Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

54.1%

Resolved

105

Trades

112

lifetime

Volume

$112

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-09-10

last 11-04 16:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

90% 56% +$19

Politics

6% 43% -$1

Tech

4% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No		+1	$1	68¢	$1	$0	11-04 16:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	10-26 04:49
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	No	-$1	10-07 14:28
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	09-12 00:08
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	09-10 08:02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	-$1	09-11 00:03
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	09-10 16:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$1	3	+3	No	-$1	09-11 08:54
Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	1	$1	4	+4	No	+$3	10-20 10:04
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	1	$1	2	+2	No	-$1	10-14 12:34
Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	1	$1	3	+3	Yes	+$2	10-06 05:54
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	10-29 03:24
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-10 11:09
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-06 21:57
meta up or down on september 17 2026	1	$1	2	+2	Up	-$1	09-16 23:16
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?	1	$1	2	+2	Up	-$1	10-01 16:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-25 08:49
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	10-22 02:39
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-26 12:56
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	2	+2	No	-$1	11-01 19:39
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	10-25 00:45
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	11-02 23:44
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$1	4	+4	Yes	+$3	10-21 18:28
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-22 20:33
will ukraine target moscow on september 26 2026	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	-$1	09-23 10:40
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	1	$1	3	+3	No	-$1	10-24 14:17
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	1	$1	2	+2	No	-$1	10-13 08:22
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	10-27 18:46
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	1	$1	5	+5	No	-$1	10-04 10:47
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	-$1	10-09 17:46
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	1	$1	3	+3	open	—	11-03 15:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 16:23:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xfd8402…
11-04 08:02:15	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6a86d9…
11-04 00:01:21	Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe8baea…
11-03 23:54:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4d792b…
11-03 15:47:22	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5b6902…
11-03 07:44:31	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 3?	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6a2a20…
11-02 23:44:28	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x32247b…
11-02 03:44:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6d59f5…
11-01 19:39:27	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x62b4b2…
11-01 00:47:12	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x355125…
10-30 18:18:30	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x3e226a…
10-30 09:38:09	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5ff85b…
10-30 01:11:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3308ab…
10-29 03:24:04	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb5e363…
10-27 18:46:02	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xee3181…
10-26 22:34:39	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x7da115…
10-26 12:56:53	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xab9144…
10-26 04:49:15	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x572540…
10-25 08:49:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x30dcfa…
10-25 00:45:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5c1997…
10-24 23:10:44	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc9c694…
10-24 14:17:06	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x154e99…
10-24 05:37:02	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf8031a…
10-23 21:02:05	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5c1364…
10-23 12:53:44	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x873593…
10-23 04:52:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x454d65…
10-22 20:33:32	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc9ee25…
10-22 12:22:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb83ecf…
10-22 02:41:15	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x05d512…
10-22 02:39:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xddbf44…
10-21 18:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9fd3f6…
10-21 10:25:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2d3d5d…
10-21 02:22:50	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4346fc…
10-20 18:13:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xbe9aa3…
10-20 10:04:27	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6c4e57…
10-20 02:04:21	Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x511ce4…
10-18 06:03:17	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x64f57f…
10-18 04:02:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6e4d98…
10-17 20:00:35	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xe69467…
10-17 11:50:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x62c4a5…
10-17 02:40:08	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xfb878f…
10-16 14:37:54	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x323274…
10-16 06:32:39	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x174a0c…
10-15 22:31:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc0bf87…
10-15 14:27:02	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x667426…
10-15 05:01:38	will the tesla roadster fly for 1s	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0020b4…
10-14 21:01:24	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdc6a42…
10-14 12:34:00	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x7b6def…
10-14 04:33:16	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf15feb…
10-13 08:22:59	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6f5e2c…
10-13 00:22:33	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x89f040…
10-12 16:22:09	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa24a83…
10-12 08:21:52	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x88b59c…
10-10 11:09:15	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc76b40…
10-10 01:57:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xbd51f3…
10-09 17:46:38	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd62f18…
10-09 09:25:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x25b7c1…
10-09 00:00:47	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $66 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8133ae…
10-08 15:56:05	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xae923d…
10-08 06:35:04	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xfafb05…
10-07 22:29:23	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa0bde9…
10-07 14:28:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x4267e9…
10-07 14:23:50	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb1a91b…
10-07 05:57:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x534b03…
10-06 21:57:09	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x197301…
10-06 13:56:37	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x6834c7…
10-06 05:54:27	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xac24d5…
10-05 21:54:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2e934a…
10-05 00:35:46	will coin dip to 177 50 by october 5 2026	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe70560…
10-04 10:47:02	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc73826…
10-03 23:26:10	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0cbebb…
10-03 13:49:29	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa059a3…
10-03 01:11:45	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x713ac7…
10-02 03:14:18	spy up or down on october 2 2026	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc9b912…
10-01 16:18:57	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x64e04f…
10-01 08:18:33	will xagusd dip to 59 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc2888d…
09-30 23:39:29	Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe7e86c…
09-30 15:32:41	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb1f586…
09-30 06:47:21	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8d7bf4…
09-29 22:47:17	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xe021e8…
09-27 01:32:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xde9b03…
09-26 04:50:12	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcf6e02…
09-24 19:09:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xffe5cb…
09-24 10:50:20	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xed35aa…
09-24 02:50:04	will aapl reach 340 by september 21 2026 from september 23	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x260a69…
09-23 18:41:20	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3a5bce…
09-23 10:40:52	will ukraine target moscow on september 26 2026	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x7beb76…
09-23 02:38:05	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x40b8c2…
09-22 18:37:48	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc40927…
09-22 10:37:16	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xceb127…
09-22 02:36:06	will meta reach 760 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x7e6886…
09-22 02:35:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xc7c3f9…
09-19 17:00:59	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe4edfe…
09-18 20:41:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb5c374…
09-18 11:24:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7ee7cf…
09-18 08:38:37	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf60ce9…
09-18 00:26:49	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf759d9…
09-17 16:16:25	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2959f3…
09-17 08:13:22	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x94c546…
09-16 23:16:06	meta up or down on september 17 2026	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x24e33c…