Dearest-Knifeedge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,237

lifetime

Volume

$2.70K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 05-13 20:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

40% 100% +$0

Politics

39% 0% $-5

Crypto

15% 83% +$47

Tech

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 93 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	16	$115	157	79	+78	open	—	01-30 17:05
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	73	$104	80	79	+0	open	—	03-08 21:14
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	10	$70	498	498	+0	open	—	03-01 23:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	33	$67	48	47	+1	open	—	02-28 07:21
will france strike iran by march 31	38	$63	34	34	+0	open	—	03-15 10:45
us strike on somalia by february 7	16	$54	28	28	+0	open	—	02-03 19:02
us strike on somalia by january 31 563	6	$53	32	32	+0	open	—	01-30 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	13	$51	154	0	+154	Down	+$2	05-13 19:13
nancy guthrie kidnapper arrested by february 28	32	$50	38	38	+0	open	—	02-26 17:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	12	$49	137	0	+137	Up	+$5	05-13 17:26
will the us invade iran by march 31	26	$46	26	26	+0	open	—	03-16 07:48
Will the US strike Somalia next?	17	$45	25	25	+0	open	—	02-10 14:31
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	22	$45	26	26	+0	open	—	03-23 15:12
will there be between 10 and 13 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	29	$44	26	26	+0	open	—	02-28 22:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	8	$43	120	0	+120	Up	+$6	05-13 17:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	17	$43	24	24	+0	open	—	03-30 08:16
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	9	$42	23	23	+0	open	—	02-02 03:30
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	14	$42	34	24	+10	open	—	02-02 12:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	9	$40	74	0	+74	Down	+$9	05-13 18:59
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	32	$40	37	37	+0	open	—	02-17 13:50
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	11	$39	22	22	+0	open	—	02-11 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	11	$38	96	0	+96	Down	+$4	05-13 20:58
will anthropic run an ad during super bowl lx	11	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	02-04 17:19
will there be 5 or fewer us strikes on somalia in march 2026	21	$37	75	22	+53	open	—	03-30 07:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	11	$36	102	0	+102	Down	+$6	05-13 19:29
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	27	$36	37	12	+25	open	—	02-09 21:17
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	11	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	03-22 00:11
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	10	$34	18	18	+0	open	—	02-12 05:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	7	$34	87	0	+87	Down	+$7	05-13 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	7	$33	60	0	+60	Up	+$4	05-13 16:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 20:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0x04912d…
05-13 20:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xcdf40a…
05-13 20:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0xb93f6e…
05-13 20:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xae67c5…
05-13 20:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xdaa004…
05-13 20:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x7ea04b…
05-13 20:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xf9e0de…
05-13 20:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xe38bf6…
05-13 20:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x522626…
05-13 20:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x73aaa8…
05-13 20:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x732fb3…
05-13 20:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x63bd13…
05-13 20:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x659e71…
05-13 20:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	64¢	$2	0x91e732…
05-13 20:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0x5d9b2f…
05-13 19:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xd97ad9…
05-13 19:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x79a6c9…
05-13 19:29:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x7c8b6e…
05-13 19:26:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x8fc374…
05-13 19:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0xb9fb77…
05-13 19:25:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xaf7754…
05-13 19:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xc30ee4…
05-13 19:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	24	7¢	$2	0x29940a…
05-13 19:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xc859f9…
05-13 19:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xc1894c…
05-13 19:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x83ea5b…
05-13 19:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	33¢	$2	0xf4d065…
05-13 19:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x7374db…
05-13 19:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x7008d0…
05-13 19:12:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x80c0d7…
05-13 19:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x56b7bd…
05-13 19:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x334ec3…
05-13 19:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xb92d70…
05-13 19:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x3ad2ba…
05-13 19:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x071890…
05-13 19:06:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xf65632…
05-13 19:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x74d927…
05-13 19:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	33	23¢	$7	0x74605f…
05-13 19:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xa3dd9c…
05-13 19:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xc4f3c7…
05-13 19:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x9f8349…
05-13 18:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xdb08af…
05-13 18:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x428781…
05-13 18:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x44d559…
05-13 18:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x4a8742…
05-13 18:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x41686c…
05-13 18:49:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x898c74…
05-13 18:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xf9f9f1…
05-13 18:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x94a683…
05-13 18:46:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x7d198f…
05-13 18:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0x9d951b…
05-13 18:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xb368c2…
05-13 18:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x88c24e…
05-13 18:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x19abb4…
05-13 18:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x254133…
05-13 18:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x35d949…
05-13 18:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x8782bc…
05-13 18:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x70a3bc…
05-13 18:04:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xbe8d40…
05-13 18:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xce9fcd…
05-13 17:42:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0x5a7885…
05-13 17:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0x1f4e11…
05-13 17:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xae2b87…
05-13 17:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x3af353…
05-13 17:34:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x801ced…
05-13 17:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xfe1ef8…
05-13 17:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x62c193…
05-13 17:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x09f141…
05-13 17:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0xb57960…
05-13 17:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xe7f1fb…
05-13 17:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0x8bd57a…
05-13 17:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x343b30…
05-13 17:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xd667a6…
05-13 17:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x148634…
05-13 17:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0xc34c1d…
05-13 17:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x66ee62…
05-13 17:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x169af0…
05-13 17:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xff0003…
05-13 17:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x025aa3…
05-13 17:19:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x1ac4fb…
05-13 17:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0x026f54…
05-13 17:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xcf6bdb…
05-13 16:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0x3f009d…
05-13 16:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x64d809…
05-13 16:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xcc600a…
05-13 16:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x61050c…
05-13 16:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xfb6d48…
05-13 16:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x63fc46…
05-13 16:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xfabdbe…
05-13 16:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xf982fa…
05-13 16:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	21¢	$2	0xeed575…
05-13 16:38:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xa2f3a8…
05-13 16:07:03	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0xfc7106…
04-23 17:23:20	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0x040734…
04-23 17:23:16	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x171825…
04-23 17:23:00	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x62a2ae…
04-23 17:22:46	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x1bd670…
04-23 17:22:24	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	18	63¢	$11	0x554648…
04-01 16:58:19	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfdec5e…
04-01 16:58:17	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xd79c29…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Brown-Tragedy 0xb51b…b4d9	160	$903.1K	3,070	05-25 12:37
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	154	$305.0K	31,611	03-29 13:24
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	146	$534.3K	45,603	05-01 05:50
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	146	$428.1K	52,372	04-18 09:15
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	138	$26.8M	40,909	06-01 01:51
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	138	$1.42M	25,832	05-31 18:19
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	137	$215.3K	1,790	05-28 22:13
Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b2…4ceb	130	$33.0K	2,051	05-21 14:00