Defensive-Plunger — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$82.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$17.3K

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved

324

Trades

15,549

lifetime

Volume

$1.02M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$44.4K

25 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 02:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

94% 51% +$79,910

Politics

5% 71% +$2,930

Crypto

1% 100% +$82

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 263 trades/day

Open positions (25) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	+9,439	$8,188	86¢	$8.2K	-$23	10-30 00:21
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	+6,680	$103	84¢	$5.6K	+$5,541	10-30 00:12
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+5,000	$4,550	94¢	$4.7K	+$175	10-11 22:46
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+77,908	-$310	6¢	$4.3K	+$4,634	11-01 02:15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+5,000	$3,750	72¢	$3.6K	-$125	10-30 13:21
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-3,000	-$2,080	97¢	$-2908	-$829	05-14 01:21
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+3,000	$2,715	90¢	$2.7K	+$0	10-29 16:45
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+2,373	$1,269	93¢	$2.2K	+$927	10-21 18:29
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+3,089	$1,970	70¢	$2.2K	+$208	10-26 22:36
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+3,676	$343	41¢	$1.5K	+$1,148	10-29 09:39
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,500	$1,370	92¢	$1.4K	+$17	10-29 17:41
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+1,493	-$43	70¢	$1.0K	+$1,088	09-29 18:01
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	No	+1,013	$851	96¢	$976	+$125	05-17 13:24
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$920	94¢	$935	+$15	10-29 09:38
Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes	+1,070	$642	64¢	$685	+$43	10-29 10:01
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	+705	-$3,138	92¢	$648	+$3,786	08-12 20:57
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+1,000	$390	48¢	$485	+$95	10-29 09:48
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+1,885	$1,372	7¢	$133	-$1,239	10-15 21:46
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+4,586	$925	1¢	$60	-$865	09-23 21:06
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	+52	$5	72¢	$37	+$32	09-11 00:12
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+1,500	$76	2¢	$29	-$47	10-01 08:49
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+19,460	$136	0¢	$29	-$107	10-01 13:40
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+1,000	$4	1¢	$7	+$3	09-29 20:37
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+1,725	$19	0¢	$3	-$17	09-17 14:32
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	-$2,745	99¢	$0	+$2,745	10-31 10:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	16	$38.3K	32,682	7,200	+25,482	Yes	+$1,371	01-25 22:59
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	66	$37.9K	43,542	0	+43,542	Yes	+$5,618	10-15 06:41
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	96	$30.1K	20,045	19,340	+705	open	—	08-12 20:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	40	$29.5K	30,833	2,000	+28,833	Yes	+$3,301	03-18 12:55
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	70	$27.8K	40,667	41,644	-978	Yes	+$1,088	05-20 14:04
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	412	$26.2K	25,832	3,976	+21,856	Yes	+$2,781	04-29 10:39
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	58	$23.7K	21,834	15,155	+6,680	open	—	10-30 00:12
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	253	$23.1K	28,768	0	+28,768	Yes	+$5,621	04-10 10:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	65	$21.8K	14,212	11,859	+2,353	Yes	-$2,232	07-19 22:00
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	51	$21.4K	25,456	0	+25,456	Yes	+$4,038	06-09 01:50
will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	347	$19.0K	33,268	4,115	+29,153	No	-$8,923	04-10 12:01
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	70	$18.7K	21,462	0	+21,462	Yes	+$2,759	08-26 21:22
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	179	$17.6K	26,018	0	+26,018	Yes	+$8,049	08-12 08:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	16	$17.6K	13,808	13,808	+0	No	+$675	08-13 10:04
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	153	$17.3K	21,214	15	+21,199	Yes	+$3,911	05-21 08:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	11	$15.8K	13,396	9,896	+3,500	Yes	+$2,261	10-21 18:33
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	110	$15.4K	14,917	3,682	+11,235	Yes	+$1,906	04-14 02:10
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	38	$15.0K	10,310	7,932	+2,378	No	+$603	02-10 10:59
no change in bank of englands interest rates after march 2026 meeting 453	131	$14.5K	17,918	4,629	+13,289	Yes	+$3,441	03-14 10:31
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in january 381	121	$14.1K	9,212	5,511	+3,701	No	+$544	02-12 22:51
nothing ever happens interest rates	111	$13.9K	16,602	494	+16,108	Yes	+$2,988	03-18 21:27
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	70	$13.0K	14,428	0	+14,428	Yes	+$1,008	04-10 11:15
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt1 or less in january 157	47	$12.3K	16,154	0	+16,154	No	+$3,809	02-12 23:20
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	43	$12.2K	7,624	7,623	+0	open	—	10-31 10:32
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in january 763	65	$12.2K	12,953	1,111	+11,842	No	+$748	02-13 01:09
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt1 or less in december	16	$10.5K	11,614	0	+11,614	No	+$1,108	01-09 02:20
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	4	$10.4K	11,000	0	+11,000	No	+$604	05-22 02:23
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	42	$10.3K	12,380	0	+12,380	Yes	+$2,080	08-11 04:04
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	73	$9.9K	8,133	3,311	+4,822	Yes	+$1,246	04-17 20:10
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	85	$9.1K	11,412	3,928	+7,484	No	-$5,706	04-12 13:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 02:15:06	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	201	6¢	$12	0x8610de…
11-01 02:15:00	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	292	6¢	$17	0xacc130…
10-31 22:51:43	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x670579…
10-31 14:06:46	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	700	25¢	$175	0x2da21b…
10-31 10:32:06	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0x011d53…
10-31 10:31:10	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x264017…
10-31 10:31:09	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x2c4590…
10-31 10:31:07	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x57e433…
10-31 10:31:06	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x2a942f…
10-31 10:31:06	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x04967c…
10-31 10:30:10	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x673e42…
10-31 10:30:09	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0xc9392f…
10-31 10:30:07	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x4a120c…
10-31 10:30:06	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x1002f8…
