Fickle-Transmission — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$7.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$113

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 05-24 15:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 100% +$1

Politics

23% — —

Other

7% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$250	126	126	+0	open	—	05-12 05:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	2	$250	125	125	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 00:56
bitcoin above 64k on april 20	2	$246	123	123	+0	open	—	04-20 13:09
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	2	$246	123	123	+0	open	—	05-19 14:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	2	$246	123	123	+0	open	—	05-23 14:39
bitcoin above 64k on april 13	2	$245	123	123	+0	open	—	04-13 01:27
bitcoin above 62k on march 27	2	$243	122	122	+0	open	—	03-27 14:44
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	2	$209	105	105	+0	open	—	03-15 23:47
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$207	104	104	+0	open	—	03-14 09:10
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$205	102	102	+0	open	—	02-27 23:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$205	107	107	+0	open	—	02-28 23:54
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	2	$204	102	104	-2	open	—	02-27 04:11
will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	3	$200	101	101	+0	open	—	02-25 08:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	1	$125	125	0	+125	Yes	+$0	05-11 01:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?	1	$125	125	0	+125	Yes	+$0	05-05 06:24
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	1	$124	125	0	+125	open	—	04-30 14:33
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28?	1	$124	124	0	+124	open	—	04-27 12:57
bitcoin above 70k on april 24	1	$124	124	0	+124	open	—	04-23 15:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25?	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	05-24 15:41
dota2 xtreme sar1 2026 04 20	1	$123	124	0	+124	open	—	04-20 13:11
bitcoin above 66k on april 17	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	04-16 04:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	05-19 14:48
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	04-14 04:44
bitcoin above 66k on april 13	1	$123	123	0	+123	open	—	04-13 13:14
bitcoin above 62k on april 11	1	$122	122	0	+122	open	—	04-10 03:26
bitcoin above 60k on april 8	1	$122	122	0	+122	open	—	04-07 23:45
bitcoin above 60k on april 7	1	$122	122	0	+122	open	—	04-06 07:50
bitcoin above 62k on april 1	1	$122	122	0	+122	open	—	04-01 04:55
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$122	122	0	+122	open	—	03-31 05:00
bitcoin above 60k on march 30	1	$122	122	0	+122	open	—	03-30 05:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-24 15:41:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x47ae67…
05-23 14:39:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x080eca…
05-23 02:07:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	123	99¢	$123	0x2fd7bd…
05-19 14:48:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x117b1c…
05-19 14:10:17	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0xf72a4b…
05-19 13:29:37	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xa6b0e2…
05-12 05:23:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0x79adf3…
05-12 05:05:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	126	99¢	$125	0x428d9b…
05-11 01:41:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xa66f74…
05-08 00:56:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	Yes	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0x21e54c…
05-07 00:37:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x3c2211…
05-05 06:24:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x1ee8b7…
04-30 14:33:28	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$124	0x636da2…
04-27 12:57:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x6a5746…
04-23 15:51:16	bitcoin above 70k on april 24	Yes	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x584462…
04-20 13:11:16	dota2 xtreme sar1 2026 04 20	South America Rejects	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0x457e57…
04-20 13:09:10	bitcoin above 64k on april 20	Yes	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0xa3aa95…
04-18 06:41:20	bitcoin above 64k on april 20	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xab6320…
04-16 04:46:30	bitcoin above 66k on april 17	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x2d3691…
04-14 04:44:37	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x7dc0de…
04-13 13:14:51	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x92f15b…
04-13 01:27:43	bitcoin above 64k on april 13	Yes	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x71161e…
04-11 23:44:45	bitcoin above 64k on april 13	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$122	0x36079d…
04-10 03:26:57	bitcoin above 62k on april 11	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x1f553c…
04-07 23:45:01	bitcoin above 60k on april 8	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0xd50248…
04-06 07:50:25	bitcoin above 60k on april 7	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0xfe1a08…
04-01 04:55:51	bitcoin above 62k on april 1	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x9b55fe…
03-31 05:00:05	Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x74c591…
03-30 05:07:02	bitcoin above 60k on march 30	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0xa531d6…
03-28 16:15:49	bitcoin above 58k on march 29	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0xdd5c73…
03-27 14:44:09	bitcoin above 62k on march 27	Yes	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0x1b0c40…
03-27 13:11:45	bitcoin above 62k on march 27	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x1696d1…
03-26 13:17:13	bitcoin above 66k on march 26	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$121	0x0f641d…
03-24 11:10:09	bitcoin above 64k on march 25	Yes	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x909d7c…
03-21 07:19:45	bitcoin above 62k on march 22	Yes	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xe5ba6c…
03-20 18:24:39	cbb liub arz 2026 03 20	Arizona Wildcats	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xe116fa…
03-20 04:14:01	cbb kenest gnzg 2026 03 19	Gonzaga Bulldogs	BUY	121	100¢	$120	0x5218ac…
03-19 00:52:13	cbb geows utahv 2026 03 18	George Washington Revolutionaries	BUY	120	92¢	$111	0xa2ca69…
03-18 03:24:19	nhl sj edm 2026 03 17	Oilers	BUY	111	96¢	$106	0xa0ae2e…
03-16 02:16:15	bitcoin above 66k on march 17	Yes	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0xdcf94e…
03-15 23:47:23	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x8c86c5…
03-14 09:11:33	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0xdfa3ad…
03-14 09:10:31	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0x434d6e…
03-12 14:09:27	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	104	98¢	$102	0x6a3552…
03-10 05:15:43	bitcoin above 84k on march 11	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xb1aa70…
03-09 05:25:17	ethereum above 1600 on march 9	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xe4fbd3…
03-07 12:04:15	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x2c33a8…
03-06 03:51:33	Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x805d55…
03-04 01:35:33	bitcoin above 56k on march 5	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x0167d9…
03-02 14:16:29	bitcoin above 54k on march 3	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x1a1cf3…
03-02 02:12:35	will bitcoin dip to 60k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xf39da4…
02-28 23:54:41	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	107	95¢	$102	0x092d46…
02-28 22:38:45	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	107	96¢	$103	0x35ac6f…
02-28 03:32:37	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x0b57b1…
02-27 23:31:57	Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x513d5f…
02-27 10:33:17	Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x559a6b…
02-27 04:11:16	us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x171f8b…
02-26 10:29:54	us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	No	SELL	104	98¢	$102	0x5b9136…
02-25 09:42:18	will the us next strike iran on february 25 2026 et	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0x45e6bc…
02-25 08:52:10	will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x314adb…
02-25 08:51:24	will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x5db12d…
02-24 05:36:52	will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	No	BUY	101	98¢	$99	0x5fc95b…