Nutty-Observation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$139

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.8%

Resolved

Trades

124

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$111

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 05-28 07:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 100% +$0

Other

34% 50% $-139

Politics

6% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	4	$530	266	266	+0	open	—	04-26 12:50
Will Czechia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$275	138	138	+0	open	—	04-25 05:54
Will United Kingdom win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$275	138	138	+0	open	—	04-25 06:12
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$275	138	138	+0	open	—	04-26 12:21
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$273	139	139	+0	open	—	05-26 12:03
will fred couples win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$272	136	136	+0	open	—	03-24 09:28
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	2	$272	136	136	+0	open	—	03-20 08:20
will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$272	136	136	+0	open	—	03-24 09:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	2	$266	133	133	+0	open	—	04-21 10:11
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$265	133	133	+0	open	—	04-19 09:27
Will Chrissy Hofbeck win Survivor Season 50?	2	$265	133	133	+0	open	—	04-14 08:51
Will Quintavius "Q" Burdette win Survivor Season 50?	2	$264	132	132	+0	open	—	04-14 09:08
will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	2	$261	131	131	+0	open	—	03-25 10:47
will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	2	$261	131	131	+0	open	—	03-25 11:11
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$255	128	128	+0	open	—	04-05 04:12
Will Paula Badosa win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$249	125	125	+0	open	—	04-23 04:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	1	$145	145	0	+145	open	—	05-20 12:24
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	1	$145	145	0	+145	open	—	05-19 12:26
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	1	$144	144	0	+144	open	—	05-17 06:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$144	144	0	+144	open	—	05-15 10:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?	1	$142	142	0	+142	Yes	+$0	05-12 07:22
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 13?	1	$141	163	0	+163	Yes	$-141	05-12 19:51
Will Solana dip to $70 May 4-10?	1	$141	141	0	+141	No	+$0	05-10 04:37
will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on april 10	1	$140	140	0	+140	open	—	04-10 11:56
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 3?	1	$140	140	0	+140	open	—	05-03 05:41
ethereum above 2400 on april 9	1	$140	140	0	+140	open	—	04-09 04:21
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of April 27 2026?	1	$140	140	0	+140	open	—	05-01 07:26
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?	1	$140	140	0	+140	open	—	04-30 06:03
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$139	140	0	+140	open	—	04-28 05:43
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	1	$139	139	0	+139	open	—	04-27 08:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-28 07:22:22	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$98	0x86efca…
05-28 06:53:16	Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini	Arthur Rinderknech	BUY	14	52¢	$7	0xe5e63a…
05-27 12:38:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27?	No	BUY	119	100¢	$119	0x33cccd…
05-26 12:08:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0xe92078…
05-26 12:03:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	139	96¢	$134	0xdb4869…
05-25 11:16:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0xa29f40…
05-24 12:40:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0xddce90…
05-23 12:45:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0xc6f79f…
05-22 03:57:15	Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of May 18 above $235?	Yes	BUY	139	100¢	$138	0x39f282…
05-21 07:28:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x811150…
05-21 07:21:08	Cervia: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Tommaso Compagnucci	Enrico Dalla Valle	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xda8c6c…
05-20 12:24:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x5afcf1…
05-19 12:26:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x9cfc22…
05-17 06:49:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0x38efdb…
05-15 10:25:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0x27a2c6…
05-14 02:48:38	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	78	100¢	$78	0x98e967…
05-14 02:48:24	Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 14?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x4e4648…
05-12 19:51:21	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 13?	No	BUY	163	87¢	$141	0x1a086f…
05-12 07:22:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0x0d7828…
05-10 04:37:56	Will Solana dip to $70 May 4-10?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0x09db60…
05-09 05:34:58	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x137f7d…
05-09 05:30:22	Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks	Guangdong Southern Tigers	BUY	14	41¢	$6	0xb9e6ab…
05-08 04:08:15	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0xcc837b…
05-07 03:47:32	Istanbul: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Laura Pigossi	Linda Fruhvirtova	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x8ddcc4…
05-03 05:41:22	Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 3?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x4e9338…
05-01 07:26:44	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xdb8735…
04-30 06:03:50	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x43134e…
04-28 05:43:10	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$139	0xdf3caf…
04-27 08:22:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0x0bf14f…
04-26 12:53:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$129	0x89e96f…
04-26 12:50:56	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$129	0xb93b70…
04-26 12:25:50	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$129	0x9ca5af…
04-26 12:24:40	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	Karmine Corp	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xcbfabd…
04-26 12:21:22	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	138	100¢	$137	0xce2e9a…
04-26 12:03:38	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x6835d8…
04-25 06:17:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	138	100¢	$137	0x4a1e80…
04-25 06:12:52	Will United Kingdom win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	138	100¢	$137	0x0e219c…
04-25 05:55:42	Will United Kingdom win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0xb38ae1…
04-25 05:54:30	Will Czechia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	138	99¢	$138	0x788c9e…
04-25 05:38:36	Will Czechia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0xa0bf9d…
