False-Icicle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.7%

Resolved

408

Trades

1,763

lifetime

Volume

$303.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$172

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 10-28 04:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 137 days

Categories

Other

69% 39% -$20,781

Sports

19% 42% -$4,936

Crypto

7% 39% +$454

Politics

4% 14% -$2,391

Tech

1% 0% -$657

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 216 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	84	$16.4K	123,061	123,061	+0	No	-$1,965	05-26 17:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	12	$13.3K	26,279	26,279	+0	No	-$2,651	04-01 08:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	30	$9.0K	31,053	31,053	+0	No	-$2,174	06-18 14:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	21	$8.4K	112,503	112,503	+0	No	-$5,643	05-09 10:40
nba okc lal 2026 04 07 total 221pt5	4	$7.0K	11,200	11,046	+154	Under	-$5,104	04-08 04:20
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	12	$4.3K	60,067	60,067	+0	No	-$1,356	04-08 00:35
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$3.8K	15,171	15,171	+0	No	-$455	07-02 08:31
nba cha bos 2026 04 07 total 219pt5	4	$3.7K	7,449	0	+7,449	Under	-$3,740	04-08 00:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	2	$3.6K	35,516	35,516	+0	No	+$0	08-24 03:36
lol gen kt 2026 08 19 total games 2pt5	14	$3.3K	2,409	2,409	+0	Over	+$1,539	08-19 12:48
jap yom kas 2026 08 07 btts	2	$3.2K	2,100	2,100	+0	Yes	+$1,013	08-07 10:45
epl ips sun 2026 08 22 btts	2	$3.2K	2,079	2,079	+0	Yes	+$996	08-22 14:59
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	2	$3.1K	2,097	2,097	+0	KT Rolster	+$1,090	05-07 09:43
atp vachero navone 2026 08 06	9	$3.0K	2,022	2,022	+0	Mariano Navone	+$586	08-05 15:41
nba por phx 2026 04 14	2	$2.8K	2,691	2,648	+44	Trail Blazers	+$346	04-15 04:07
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)	2	$2.7K	2,249	2,249	+0	Thunder	+$581	05-08 02:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	2	$2.7K	20,430	20,430	+0	No	-$1,428	06-01 13:55
fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 btts	2	$2.4K	2,577	2,577	+0	No	-$26	06-22 04:44
nba bos mil 2026 04 03 total 216pt5	64	$2.4K	4,653	0	+4,653	Over	+$2,233	04-03 20:25
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	3	$2.4K	9,341	9,341	+0	No	-$1,275	08-28 12:20
ucl agf sf 2026 08 05 btts	2	$2.4K	1,633	1,633	+0	Yes	+$816	08-05 18:38
lol dk hle1 2026 04 08	2	$2.4K	1,471	1,455	+16	Hanwha Life Esports	+$543	04-08 09:34
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 3pt5	2	$2.3K	2,711	2,711	+0	Over	+$0	06-23 13:59
lol hle1 gen 2026 08 05	8	$2.2K	2,019	2,019	+0	Gen.G	+$229	08-05 11:54
Games Total: O/U 2.5	3	$2.2K	1,739	1,739	+0	Over	+$467	10-03 13:07
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	11	$2.2K	5,623	5,623	+0	No	-$775	07-01 13:52
nba bos mia 2026 04 01 total 228pt5	2	$2.1K	1,450	1,429	+21	Over	+$655	04-02 01:15
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)	2	$2.1K	1,651	1,651	+0	Knicks	-$593	05-09 01:30
lol lgd jdg 2026 08 16 total games 2pt5	3	$2.1K	1,443	1,443	+0	Over	+$773	08-16 08:41
nba nop nyk 2026 03 24 total 229pt5	2	$2.0K	1,347	1,347	+0	Over	+$659	03-25 03:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 04:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x6b9220…
10-28 04:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	518	35¢	$181	0x755980…
10-16 13:26:22	Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	100 Thieves	SELL	190	99¢	$188	0x0aa686…
10-16 12:53:12	Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	100 Thieves	BUY	190	51¢	$97	0x2261ba…
10-16 12:51:10	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	404	25¢	$103	0x38b35d…
10-16 08:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	259	63¢	$163	0x7ea077…
10-16 08:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	306	10¢	$31	0x4741f7…
10-16 08:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	306	16¢	$50	0x1ae64a…
10-16 05:47:22	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	335	30¢	$100	0x57745b…
10-16 05:38:37	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	20¢	$14	0x038019…
