Defensive-Plunger — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.84K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.06K

Hit rate

97.5%

Resolved

Trades

9,086

lifetime

Volume

$504.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

$16.5K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-18 20:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

97% 59% +$2,842

Politics

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	-13,679	$-11,624	86¢	$-11764	$-140	07-15 14:37
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	+5,101	$-296	76¢	$3.9K	+$4,173	07-13 12:10
ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	+906	$797	92¢	$829	+$32	07-18 20:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	16	$38.3K	32,682	7,200	+25,482	open	—	01-25 22:59
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	40	$29.5K	30,833	2,000	+28,833	open	—	03-18 12:55
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	412	$26.2K	25,832	3,976	+21,856	Yes	+$2,781	04-29 10:39
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	253	$23.1K	28,768	0	+28,768	open	—	04-10 10:21
will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	347	$19.0K	33,268	4,115	+29,153	open	—	04-10 12:01
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	110	$15.4K	14,917	3,682	+11,235	open	—	04-14 02:10
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	38	$15.0K	10,310	7,932	+2,378	open	—	02-10 10:59
no change in bank of englands interest rates after march 2026 meeting 453	131	$14.5K	17,918	4,629	+13,289	open	—	03-14 10:31
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in january 381	121	$14.1K	9,212	5,511	+3,701	open	—	02-12 22:51
nothing ever happens interest rates	111	$13.9K	16,602	494	+16,108	open	—	03-18 21:27
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	70	$13.0K	14,428	0	+14,428	open	—	04-10 11:15
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt1 or less in january 157	47	$12.3K	16,154	0	+16,154	open	—	02-12 23:20
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in january 763	65	$12.2K	12,953	1,111	+11,842	open	—	02-13 01:09
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	34	$11.6K	0	13,679	-13,679	open	—	07-15 14:37
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt1 or less in december	16	$10.5K	11,614	0	+11,614	open	—	01-09 02:20
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	73	$9.9K	8,133	3,311	+4,822	open	—	04-17 20:10
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	34	$9.7K	12,175	7,074	+5,101	open	—	07-13 12:10
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	85	$9.1K	11,412	3,928	+7,484	open	—	04-12 13:22
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt3 in february 312	320	$8.3K	16,647	2,350	+14,297	open	—	03-11 11:39
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?	41	$8.2K	10,595	115	+10,480	open	—	04-25 14:46
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be greater than 3pt5	92	$7.6K	11,966	842	+11,124	open	—	02-20 12:53
will annual inflation increase by 2pt4 in february 763 544 382 181	402	$7.6K	18,653	0	+18,653	open	—	03-10 20:53
will annual inflation increase by 3pt3 in march	366	$7.4K	21,355	0	+21,355	open	—	04-10 11:22
will annual inflation increase by 2pt5 in february 439 553 591 573	337	$7.0K	16,889	813	+16,076	open	—	03-11 11:48
will annual inflation increase by 2pt4 in january 964	299	$6.7K	19,316	0	+19,316	open	—	02-12 23:24
will elon and doge cut more than 200k employees in 2025	10	$6.2K	3,444	2,920	+524	open	—	01-06 10:26
will the bank of canada announce no change at the march meeting	40	$6.2K	6,341	0	+6,341	open	—	03-16 06:17
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt2 in february 422	328	$6.0K	14,710	0	+14,710	open	—	03-11 12:01
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$5.8K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	02-13 18:44
will annual inflation increase by 2pt5 in january 758	337	$5.7K	21,041	0	+21,041	open	—	02-12 23:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 20:11:49	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	BUY	906	88¢	$797	0x30c6c8…
07-15 14:37:56	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0xa0caae…
07-13 12:47:53	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0xabe0ee…
07-13 12:10:10	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x18f514…
07-13 09:50:47	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	500	88¢	$440	0xe25b2f…
07-12 23:20:25	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xdbd2a5…
07-12 23:09:28	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x2a970d…
07-12 23:08:32	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x6d42d2…
07-12 01:15:08	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x1e9aa5…
07-11 23:28:17	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	55	88¢	$49	0xc76330…
07-11 21:43:28	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	15	88¢	$14	0x9908ce…
07-11 19:47:16	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	39	88¢	$34	0x4d1dd9…
07-11 19:45:49	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x450345…
07-11 19:39:22	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0x2c991e…
07-09 11:45:47	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0x41a773…
07-08 12:34:46	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x31dc4b…
07-08 10:42:35	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	264	88¢	$233	0x97b422…
07-08 10:38:56	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	98	88¢	$86	0x79cf7b…
07-07 11:20:19	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	800	88¢	$704	0x72fecd…
07-06 16:27:19	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$4	0x42d20b…
07-06 06:47:49	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	39	88¢	$34	0x8499e9…
07-04 16:35:05	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xde7fca…
07-02 22:00:44	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x090949…
06-28 04:07:04	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	2,357	88¢	$2,074	0x1a339f…
06-27 00:01:56	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0xa274ad…
06-25 21:59:22	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x00bae5…
06-25 12:54:55	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xac9da8…