04-25 05:35:10	Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	Alexander Bublik	BUY	9	62¢	$5	0x2101ae…
04-24 06:16:30	ethereum above 2600 on april 24	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xc83ab4…
04-24 05:39:02	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	BetBoom Team	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x0ae310…
04-23 04:05:08	ethereum above 2000 on april 23	Yes	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x719e03…
04-23 04:00:04	Will Paula Badosa win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$124	0x0aed8c…
04-23 03:44:34	Will Paula Badosa win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$124	0x3fc13a…
04-23 03:40:06	Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Gael Monfils	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	BUY	14	61¢	$9	0xabb6a8…
04-22 12:11:16	ethereum above 2200 on april 22	Yes	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x163072…
04-21 10:16:06	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x8e4a0d…
04-21 10:11:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	No	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0x6304f6…
04-21 09:55:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xa07709…
04-20 04:15:26	will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on april 20	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xc63a7a…
04-19 09:30:24	bitcoin above 78k on april 19	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x2b93c3…
04-19 09:27:02	Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0x06463a…
04-19 09:05:12	Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xdf6100…
04-16 04:31:50	bitcoin above 80k on april 16	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xfca1e9…
04-15 09:03:36	bitcoin above 70k on april 15	Yes	BUY	133	100¢	$132	0xec9886…
04-14 09:10:39	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on april 14	No	BUY	132	100¢	$132	0x5f2971…
04-14 09:08:45	Will Quintavius "Q" Burdette win Survivor Season 50?	No	SELL	132	100¢	$132	0x3f27fa…
04-14 08:52:49	Will Quintavius "Q" Burdette win Survivor Season 50?	No	BUY	132	100¢	$132	0x926496…
04-14 08:51:03	Will Chrissy Hofbeck win Survivor Season 50?	No	SELL	133	100¢	$132	0x841e6e…
04-14 08:31:29	Will Chrissy Hofbeck win Survivor Season 50?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$132	0x18a4e0…
04-14 08:27:39	atp navone rublev 2026 04 13	Mariano Navone	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x3ff5f6…
04-13 07:29:35	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	136	100¢	$135	0xf81487…
04-12 11:57:17	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on april 12	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x055b33…
04-11 11:32:29	bitcoin above 70k on april 11	Yes	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0x5cc3de…
04-11 10:03:07	nhl tb bos 2026 04 11	Bruins	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x25d117…
04-10 11:56:47	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on april 10	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x2a1227…
04-09 04:21:49	ethereum above 2400 on april 9	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xcfd99e…
04-08 08:59:05	will the price of ethereum be between 2500 2600 on april 8	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xeb2673…
04-08 08:19:59	atp batalla izquier 2026 04 08	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xf334bd…
04-07 11:15:43	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on april 7	No	BUY	123	100¢	$122	0xc248a1…
04-07 10:08:01	nba mil bkn 2026 04 07	Nets	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x8e72e6…
04-05 04:19:13	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 5	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x8aba6a…
04-05 04:12:31	Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	128	100¢	$127	0xdb2292…
04-05 03:56:03	Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$127	0xc6d8f7…
04-04 12:51:57	bitcoin above 66k on april 4	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x98aa6d…
04-02 12:41:29	will the price of ethereum be between 2200 2300 on april 2	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x98d8d5…
04-01 10:41:37	will solana dip to 65 on april 1	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x454325…
03-31 09:22:01	will solana dip to 60 in march 2026	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0xf45872…
03-31 08:39:55	lol gal sly 2026 03 31	Galions	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xa85548…
03-30 14:43:59	ethereum above 2200 on march 30	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0xf73eea…
03-29 07:23:14	will bitcoin reach 76k march 23 29	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x5666cd…
03-29 06:32:48	cbb uconn duke 2026 03 29	Duke Blue Devils	BUY	8	67¢	$6	0xae8ef7…
03-28 11:06:37	will the price of ethereum be less than 1700 on march 28	No	BUY	128	100¢	$127	0xd48a54…
03-28 10:35:27	mlb ari lad 2026 03 28	Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	8	32¢	$2	0xe1c418…
03-28 01:46:21	will bitcoin dip to 63k on march 27	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x706b5c…
03-27 04:37:41	donald trump of truth social posts march 20 march 27 180 199	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x2e6496…
03-27 03:47:37	cs2 pain bhe 2026 03 27	Bounty Hunters Esports	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x00675a…
03-26 12:52:59	ethereum above 1900 on march 26	Yes	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x9bd524…
03-25 11:16:41	bitcoin above 68k on march 25	Yes	BUY	131	100¢	$130	0x00a42f…
03-25 11:11:17	will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	No	SELL	131	100¢	$130	0x7ab554…
03-25 10:48:33	will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x0c55c1…
03-25 10:47:21	will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	No	SELL	131	100¢	$131	0x5b7fef…
03-25 10:31:33	will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x1148f9…
03-25 10:26:21	cehl kar lib 2026 03 25	Karlovy Vary	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xee0c10…
03-24 10:05:23	ethereum above 2400 on march 24	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0xfa5374…
03-24 09:48:17	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	136	100¢	$136	0x24436a…
03-24 09:29:35	will byeong hun an win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0x2e018e…
03-24 09:28:19	will fred couples win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	136	100¢	$136	0xbc4dec…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	67	$89.8K	1,647	05-28 11:04
Reasonable-Mover 0x0f62…922e	45	$2.08K	45	05-28 11:46
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	44	$2.94K	2,617	04-22 10:51
Intelligent-Length 0xdb5a…3965	40	$183.0K	1,633	05-28 09:51
Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf	40	$722	292	05-28 09:01
Squiggly-Signal 0x6364…8316	38	$3.45K	391	05-28 14:03
Incomparable-Outrage 0x3085…7568	37	$1.38K	830	05-09 13:42
(anonymous) 0x2f69…acb6	37	$1.35K	1,074	04-27 11:33