Harmless-Rawhide — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$797

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

59.3%

Resolved

7,809

Trades

21,265

lifetime

Volume

$41.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$89

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 10-26 20:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 163 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 51% -$389

Other

38% 42% -$375

Sports

3% 57% -$55

Politics

1% 52% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	+43	$30	70¢	$30	+$0	10-21 18:00
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	+34	$20	62¢	$21	+$1	10-01 17:31
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	+11	$5	90¢	$10	+$5	10-08 15:36
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	+10	$5	96¢	$9	+$4	10-08 12:07
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	No	+9	$5	98¢	$9	+$4	10-07 01:59
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+8	$5	66¢	$5	+$0	10-25 18:01
will wti reach 105 in october 2026	No	+6	$5	63¢	$4	-$1	10-15 01:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 11?	6	$125	69	69	+0	Yes	+$11	08-11 15:16
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 27?	2	$109	154	154	+0	No	+$29	08-27 04:36
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 1?	2	$102	160	160	+0	No	+$22	08-31 01:56
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$100	66	66	+0	No	+$30	10-04 21:38
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on September 1?	2	$95	154	154	+0	No	+$15	08-31 01:56
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 30?	2	$91	143	143	+0	No	+$11	08-29 14:24
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 31?	2	$91	171	171	+0	No	+$11	08-30 01:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-07 07:15 UTC	25	$88	171	171	+0	Up	+$58	06-07 07:19
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 2?	2	$87	133	133	+0	No	+$7	08-31 21:19
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 31?	2	$83	154	154	+0	No	+$3	08-30 03:31
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 31?	2	$83	148	148	+0	No	+$3	08-30 06:40
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 29?	2	$81	155	154	+2	No	+$8	08-28 12:13
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 28?	2	$77	154	154	+0	No	-$3	08-27 12:42
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on September 2?	3	$74	155	155	+0	No	-$6	08-31 21:22
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$74	45	45	+0	No	+$14	10-25 23:51
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 28?	2	$73	167	167	+0	No	-$7	08-27 22:15
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 28?	2	$71	137	137	+0	Yes	+$5	08-27 09:54
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 26?	2	$68	174	174	+0	No	-$12	08-25 10:04
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 2?	3	$65	133	133	+0	No	-$15	08-31 21:22
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	2	$65	58	58	+0	Yes	-$5	10-04 20:32
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 31?	2	$63	131	131	+0	No	+$0	08-30 15:40
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 4?	3	$62	59	59	+0	Yes	+$56	07-04 06:40
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 28?	2	$59	138	138	+0	No	-$21	08-27 14:02
mlb sea nyy 2026 08 11	2	$56	36	36	+0	New York Yankees	+$16	08-12 02:13
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 1?	2	$56	171	171	+0	No	-$24	08-30 17:24
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 24?	2	$55	74	74	+0	Yes	+$15	08-23 10:03
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 25?	2	$55	87	87	+0	Yes	+$15	08-24 07:24
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 30?	2	$53	160	160	+0	No	-$27	08-29 10:26
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 28?	4	$53	158	158	+0	No	-$27	08-27 14:38
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 1?	2	$53	112	112	+0	No	-$1	08-31 01:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 20:35:27	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x9feb15…
10-26 20:34:39	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xbbbc65…
10-26 17:20:35	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x02982b…
10-25 23:51:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x22de8f…
10-25 22:35:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x99b8e2…
10-25 21:19:11	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x47c646…
10-25 18:01:05	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x9d386a…
10-25 02:52:20	Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 247.5	Under	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x632ef3…
10-25 01:10:05	Pelicans vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5	Under	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x92d7d5…
10-24 19:13:14	Spread: Rams (-2.5)	Rams	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xba8721…
10-24 19:02:33	Rams vs. Raiders: O/U 48.5	Under	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xa803a9…
10-24 18:58:06	Spread: Lions (-3.5)	Lions	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x4c0ac7…
10-24 18:57:06	Spread: Vikings (-6.5)	Colts	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xbba64e…
10-24 18:53:38	Spread: Jets (-4.5)	Dolphins	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xcb0951…
10-24 18:53:33	Spread: Panthers (-2.5)	Buccaneers	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xbdb989…
10-24 18:52:44	Spread: Panthers (-3.5)	Buccaneers	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x5aa9f4…
10-24 16:03:23	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x510319…
10-24 12:31:21	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x9e406d…
10-24 00:52:12	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb35e59…
10-23 23:42:14	Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 249.5	Under	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0xb24a6a…
10-23 22:00:38	Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5	Under	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0xed6f14…
10-23 21:58:17	Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5	Under	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x89157c…
10-23 21:18:15	Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 246.5	Under	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x259461…
10-23 20:09:38	Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5	Under	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xcad6b2…
