495e…
05-05 15:28:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	4¢	$2	0x4d00ae…
05-05 15:28:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	4¢	$3	0x4b64ed…
05-05 15:28:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0x3ac75a…
05-05 13:57:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	263	4¢	$9	0x71fb0a…
05-03 17:59:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	149	5¢	$8	0x0219fd…
05-03 16:43:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	6¢	$9	0x7aaed0…
04-30 20:40:56	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x521c2f…
04-30 20:40:56	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	3¢	$3	0x27d8e6…
04-30 20:40:56	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	101	3¢	$3	0x0b3d74…
04-30 20:40:56	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	3¢	$3	0x00e72c…
04-30 16:52:26	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	322	1¢	$4	0x413568…
04-30 11:45:36	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0xae7ffb…
04-30 11:45:36	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	157	1¢	$1	0x1c446a…
04-30 11:45:36	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	53	1¢	$0	0x1bb1f2…
04-30 09:54:12	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	281	3¢	$7	0x3115f5…
04-27 13:19:22	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	97	4¢	$3	0xd50e06…
04-27 13:19:22	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	44	4¢	$2	0x886df0…
04-27 13:19:22	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	74	4¢	$3	0x389c5a…
04-27 11:58:00	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	215	4¢	$8	0x81ccff…
04-26 21:12:26	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$2	0x71a732…
04-26 19:21:36	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xbad0ba…
04-26 19:21:36	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	53	1¢	$1	0x5d02f5…
04-26 11:53:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$118	0xa7c1b4…
04-26 09:21:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$118	0x70d6fd…
04-26 03:29:10	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$118	0xc0b2df…
04-26 01:16:24	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$118	0x3cddfd…
04-25 15:28:34	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	238	1¢	$3	0x8441df…
04-25 13:11:46	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x652324…
04-25 13:11:44	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0xe16f8c…
04-25 13:11:44	Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	1¢	$1	0x052049…
04-25 04:22:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	126	94¢	$118	0x892d94…
04-25 02:06:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	126	94¢	$118	0x7c0182…
04-24 17:47:02	Will France strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x9012a2…
04-24 14:09:34	Will France strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x313cd6…
04-24 11:47:50	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	31	91¢	$28	0xf8e2ee…
04-24 11:47:50	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	86	91¢	$79	0xe815ae…
04-24 07:18:22	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x2adf29…
04-24 07:18:22	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	104	91¢	$94	0x275b11…
04-24 02:45:12	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	142	2¢	$2	0x92789a…
04-24 00:24:24	Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	142	2¢	$2	0x0bf0c8…
04-22 22:11:44	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0xe24106…
04-22 22:11:44	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x9a3917…
04-22 17:14:18	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	108	99¢	$106	0x753143…
04-22 05:52:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	69	94¢	$65	0xc7381d…
04-22 05:52:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	55	94¢	$52	0xc5412e…
04-22 03:33:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	124	94¢	$117	0xc994d7…
04-21 20:29:40	Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	96	98¢	$94	0xceef94…
04-21 18:36:54	Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	96	98¢	$94	0xf40d7f…
04-21 11:28:34	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	124	94¢	$116	0x067001…
04-21 09:55:10	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	124	95¢	$117	0xb1734a…
04-21 02:01:12	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	7¢	$6	0x7ed4fc…
04-21 00:54:22	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	7¢	$6	0xd7957e…
04-21 00:12:16	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$117	0xe2d368…
04-20 21:53:30	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0x0302d9…
04-20 16:26:28	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	7¢	$3	0x145774…
04-20 12:17:46	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	7¢	$3	0x021164…
04-19 00:10:06	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	184	6¢	$12	0xe5871c…
04-19 00:10:06	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	91	6¢	$6	0x51044a…
04-19 00:10:06	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	78	6¢	$5	0x299f53…
04-18 20:40:44	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	353	8¢	$27	0x8f44d9…
04-16 19:54:12	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	No	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0x613d82…
04-16 17:27:26	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	No	BUY	72	98¢	$71	0xb838f0…
04-16 03:41:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	227	0¢	$1	0x4d971a…
04-16 02:07:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0xa43573…
04-16 02:07:00	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x8a679d…