Lost-Licence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$85

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

Trades

642

lifetime

Volume

$32.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-02 14:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 49% $-161

Other

14% 100% +$77

Politics

11% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$1.1K	538	538	+0	open	—	02-02 11:33
will the us next strike iran in january 2026 et	2	$1.0K	531	531	+0	open	—	02-01 13:40
btc updown 5m 1776851700	4	$851	577	557	+20	open	—	04-22 10:01
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$772	813	111	+701	open	—	02-28 02:12
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	2	$663	344	344	+0	open	—	02-06 10:36
will sp 500 spx close over 6700 on the final trading day of february 2026	9	$631	855	536	+319	open	—	02-18 19:00
will silver si hit high 150 by end of february 397 652 494 395 172	2	$526	269	269	+0	open	—	02-12 23:40
btc updown 5m 1776800700	1	$500	855	0	+855	open	—	04-21 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	7	$486	565	540	+25	open	—	04-27 14:59
will silver si hit low 75 by end of february 739 471 473 237 171 573 124 784	2	$483	295	295	+0	open	—	02-13 08:16
will silver si hit low 55 by end of february 998 393 222 319 616 673 571 163	2	$452	238	238	+0	open	—	02-21 23:12
will silver si hit high 120 by end of february 431 947 594 173 652 316	5	$440	242	242	+0	open	—	02-17 13:40
btc updown 5m 1776521100	1	$400	806	0	+806	open	—	04-18 14:06
btc updown 5m 1776682800	2	$400	727	0	+727	open	—	04-20 11:01
btc updown 5m 1777034400	1	$381	685	0	+685	open	—	04-24 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$330	183	181	+2	open	—	04-27 11:58
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13?	4	$327	202	202	+0	Up	+$77	05-13 20:41
btc updown 5m 1776800400	3	$315	957	0	+957	open	—	04-21 19:42
btc updown 5m 1776340200	2	$306	217	208	+8	open	—	04-16 11:53
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14?	3	$300	233	233	+0	open	—	05-14 17:53
btc updown 5m 1776526200	1	$300	400	0	+400	open	—	04-18 15:34
btc updown 5m 1776590700	1	$300	531	0	+531	open	—	04-19 09:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	1	$300	503	0	+503	open	—	04-27 15:20
btc updown 5m 1777033200	2	$296	400	386	+14	open	—	04-24 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	2	$292	198	198	+0	open	—	05-18 13:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	3	$271	371	264	+106	Down	$-28	05-13 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$243	145	145	+0	open	—	05-19 10:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10AM ET	6	$242	257	157	+100	open	—	04-30 15:16
btc updown 5m 1776426600	2	$237	154	150	+4	open	—	04-17 11:52
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	4	$234	316	316	+0	open	—	05-19 12:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 14:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x0dc398…
06-02 13:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	62	72¢	$45	0x161a25…
06-02 13:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x772b88…
06-02 13:42:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x85a342…
06-02 13:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	53	49¢	$26	0x5aba35…
06-02 13:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x9d3d5a…
06-02 13:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x58030c…
05-25 12:37:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	36	91¢	$32	0x8f72c0…
05-19 19:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	145	47¢	$68	0x0e9d3d…
05-19 18:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	52	52¢	$27	0x824c6b…
05-19 18:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x6719db…
05-19 18:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x3915f8…
05-19 13:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0xed5d13…
05-19 13:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0xd106f7…
05-19 13:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x844445…
05-19 13:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	117	59¢	$68	0xf0fdff…
05-19 13:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	117	43¢	$50	0xf0cf35…
05-19 12:48:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0xa7ae2f…
05-19 12:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	173	58¢	$100	0x0b9d79…
05-19 12:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xe84ead…
05-19 12:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	24	31¢	$8	0xd7bb6b…
05-19 12:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	93	43¢	$40	0xcd4122…
05-19 12:11:13	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	SELL	316	26¢	$83	0x676705…
05-19 12:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	57	87¢	$49	0xdae346…
05-19 12:07:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x8de6c0…
05-19 10:38:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x1786bc…
05-19 10:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	145	99¢	$143	0xe83aa4…
05-19 10:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xc87a72…
05-19 10:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	87	63¢	$55	0x172ccb…
05-19 10:14:37	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	68	34¢	$23	0x3abd78…
05-19 07:39:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	221	54¢	$120	0xf033ab…
