Celebrated-Mechanic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.15K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.1%

Resolved

402

Trades

1,071

lifetime

Volume

$81.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 10-07 18:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

56% 26% -$759

Crypto

29% 24% -$1,023

Politics

9% 17% -$1,737

Sports

7% 31% +$2,370

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	11	$4.2K	6,279	3,442	+2,837	No	+$1,160	04-24 15:50
wti up or down on april 23 2026	7	$3.4K	3,833	3,753	+80	Up	-$230	04-23 16:43
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	19	$2.8K	7,392	1,554	+5,837	No	-$851	04-23 18:03
cs2 vit fal2 2026 04 15	10	$2.1K	2,179	1,427	+752	Team Falcons	+$746	04-15 22:02
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	5	$2.0K	1,474	1,431	+44	Yes	+$831	04-17 16:15
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$1.7K	1,317	1,317	+0	No	-$84	04-20 08:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$1.6K	2,940	2,940	+0	No	+$132	04-20 14:18
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	12	$1.5K	2,871	2,737	+134	Yes	+$1,246	04-14 16:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	4	$1.4K	1,621	1,621	+0	No	-$496	04-21 19:39
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Diana Shnaider	2	$1.4K	762	757	+5	Belinda Bencic	+$161	04-25 11:03
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 300 319	10	$1.3K	2,222	745	+1,476	No	-$610	04-14 15:44
nba orl det 2026 04 19	5	$1.3K	1,269	987	+282	Magic	+$719	04-20 01:10
nba min den 2026 04 20	6	$1.1K	1,325	801	+524	Timberwolves	+$479	04-21 05:29
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	9	$1.1K	2,013	2,013	+0	No	+$57	06-22 07:14
cs2 fal2 ts7 2026 04 18	2	$1.1K	1,887	0	+1,887	Spirit	-$1,102	04-18 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4AM ET	2	$1.1K	589	583	+6	Up	+$88	04-25 09:08
Thunder vs. Suns	3	$1.1K	4,901	0	+4,901	Thunder	-$1,061	04-25 21:38
elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 115 139	6	$1.0K	714	714	+0	Yes	+$185	03-21 13:19
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 65 89	4	$947	753	726	+27	Yes	+$530	04-15 16:10
cs2 mibr 3dmax 2026 04 09	3	$932	1,124	678	+446	3DMAX	+$344	04-09 10:08
dota2 ts8 flc 2026 04 19	5	$897	661	649	+12	Team Falcons	+$411	04-19 16:11
dota2 lynx 1win 2026 04 19	3	$853	602	592	+10	1win	+$340	04-19 13:46
cs2 ts7 vit 2026 04 19	7	$837	3,535	262	+3,273	Vitality	-$711	04-19 19:45
cs2 mouz 9z 2026 03 21	4	$815	1,317	770	+547	9z	+$601	03-21 17:46
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	2	$781	436	432	+4	Yes	+$86	04-21 15:27
cs2 navi furia 2026 04 14	5	$779	598	586	+12	FURIA	+$403	04-14 21:32
dota2 ts8 vg 2026 04 18	3	$761	562	551	+11	Team Spirit	+$351	04-18 10:25
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 140 164	9	$675	1,068	192	+875	No	-$421	04-13 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3AM ET	3	$668	814	770	+44	Down	+$312	04-25 08:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 22:10 UTC	4	$657	899	611	+288	Down	+$357	04-14 22:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 18:52:10	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	M80	BUY	1,560	7¢	$108	0xbe43b9…
10-07 18:00:34	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	M80	BUY	677	14¢	$95	0x4819ea…
10-07 17:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	67	9¢	$6	0xc5c466…
10-07 17:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	359	14¢	$50	0x076f14…
10-07 17:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0xfb17d4…
10-07 17:53:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	180	14¢	$25	0xf10a17…
10-07 17:52:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	387	15¢	$58	0xef4b33…
10-07 17:50:09	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0xd04c9f…
10-07 17:48:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0xabee1c…
10-07 17:47:57	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0xd293da…
10-07 17:47:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	36¢	$16	0xe07302…
10-07 17:47:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	36¢	$40	0x9fe993…
10-07 17:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	36¢	$27	0xb51528…
10-07 17:45:30	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	Natus Vincere	BUY	640	12¢	$78	0x6747fd…
10-07 17:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	842	0¢	$1	0xd352f7…
10-07 17:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xac5af2…
10-07 17:42:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	36¢	$63	0x17eb21…
10-07 17:42:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x1da445…
10-07 17:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	79	19¢	$15	0x23b1cb…
10-07 17:39:19	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	36¢	$25	0xb19524…
10-07 17:39:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	36¢	$17	0xa1d8b3…
10-07 17:39:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	583	37¢	$213	0xa64150…
10-07 07:53:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	21¢	$41	0x0276d0…
10-07 07:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	375	4¢	$15	0x84cb49…
10-07 07:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x9807f4…
10-07 07:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x834033…
10-07 07:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x8dc702…
10-07 07:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x019cfa…
10-07 07:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x2a7bd4…
10-07 07:47:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x2bc3e7…
10-07 07:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	79	19¢	$15	0x6c8a78…
10-07 07:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	784	0¢	$3	0x082c76…
10-07 07:39:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	5¢	$7	0xd19cf3…