10-31 10:30:04	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x580ff9…
10-31 10:29:07	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x979cba…
10-31 10:29:07	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x68b47d…
10-31 10:29:06	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0xd33e25…
10-31 10:29:06	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x2a3129…
10-31 10:29:04	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	530	98¢	$521	0xa48d66…
10-31 10:29:04	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0xa143b4…
10-31 07:37:07	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	554	98¢	$544	0xb0390e…
10-31 06:58:48	Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0xbfd4ff…
10-31 06:58:45	Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x892fc8…
10-31 06:08:55	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	451	95¢	$430	0x700345…
10-31 01:01:55	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	98¢	$147	0xbd462c…
10-31 00:59:33	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	606	98¢	$595	0x7b6ca6…
10-31 00:59:31	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	98¢	$491	0x8dcd00…
10-31 00:51:03	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8,061	5¢	$379	0x08b483…
10-30 23:09:34	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xa9b7f5…
10-30 21:31:31	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xe232ee…
10-30 21:31:27	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x682f21…
10-30 21:30:30	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x6bac12…
10-30 21:30:27	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xc84022…
10-30 21:30:06	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1d95fc…
10-30 13:21:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x10ee44…
10-30 13:10:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0xb22197…
10-30 13:02:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	83	75¢	$62	0xa4269e…
10-30 13:02:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x305f51…
10-30 12:42:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x2278c4…
10-30 12:36:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	277	75¢	$208	0x97f79b…
10-30 12:36:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	401	75¢	$301	0x481bd9…
10-30 12:36:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,128	75¢	$2,346	0xc1fd42…
10-30 12:36:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	393	75¢	$295	0xb59c99…
10-30 12:36:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	292	75¢	$219	0x43218d…
10-30 12:26:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	257	75¢	$193	0x924ead…
10-30 08:24:57	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,058	98¢	$1,040	0x421778…
10-30 05:15:37	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	280	18¢	$50	0xa40c67…
10-30 05:15:36	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0x74ac41…
10-30 04:08:25	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0x3ac44c…
10-30 04:06:51	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xd36fe9…
10-30 00:22:54	Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank?	Yes	BUY	259	31¢	$80	0xe77a28…
10-30 00:21:04	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,039	86¢	$5,194	0x6d10d9…
10-30 00:12:55	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	6,680	86¢	$5,725	0x8e4806…
10-29 19:10:58	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	92	0¢	$0	0x2342a1…
10-29 19:03:40	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	98¢	$81	0x3b3197…
10-29 17:41:35	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	978	91¢	$890	0x51e530…
10-29 17:18:26	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x5e7328…
10-29 17:18:23	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	61	98¢	$60	0x540ab8…
10-29 17:17:50	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x236726…
10-29 17:17:47	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,153	98¢	$1,133	0xeb7516…
10-29 17:14:50	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	139	5¢	$7	0xc3cbda…
10-29 17:13:43	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	795	3¢	$24	0x68c916…
10-29 17:13:17	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	267	3¢	$8	0xf57525…
10-29 16:54:47	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	138	3¢	$4	0x63aff8…
10-29 16:45:29	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,499	90¢	$1,349	0x9122f9…
10-29 16:11:07	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x6d4ca2…
10-29 16:06:04	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x9dd5dd…
10-29 13:34:25	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb856fb…
10-29 12:45:52	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x186f46…
10-29 12:31:17	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	98	98¢	$96	0xfce8d2…
10-29 12:31:14	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	600	98¢	$590	0x679cd5…
10-29 12:20:10	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x8efb26…
10-29 11:53:25	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	424	98¢	$417	0xc87951…
10-29 11:53:23	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	81	98¢	$79	0x6b91e6…
10-29 11:53:20	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0xd38801…
10-29 10:08:26	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,898	88¢	$1,670	0x0b1585…
10-29 10:01:14	Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,070	60¢	$642	0x4b9d66…
10-29 10:01:07	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0xb7c3ff…
10-29 10:00:25	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,102	88¢	$967	0x5e2af4…
10-29 09:48:04	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	39¢	$390	0xd11c36…
10-29 09:40:19	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	449	98¢	$441	0x47d0b0…
10-29 09:39:31	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,225	43¢	$528	0x73160c…
10-29 09:38:52	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x1d57d8…
10-29 09:38:25	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x622801…
10-29 09:37:59	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	91¢	$1,365	0xf14f48…
10-29 07:58:28	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7,922	1¢	$79	0xf94a0b…
10-29 01:27:25	Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	98¢	$131	0xa2a73e…
10-28 23:40:23	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	273	70¢	$191	0xdf28a6…
10-28 23:39:59	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xf0e683…
10-28 23:39:58	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	64	1¢	$1	0xce541c…
10-28 18:14:02	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	228	2¢	$3	0x92a9b5…
10-28 18:05:26	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	126	2¢	$3	0xd7f6ee…
10-28 12:41:01	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	SELL	250	40¢	$100	0xf2b006…
10-28 12:41:01	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	SELL	212	40¢	$85	0x80313d…
10-27 13:40:05	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	BUY	158	27¢	$43	0xc56ece…
10-27 09:50:41	Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xe1920b…
10-27 00:51:08	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	69¢	$1,035	0x84a6bf…
10-26 22:36:50	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	64¢	$1,280	0x017bc2…
10-26 22:36:23	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	524	63¢	$330	0x9aae5f…