Trusting-Surface — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.24K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.1%

Resolved

1,546

Trades

8,790

lifetime

Volume

$310.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-17

last 10-09 20:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 65% -$3,179

Other

14% 56% +$350

Sports

0% 0% -$409

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 729 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 14:40 UTC	12	$2.9K	1,890	1,890	+0	Down	+$346	09-29 14:44
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	29	$2.3K	1,811	1,717	+94	Yes	+$11	05-24 19:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 16:50 UTC	17	$2.2K	1,515	1,515	+0	Down	+$56	09-30 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	13	$2.2K	1,459	1,459	+0	Down	-$66	09-28 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	14	$2.1K	1,108	1,108	-0	Up	+$28	10-04 20:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 16:35 UTC	9	$2.1K	1,370	905	+466	Down	+$18	09-30 16:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:45 UTC	11	$2.0K	1,536	1,280	+256	Up	-$29	09-29 15:48
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?	127	$2.0K	1,397	1,397	+0	Yes	+$137	07-21 19:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:10 UTC	10	$1.9K	1,200	1,200	+0	Down	+$164	09-29 15:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 18:00 UTC	13	$1.9K	1,534	1,147	+387	Down	-$58	09-30 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 19:20 UTC	13	$1.9K	1,288	1,288	-0	Down	+$24	09-30 19:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 08:30 UTC	8	$1.7K	954	940	+13	Down	+$15	09-29 08:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 16:55 UTC	8	$1.7K	1,199	1,049	+150	Down	+$14	09-30 17:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 14:25 UTC	7	$1.6K	850	850	+0	Up	+$35	09-29 14:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:25 UTC	16	$1.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	Down	-$89	09-29 15:29
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?	59	$1.6K	885	885	+0	Yes	+$26	07-23 19:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	12	$1.6K	823	823	+0	Up	-$18	10-04 20:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 07:30 UTC	11	$1.5K	1,165	689	+476	Up	-$18	09-29 07:33
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2?	162	$1.5K	1,635	1,451	+184	Yes	-$235	08-02 19:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	7	$1.5K	1,149	676	+473	Up	+$52	09-28 19:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 17:15 UTC	8	$1.5K	1,131	600	+531	Down	+$9	09-28 17:18
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 31?	100	$1.5K	875	875	+0	Yes	+$34	07-31 22:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	21	$1.5K	1,043	1,043	+0	Down	-$58	09-28 19:34
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	10	$1.4K	720	720	+0	Yes	+$34	07-02 20:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	6	$1.4K	812	812	+0	Up	-$48	09-28 19:13
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?	172	$1.4K	1,710	1,710	+0	No	-$59	07-22 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 17:00 UTC	10	$1.3K	982	982	+0	Down	-$115	09-30 17:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 09:35 UTC	7	$1.3K	850	850	+0	Up	+$35	09-29 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	19	$1.3K	1,599	1,171	+428	Up	-$388	10-01 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	7	$1.3K	726	726	+0	Down	+$5	09-28 13:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-09 20:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	94¢	$3	0x1cbd81…
10-09 20:54:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x25e171…
10-09 20:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x14527a…
10-09 20:19:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf83423…
10-09 20:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x28e3ac…
10-09 19:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x4c6452…
10-09 19:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xeaf574…
10-09 19:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xe7bcbc…
10-09 19:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xf71add…
10-09 19:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xee1e17…
10-09 16:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe0252e…
10-09 16:47:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xfe52da…
10-09 16:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x12b698…
10-09 16:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x628afb…
10-09 13:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7b863c…
10-09 13:11:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xeb510c…
10-09 13:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x90a933…
10-09 13:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x669c82…
10-09 13:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x0f74dc…
10-09 13:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x454a35…
10-08 10:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa5e6e8…
10-08 10:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	37	86¢	$32	0x847a51…
10-08 10:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0x4f3b25…
10-08 10:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x37bbc8…
10-08 10:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xd64060…
10-08 10:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0xc5bbc8…
10-08 10:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0xd56d18…
10-08 10:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x162ff7…
10-08 10:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0xa7f714…
10-08 10:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x3b3d15…
10-08 10:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x3493b5…
10-08 10:24:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0x4c2443…
10-08 10:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x7c6da5…
10-08 10:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0xb901db…
10-08 10:23:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x3a5c4f…
10-08 10:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xd7c860…
10-08 10:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0xbb7f22…
10-08 10:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0x99061a…
10-08 10:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x9ce909…
10-08 10:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x13b8bd…
10-08 10:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x9f8045…
10-08 10:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x8043bd…
10-08 10:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x98f6f9…
10-08 10:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x6ae296…
10-08 10:22:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	8	32¢	$3	0x7936ae…
10-08 10:21:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xcfa9bd…
10-08 10:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0xb16096…
10-08 10:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0x73daa4…
10-08 10:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0xdd386e…
10-08 10:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0xcc3d9b…
10-08 10:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x9b6422…
10-08 10:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x12ce24…
10-08 10:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0x528f1d…
10-08 10:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0x9f8b8e…
10-08 10:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x97949a…
10-08 10:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x7d6005…
10-08 10:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0xcf5896…
10-08 10:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x149b07…
10-08 10:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0xa916fa…
10-08 10:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x34454c…
10-08 10:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x29135d…
10-08 10:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x4b7a77…
10-08 10:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x0816af…
10-08 10:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xd9d79c…
10-08 09:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xa75796…
10-08 09:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x1d211f…
10-08 09:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x0ad2d7…
10-08 09:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x57b93d…
10-08 09:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x5bb8bf…
10-08 09:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x5bf7a9…
10-08 09:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x36d913…
10-08 09:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x468fad…
10-08 09:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xc4ba82…
10-08 09:47:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd23e43…
10-08 09:47:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x86aff4…
10-08 09:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x834bfc…
10-08 09:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x9abff3…
10-08 09:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x87c8f7…
10-08 09:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0x32d3a9…
10-08 09:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xf17045…
10-08 09:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xdf6ccc…
10-08 09:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xa63b94…
10-08 09:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x0d02b7…
10-08 09:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x47237e…
10-08 09:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x845c85…
10-08 09:26:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x5b742d…
10-08 09:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x81d2b5…
10-08 09:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x8aee7e…
10-08 09:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0344bf…
10-08 09:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x314845…
10-08 09:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xf3c1b7…
10-08 09:13:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0x01728a…
10-08 09:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xf7a348…
10-08 09:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x3f6da2…
10-08 09:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x575119…
10-08 09:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x786348…
10-08 09:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x1167e0…
10-08 09:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x1aff76…
10-08 09:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0x6dd7d9…
10-08 09:07:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x038aad…