10-07 07:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	186	99¢	$185	0xd0c276…
10-07 07:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	186	13¢	$25	0x912223…
10-07 07:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x87d307…
10-07 07:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x1cd172…
10-07 07:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0xcd2a24…
10-07 07:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9c879d…
10-07 07:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	375	7¢	$25	0xe75de7…
10-07 07:23:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	22¢	$40	0x0bcb8d…
10-07 07:23:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	7¢	$18	0x95122a…
10-07 07:08:48	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	750	20¢	$150	0x8fd6d1…
10-07 06:51:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	471	10¢	$47	0x08a2ca…
09-09 16:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	77	11¢	$8	0x537c8a…
09-09 16:57:48	Will FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	704	2¢	$17	0xa87222…
08-08 15:18:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,705	11¢	$190	0xa82e72…
08-06 15:50:23	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$9	0x905b36…
08-06 15:19:39	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	9¢	$22	0xe9025d…
08-06 15:05:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	964	13¢	$122	0xa10ee7…
06-22 09:24:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x03938b…
06-22 09:24:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	81	16¢	$13	0x224a6a…
06-22 09:23:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:20 UTC	Down	SELL	49	70¢	$34	0x892669…
06-22 09:23:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	49	37¢	$18	0xd86c82…
06-22 09:21:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	122	32¢	$39	0xf6319e…
06-22 09:19:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0xdd4fa7…
06-22 09:14:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7bdc4f…
06-22 09:14:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xb93dc6…
06-22 09:13:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	286	9¢	$25	0x320788…
06-22 07:14:40	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	800	31¢	$248	0x3b0872…
06-22 07:03:07	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0x3638c6…
06-21 18:23:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	5¢	$7	0x927476…
06-21 18:22:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	5¢	$5	0x0a9d1c…
06-21 18:22:04	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	5¢	$8	0xbdb018…
06-21 18:21:26	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0x6dff4c…
06-21 18:19:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	129	12¢	$15	0x725e55…
06-21 18:14:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:10 UTC	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xfd8045…
06-21 18:13:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:10 UTC	Down	BUY	54	28¢	$15	0x5182d5…
06-21 18:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x64c8f4…
06-21 18:08:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0xf6b7b1…
06-21 18:07:01	cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21 game3	Team Falcons	SELL	77	99¢	$76	0xa9515d…
06-21 17:30:04	cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21 game3	Team Falcons	BUY	77	57¢	$44	0x34760e…
06-21 17:28:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xc70b09…
06-21 17:23:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xbd48f1…
06-21 17:22:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xaae2d3…
06-21 17:22:19	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	200	34¢	$68	0x75b18f…
06-20 08:36:32	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	212	29¢	$61	0x627cee…
06-20 08:14:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 08:10 UTC	Up	BUY	85	46¢	$39	0xea68b3…
06-20 08:12:13	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	36	25¢	$9	0xee036f…
06-20 08:11:25	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	41	22¢	$9	0x7bd446…
06-20 08:10:32	bitcoin up or down june 20 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	96	24¢	$23	0xf24f0f…
06-19 23:11:14	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	661	26¢	$169	0xfad93b…
06-19 23:10:23	cs2 vit fal2 2026 06 19	Team Falcons	SELL	264	99¢	$261	0x81f4a2…
06-19 21:56:35	cs2 vit fal2 2026 06 19	Team Falcons	BUY	153	38¢	$58	0x8295ca…
06-19 21:56:19	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	250	25¢	$62	0x7e22d0…
06-19 21:53:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0x9f823c…
06-19 21:51:05	cs2 vit fal2 2026 06 19	Team Falcons	BUY	111	36¢	$40	0xbdbfb9…
06-19 21:50:40	cs2 vit fal2 2026 06 19 game2	Vitality	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x789422…
06-19 21:38:31	cs2 vit fal2 2026 06 19 game2	Vitality	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xdba300…
06-19 21:30:14	cs2 vit fal2 2026 06 19 game2	Team Falcons	BUY	250	16¢	$40	0x16664a…
06-19 21:23:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x4b59b9…
06-19 21:15:25	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	SELL	351	25¢	$88	0xfbf67a…
06-19 18:34:11	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	770	27¢	$207	0xe643c1…
06-19 16:17:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	363	3¢	$12	0xf94357…
06-19 16:16:43	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	Yes	BUY	581	27¢	$157	0x759bd0…
06-19 15:00:26	cs2 ts7 g2 2026 06 19	G2	BUY	377	44¢	$166	0xf62b5a…
06-19 14:58:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x8076f9…
06-19 14:57:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xa251c0…
06-19 14:55:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0x64e165…
06-19 14:55:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	79	19¢	$15	0x55d080…