Watery-Scenario — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15.9K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$92.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.30K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 06-19 11:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

37% 0% -$21,738

Politics

32% 83% -$2,757

Other

31% 100% +$8,603

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-19).

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$26.3K	32,038	32,038	+0	No	-$13,719	06-01 12:45
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$18.3K	25,865	0	+25,865	Yes	+$7,606	04-10 19:47
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	1	$12.9K	13,917	0	+13,917	No	+$974	02-10 20:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	8	$8.0K	25,746	0	+25,746	Yes	-$8,020	05-19 08:07
us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	1	$6.1K	6,200	0	+6,200	No	+$53	01-21 14:27
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$6.1K	13,773	0	+13,773	Yes	-$6,129	06-19 11:04
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	4	$3.9K	5,441	0	+5,441	No	+$1,534	04-08 20:47
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	5	$3.1K	3,180	0	+3,180	No	+$82	01-21 14:35
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	3	$2.2K	2,261	40	+2,221	No	+$134	01-22 11:12
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	5	$1.9K	2,628	0	+2,628	Yes	+$695	04-08 20:48
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$1.8K	2,653	0	+2,653	No	+$810	04-01 12:06
ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by january 31	1	$1.3K	1,342	0	+1,342	No	+$86	01-22 00:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 11:04:59	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	6,843	45¢	$3,079	0x77db13…
06-18 08:56:43	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	6,930	44¢	$3,049	0xcc8f52…
06-01 12:45:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32,038	20¢	$6,296	0x1e45f6…
05-19 08:07:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x75600e…
05-19 08:06:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,707	64¢	$1,732	0x30c3a5…
05-19 08:06:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,285	33¢	$1,399	0x7fab4c…
05-19 08:06:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,505	32¢	$802	0xc039a3…
05-19 08:05:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8,571	32¢	$2,720	0x3a570b…
05-19 08:05:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,407	31¢	$1,049	0x7977cd…
05-19 08:05:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13,587	63¢	$8,560	0x283202…
05-19 08:04:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0x828d15…
05-19 08:03:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,508	30¢	$744	0x05a22b…
05-19 08:03:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11,820	62¢	$7,328	0xab534f…
05-19 08:03:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,454	29¢	$1,301	0x59c629…
05-19 08:03:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,924	61¢	$2,394	0x0e5da7…
04-10 19:47:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1,870	71¢	$1,328	0x5c2553…
04-10 19:45:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	18,758	71¢	$13,318	0x8c0183…
04-08 20:48:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	5,236	69¢	$3,613	0xf42cca…
04-08 20:48:19	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xce57fc…
04-08 20:48:07	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	144	74¢	$107	0xe8ea23…
04-08 20:47:57	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	101	74¢	$75	0xd5bba4…
04-08 20:47:51	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	60	74¢	$44	0x2a23f2…
04-08 20:47:47	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	101	74¢	$75	0x5b7e17…
04-08 20:47:27	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	2,242	73¢	$1,647	0x98150f…
04-08 20:47:21	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	2,043	74¢	$1,510	0xa55da1…
04-08 20:47:11	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	513	73¢	$375	0xa9a449…
04-01 12:06:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	1,206	70¢	$844	0xa6a7fd…
04-01 12:06:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	1,446	69¢	$998	0x6f54e6…
04-01 12:06:03	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	2,825	70¢	$1,977	0xee1fcc…
02-10 20:01:13	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	13,917	93¢	$12,943	0x020ac8…
01-22 11:12:22	Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	BUY	231	93¢	$216	0x26d67c…
01-22 00:57:28	ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by january 31	No	BUY	1,342	94¢	$1,257	0xa11243…
01-21 14:35:18	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x96bab1…
01-21 14:33:26	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	168	97¢	$164	0xf589d2…
01-21 14:32:18	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	600	97¢	$585	0x34c39b…
01-21 14:31:38	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	168	97¢	$164	0x8af036…
01-21 14:31:26	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	2,230	97¢	$2,172	0xf3abd8…
01-21 14:27:38	us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	No	BUY	6,200	99¢	$6,147	0xe5cadf…
01-21 14:22:30	Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0x7979bc…
01-21 14:21:52	Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	BUY	2,030	94¢	$1,908	0xef5ffb…