05-18 20:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x4ef08a…
05-18 18:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x613c2b…
05-18 18:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	68	30¢	$20	0x0b9209…
05-18 18:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0x761edb…
05-18 18:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x3f90d0…
05-18 18:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	46	66¢	$30	0xef4d2e…
05-18 18:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x0930cb…
05-18 14:34:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x4f6925…
05-18 13:54:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	198	97¢	$192	0xbbb937…
05-18 13:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	198	50¢	$100	0xb73cdc…
05-18 13:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	407	1¢	$5	0xdd94d3…
05-18 13:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xae58cb…
05-18 13:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x8f6753…
05-18 10:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xcf5e92…
05-18 10:31:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x53656b…
05-18 10:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	62	54¢	$34	0xbe4b8a…
05-18 10:19:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xf40215…
05-18 10:18:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	19	13¢	$2	0x79d72a…
05-18 10:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x0c81d7…
05-18 10:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	40	73¢	$29	0x9f2cc1…
05-18 10:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x8de01e…
05-18 10:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x8c75a7…
05-17 22:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0x9dc1b2…
05-17 22:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x505dc2…
05-17 22:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x6a2f5b…
05-17 22:06:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x2a5676…
05-17 22:05:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0xfaa217…
05-17 22:01:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0x7b983b…
05-17 21:56:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x00c049…
05-17 21:50:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	139	54¢	$75	0xfd37eb…
05-17 20:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	43	14¢	$6	0x4af1d1…
05-17 20:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x307166…
05-17 20:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	32	22¢	$7	0xd7733a…
05-17 20:18:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x2aedd5…
05-17 18:27:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x0bf471…
05-17 18:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xf6f97c…
05-17 18:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x41a5e9…
05-17 17:04:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	31	45¢	$14	0x2a8801…
05-17 16:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	29	75¢	$22	0x6bc747…
05-17 16:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x178105…
05-17 16:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xab997e…
05-17 16:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x7962b2…
05-17 16:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x4b6970…
05-17 16:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	114	74¢	$84	0x0a5a25…
05-17 16:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	64	43¢	$28	0x8e1ce1…
05-17 16:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xd1c7a4…
05-17 16:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0xfea206…
05-17 16:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x6a78ca…
05-17 16:29:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0x6972a1…
05-17 16:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	21	19¢	$4	0xff8c75…
05-17 16:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x24fa41…
05-16 11:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xcee8da…
05-16 11:41:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	64	85¢	$54	0x870258…
05-16 11:32:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	64	39¢	$25	0xa9f321…
05-15 13:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x0009dc…
05-15 13:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0xcc372f…
05-15 13:26:51	Counter-Strike: FTUR vs Vitality Academy (BO3) - United21 Group B	FTUR	SELL	102	13¢	$13	0xcc1b08…
05-15 12:42:53	Counter-Strike: FTUR vs Vitality Academy (BO3) - United21 Group B	FTUR	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x2e476f…
05-15 12:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0x2f11c8…
05-15 12:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x30ce9d…
05-15 12:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x8acc38…
05-15 12:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	125	70¢	$88	0xd69408…
05-15 12:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x837dc5…
05-14 19:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0x2e2b0b…
05-14 19:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xf31645…
05-14 19:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x0aa04c…
05-14 17:53:28	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	233	86¢	$200	0xee66a9…
05-14 11:38:04	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x9ac5ce…
05-14 08:40:11	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x22e50c…