10-16 05:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	395	28¢	$112	0x54b9ee…
10-16 05:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x6f3851…
10-16 05:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	352	27¢	$94	0x9701d5…
10-16 04:51:10	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	694	1¢	$8	0x434a55…
10-16 02:48:37	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	19¢	$34	0xcdc6bb…
10-16 02:23:54	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	262	1¢	$3	0x815574…
10-16 02:20:55	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	203	28¢	$57	0xe02d5f…
10-16 02:15:24	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	317	32¢	$100	0x8270c7…
10-16 01:48:15	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	262	6¢	$17	0xf19e59…
10-16 01:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9PM ET	Up	SELL	301	5¢	$15	0x967229…
10-16 01:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	120	21¢	$25	0xa16df4…
10-16 01:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	84	22¢	$19	0x4b2610…
10-16 01:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	96	21¢	$20	0xa4d7a0…
10-15 16:32:53	lol c9 kc 2026 10 15 total games 3pt5	Over	BUY	141	70¢	$99	0xbaee34…
10-15 16:31:53	lol c9 kc 2026 10 15 total games 3pt5	Over	BUY	429	70¢	$300	0x072d1b…
10-15 14:40:55	cs2 hero bcg 2026 10 15 game1	BC.Game Esports	SELL	122	35¢	$42	0x3ff506…
10-15 14:40:47	cs2 hero bcg 2026 10 15 game1	BC.Game Esports	SELL	110	38¢	$42	0xec7006…
10-15 14:34:23	cs2 hero bcg 2026 10 15 game1	BC.Game Esports	BUY	231	22¢	$50	0x37b4fa…
10-15 13:56:49	dota2 lynx dawnbu 2026 10 15	Dawn Bulls	BUY	224	9¢	$20	0x8cc2da…
10-15 13:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x8e9635…
10-15 13:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x1df35a…
10-15 13:33:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	133	98¢	$131	0x7f1316…
10-15 13:31:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0xaec1f7…
10-15 13:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0xe61bb7…
10-15 13:27:37	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D	MIBR	SELL	204	15¢	$30	0x0096d9…
10-15 13:23:47	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D	MIBR	BUY	204	54¢	$110	0x2b583a…
10-15 13:18:02	Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	9z	SELL	400	66¢	$264	0x910f3e…
10-15 12:24:11	Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	9z	BUY	400	26¢	$104	0xdeb899…
10-15 12:15:17	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner	MIBR	SELL	427	85¢	$363	0xfab5cf…
10-15 12:12:28	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner	MIBR	BUY	427	66¢	$281	0x2bada1…
10-14 12:00:48	lol fox1 kt 2026 10 14 game4	KT Rolster	BUY	875	12¢	$105	0x711410…
10-14 12:00:00	cs2 ast10 sashi 2026 10 14 game2	Sashi Esport	SELL	9	17¢	$2	0xd59890…
10-14 12:00:00	cs2 ast10 sashi 2026 10 14 game2	Sashi Esport	SELL	370	17¢	$63	0x66b06c…
10-14 11:59:57	cs2 ast10 sashi 2026 10 14 game2	Sashi Esport	SELL	241	17¢	$41	0x9a0f32…
10-14 11:59:54	cs2 ast10 sashi 2026 10 14 game2	Sashi Esport	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0x9a8a08…
10-14 11:59:54	cs2 ast10 sashi 2026 10 14 game2	Sashi Esport	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x7b5dc6…
10-14 11:37:52	cs2 ast10 sashi 2026 10 14 game2	Sashi Esport	BUY	648	9¢	$57	0x817ba9…
10-14 02:47:23	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	SELL	4,593	10¢	$478	0x3615fc…
10-13 16:23:28	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	93	21¢	$20	0xa1c22b…
10-13 15:37:59	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,069	23¢	$476	0xd18a79…
10-13 15:34:40	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	649	23¢	$149	0xc708de…
10-13 15:34:34	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xef5c3d…
10-13 15:34:34	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd2fcbe…
10-13 15:34:32	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x95f53f…
10-13 15:34:32	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x53c7fa…
10-13 15:34:31	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	649	23¢	$149	0xb903f2…
10-13 15:32:50	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	63	23¢	$15	0x6f9a9f…