06-24 11:50:34	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	56	81¢	$45	0x84bf29…
06-24 10:11:23	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	300	81¢	$243	0x586d9d…
06-23 22:08:50	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	676	81¢	$548	0x16fe70…
06-16 15:45:44	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	320	88¢	$282	0xa66908…
06-16 08:52:45	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	80	85¢	$68	0xf101fb…
06-16 07:23:57	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	101	85¢	$86	0xa8f905…
06-16 05:49:31	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x9af9d6…
06-16 05:30:15	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	500	85¢	$425	0xd3df72…
06-15 21:47:33	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	85¢	$850	0x488cc2…
06-15 21:12:33	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	303	85¢	$257	0xe464b2…
06-15 19:46:27	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	700	85¢	$595	0x4db9c8…
06-15 18:51:33	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	410	85¢	$348	0xadc440…
06-15 17:08:27	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	465	85¢	$395	0xf352c8…
06-14 21:53:22	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	2,669	70¢	$1,868	0x1580c7…
06-14 21:32:42	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	125	67¢	$83	0x1682b2…
06-14 21:28:25	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0x2fb315…
06-14 21:25:51	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	280	67¢	$188	0xbdff16…
06-13 05:39:01	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	2,342	67¢	$1,569	0xf0b30e…
06-13 05:39:01	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	125	67¢	$84	0x98f19f…
06-13 05:39:01	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	120	67¢	$80	0x92c21c…
06-12 19:04:18	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	4,443	82¢	$3,643	0xc4bf84…
06-12 09:55:19	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x4abbcf…
06-11 12:41:09	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	23	82¢	$19	0xdbbece…
06-11 11:42:45	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xa88887…
06-11 11:40:24	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	244	82¢	$200	0x35ece3…
06-11 08:24:40	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	SELL	300	82¢	$246	0xf6d0fd…
06-09 20:39:40	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x41d9a1…
06-09 20:39:30	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x1135bf…
06-09 18:51:21	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	31	45¢	$14	0xe41258…
06-09 14:30:12	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x2f7f49…
06-09 07:28:18	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x971f65…
06-09 01:50:40	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	694	98¢	$679	0x177f57…
06-09 01:38:36	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb6972b…
06-09 01:38:36	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x835c73…
06-09 01:38:36	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5e368e…
06-09 01:38:34	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xef5229…
06-09 01:38:34	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xea5381…
06-08 21:42:04	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	656	45¢	$295	0xa69e29…
06-08 21:41:40	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	767	98¢	$750	0xad6ff9…
06-06 13:56:34	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	267	39¢	$104	0xfd031a…
06-06 13:52:49	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	840	39¢	$328	0x3597df…
06-05 13:17:33	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	2,441	38¢	$928	0xd212f7…
06-05 11:59:31	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xf17496…
06-05 11:59:31	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x0948e9…
06-05 11:59:30	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x878904…
06-05 11:59:22	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xce4f14…
06-05 11:59:18	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x8e40b0…
06-05 11:59:18	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0x1f0058…
06-05 11:59:15	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	7,448	38¢	$2,801	0xed48d3…
05-08 17:38:56	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	78	67¢	$52	0x8217fb…
05-08 15:02:54	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	240	67¢	$160	0x213a82…
05-08 15:02:47	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	683	67¢	$457	0x995509…
05-07 20:40:28	Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	978	73¢	$714	0x5f08ad…
04-29 10:39:28	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	93¢	$91	0xc21062…
04-28 18:46:12	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,073	91¢	$977	0xb14727…
04-28 18:39:52	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	91¢	$4,550	0x27376c…
04-28 09:58:46	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xd42015…
04-28 09:58:44	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0x9c020f…
04-28 09:58:44	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x8c3c06…
04-28 08:51:48	Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0xa4a4c9…
04-28 08:51:48	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0x2c0f0c…
04-28 08:51:22	Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0xd34b1b…
04-28 08:51:22	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0x1ad9df…
04-28 08:50:18	Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0xa73448…
04-28 08:50:18	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0xa1a442…
04-28 08:49:52	Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0xc8b260…
04-28 08:49:52	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0x0fcdcc…
04-28 08:49:12	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0xd2bd15…
04-28 08:49:12	Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x01f39a…
04-28 08:48:48	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xd54396…
04-28 08:48:48	Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x7b4c3f…
04-28 08:29:42	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0x83b9df…
04-28 08:29:42	Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x1f9036…