Apprehensive-Bargain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.5%

Resolved

Trades

172

lifetime

Volume

$2.75K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-01 08:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

42% 50% $-4

Other

35% — —

Politics

22% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1767888000	2	$276	233	229	+3	open	—	01-08 16:09
Nothing Ever Happens: March	4	$258	261	261	+0	open	—	04-07 09:10
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	2	$216	159	159	+0	open	—	02-28 07:01
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	3	$213	133	133	+0	open	—	03-22 20:45
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	8	$172	10,969	10,969	+0	open	—	04-22 15:46
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$150	190	190	+0	open	—	03-20 15:54
btc updown 4h 1775491200	2	$133	422	0	+422	open	—	04-06 17:26
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$99	789	289	+500	open	—	02-28 07:21
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	3	$87	168	168	+0	open	—	02-27 21:17
btc updown 4h 1772197200	2	$73	47	47	+0	open	—	02-27 16:54
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	2	$62	48	48	+0	open	—	02-28 07:02
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$62	901	901	+0	open	—	02-28 07:00
btc updown 4h 1775462400	1	$52	78	0	+78	open	—	04-06 08:56
will the social democrats popular vote margin of victory in the 2026 denmark parliamentary election be between 5 and 10	1	$50	87	0	+87	open	—	03-22 21:15
btc updown 4h 1772269200	1	$50	111	0	+111	open	—	02-28 09:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	2	$45	83	0	+83	open	—	05-16 12:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	5	$43	86	0	+86	open	—	05-23 08:51
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 280 299	1	$40	267	0	+267	open	—	03-19 09:52
btc updown 15m 1767291300	2	$39	38	38	+0	open	—	01-01 15:02
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	1	$38	47	0	+47	open	—	03-16 10:05
bitcoin up or down march 11 4am et	2	$32	22	22	+0	open	—	03-11 09:04
btc updown 15m 1767282300	2	$30	63	16	+46	open	—	01-01 15:58
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 260 279	2	$26	1,388	0	+1,388	open	—	03-19 09:55
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$25	32	0	+32	open	—	03-05 21:01
btc updown 4h 1773158400	2	$25	59	0	+59	open	—	03-10 16:10
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$20	111	0	+111	open	—	05-16 12:33
btc updown 4h 1773230400	1	$20	47	0	+47	open	—	03-11 13:02
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	1	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	03-05 21:02
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	1	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	03-05 21:02
will sean penn win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	1	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	03-05 21:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 08:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xce2024…
05-31 04:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x99c9b0…
05-31 04:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x787949…
05-31 04:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x57fa80…
05-30 20:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x4bcc3a…
05-30 16:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x68336d…
05-30 16:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x318abd…
05-30 12:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0xde0fd3…
05-30 08:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xeb0e6f…
05-29 20:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xaf993c…
05-29 16:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x256ca8…
05-29 16:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x7efc8a…
05-29 16:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x785356…
05-29 08:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x0dc122…
05-28 20:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xc1ccb2…
05-28 16:05:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x8139c8…
05-28 08:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x30f956…
05-28 04:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xa1a1d2…
05-28 04:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x6d5691…
05-27 20:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x30cbfc…
05-27 16:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x76529e…
05-27 08:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2fa1fb…
05-27 04:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xfccba0…
05-26 08:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xcac2a4…
05-26 04:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x01086e…
05-26 00:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x648155…
05-25 20:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf7777b…
05-25 16:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x547297…
05-25 12:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa86130…
05-24 20:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x6a615b…
05-24 16:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xdce5b1…
05-24 12:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x79753e…
05-24 08:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x2bf5ab…
05-24 04:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x170ad3…
05-23 16:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xa99d14…
05-23 16:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1dcc2a…
05-23 12:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8a94e5…
05-23 08:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x1fe476…
05-23 08:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x7c9d81…
05-23 08:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc455f6…
05-23 08:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x5047d6…
05-23 08:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x36887c…
05-23 04:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x6f7e53…
05-23 04:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x0c4604…
05-23 00:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xb412c1…
05-23 00:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x3ff892…
05-22 20:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd57814…
05-22 20:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x971be1…
05-22 16:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x298ee8…
05-22 16:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x76aee8…
05-22 12:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xbea5b9…
05-22 08:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x37a1e8…
05-22 08:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4c26b7…
05-22 00:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xd655a8…
05-21 20:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x40af5a…
05-20 20:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x59bfd2…
05-20 12:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xd88dbb…
05-20 12:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x468fe4…
05-20 08:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5b45c7…
05-19 04:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xfa399d…
05-19 04:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xdcaa11…
05-18 16:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x944903…
05-18 16:06:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xbba7af…
05-18 12:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa09280…
05-18 12:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x3b5c4c…
05-18 04:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf3df65…
05-18 04:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x87e25e…
05-17 04:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xdff1df…
05-17 00:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xf29b80…
05-16 20:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xbd6881…
05-16 20:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0720dd…
05-16 16:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x2815e4…
05-16 16:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x0e65bf…
05-16 12:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0x1bb3c8…
05-16 12:33:06	Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x67330e…
05-16 12:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x2c11a8…
05-15 04:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x361925…
05-14 20:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xb0cd25…
05-11 08:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x86ba09…
05-11 08:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x28276f…
05-11 00:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd7d8ab…
05-11 00:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb23bd6…
05-11 00:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x7ff43c…
05-10 20:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x99c733…
05-10 20:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x6389c7…
05-10 20:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x27963f…
05-10 08:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x46c20b…
05-10 04:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x0b95c0…
05-09 20:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xede114…
05-09 16:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x4b6511…
05-09 00:05:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x174795…
05-08 23:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x96a98a…
05-08 20:41:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x768507…
05-08 20:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x6c9932…
05-08 20:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x382c47…
05-05 06:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	60¢	$12	0x38f43d…
04-22 15:46:38	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	1¢	$40	0x51c3e3…
04-22 15:36:20	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	1¢	$40	0xbfecbc…
04-22 15:25:58	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	1¢	$3	0x3b5146…
04-19 18:20:04	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	569	1¢	$5	0x91abd7…