10-13 13:49:46	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xcfae04…
10-13 13:44:29	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	426	23¢	$98	0xa5c3a1…
10-13 12:52:35	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	422	23¢	$97	0x1b352a…
10-13 11:47:32	Will Shanghai Port FC win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	SELL	595	2¢	$12	0xa083b7…
10-13 09:47:17	Will Shanghai Port FC win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	595	42¢	$250	0x1e5ab9…
10-13 09:16:14	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner	Team WE	SELL	400	49¢	$194	0xf20fc9…
10-13 09:12:59	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner	Team WE	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xbe6b4f…
10-13 09:10:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:00 UTC	Up	SELL	570	36¢	$207	0xb915f7…
10-13 09:03:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	570	11¢	$60	0xcb96b8…
10-13 09:02:35	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner	Team WE	SELL	605	15¢	$91	0x2e5f1a…
10-13 08:54:02	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner	Team WE	BUY	605	43¢	$260	0xa15bd9…
10-13 07:29:35	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner	Team WE	SELL	487	94¢	$458	0x1565f9…
10-13 07:18:07	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner	Team WE	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0xa6774c…
10-13 07:17:31	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	SELL	135	22¢	$30	0xc6ae26…
10-13 07:16:01	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner	Team WE	BUY	444	52¢	$230	0x757dc4…
10-12 15:57:11	Al Wasl FC vs. Al Ahli Saudi FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	1,026	65¢	$668	0x91ceb3…
10-12 14:37:17	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x6c3958…
10-12 14:36:44	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xdcd117…
10-12 14:36:39	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	92	22¢	$20	0xf761b8…
10-12 14:31:26	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	26	22¢	$6	0x3186a5…
10-12 14:29:35	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xc7b66c…
10-09 14:25:36	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	FURIA	BUY	29	44¢	$13	0x8060cc…
10-09 14:21:48	cs2 furia mouz 2026 10 09 game1	FURIA	BUY	600	38¢	$228	0x38d6c1…
10-09 11:06:31	Kashima Antlers vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	485	51¢	$247	0x723f29…
10-09 10:37:16	Kashima Antlers vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xd1d892…
10-09 10:37:16	Kashima Antlers vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	4	40¢	$1	0xa3f9dd…
10-09 10:37:16	Kashima Antlers vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	301	40¢	$120	0x39fbf2…
10-09 10:37:15	Kashima Antlers vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	56	40¢	$23	0x4fc1a3…
10-09 10:37:15	Kashima Antlers vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	51	40¢	$20	0x473520…
10-09 10:31:15	Kashima Antlers vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	65	40¢	$26	0xe77fd6…
10-06 04:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x521e85…
10-06 04:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x2994b9…
10-06 04:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x8c52dd…
10-06 04:27:43	Suzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Aliona Falei	Aliona Falei	SELL	76	45¢	$34	0x5f719c…
10-06 04:21:27	Suzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Aliona Falei	Aliona Falei	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xcbdab1…
10-06 04:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x315043…
10-06 04:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x19ab33…
10-06 04:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xae6ab6…
10-06 04:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x584b92…
10-06 04:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xfce321…
10-06 04:07:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x342943…
10-06 04:01:16	Suzhou: Moyuka Uchijima vs Zhuoxuan Bai	Moyuka Uchijima	SELL	155	28¢	$43	0xa84e8d…
10-06 03:50:04	Suzhou: Moyuka Uchijima vs Zhuoxuan Bai	Moyuka Uchijima	BUY	155	53¢	$82	0xc72671…