10-23 19:03:47	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x469b10…
10-23 17:36:47	Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5	Under	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x9b846d…
10-23 01:56:53	Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5	Under	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xb8c58f…
10-23 01:56:00	Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5	Under	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x09ecc3…
10-23 00:31:14	Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5	Under	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x1a4bb7…
10-22 22:23:35	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	No	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x375cdc…
10-22 21:33:21	Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5	Under	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x7616ac…
10-22 21:32:32	Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5	Under	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x1f9272…
10-22 20:01:17	Will Trump say "Meat" or "Steak" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xc401ee…
10-22 19:30:05	will trump say million or billion or trillion 15 times during his midterm rally in iowa	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xad19da…
10-22 09:53:09	Will Trump say "Meat" or "Steak" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xc32b32…
10-22 02:53:32	Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 238.5	Under	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xead367…
10-22 02:45:24	Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5	Under	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x22b0ce…
10-22 02:41:21	Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5	Under	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x610bb4…
10-22 02:41:20	Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5	Under	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x771072…
10-21 18:11:06	Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5	Under	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xe1569a…
10-21 18:00:51	Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5	Under	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x6b110d…
10-21 18:00:09	Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5	Under	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x710c8e…
10-21 18:00:00	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x8e4a2f…
10-21 17:56:59	Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 235.5	Over	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xd3b649…
10-21 17:56:15	Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 224.5	Over	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xa898f5…
10-21 01:30:00	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5	Under	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x8b5190…
10-20 19:17:57	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xb40d33…
10-20 18:58:53	Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5	Over	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x2aadaf…
10-20 18:58:50	Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5	Over	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xcead6d…
10-20 17:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 21?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xb7dc91…
10-20 06:44:53	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xc5b260…
10-20 03:01:33	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x3da73c…
10-19 23:11:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 20?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xf82426…
10-19 14:11:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x97c56d…
10-19 13:53:32	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 19?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd35078…
10-18 17:11:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 20?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x871a2b…
10-17 19:11:41	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 19?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa40a11…
10-17 07:12:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 19?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x71a5f8…
10-17 06:05:38	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 17?	Yes	SELL	22	11¢	$2	0x73432d…
10-17 06:02:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 17?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xfc2e0d…
10-16 21:07:53	Will Trump say "Laken Riley Act" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0xb8411f…
10-16 20:44:15	Will Trump say "Laken Riley Act" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xdd68b8…
10-16 17:07:36	Will Trump say "University" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x30ffd9…
10-16 17:06:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 17?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x83bda6…
10-16 17:04:10	Will Trump say "Pee-wee" or "Peewee" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xaf98e6…
10-16 17:02:01	Will Warsh say "Payroll" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x598469…
10-16 11:51:03	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xf3386b…
10-16 03:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xd0efd8…
10-15 23:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x2c8388…
10-15 08:23:32	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x31fb3f…
10-15 01:58:20	will wti reach 105 in october 2026	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc48a7a…
10-14 17:16:48	will trump say job during his midterm rally in montana october 14	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x6bec8e…
10-14 17:15:15	will trump say rural during his midterm rally in montana october 14	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x139b7c…
10-14 17:15:10	will trump say tariff during his midterm rally in montana october 14	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x98ba69…
10-14 16:14:19	will trump say si during his midterm rally in montana october 14	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xb19405…
10-14 14:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x3b7377…
10-14 12:34:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 12:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xdb1dbf…
10-14 04:05:43	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0xcfd5c7…
10-13 23:50:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 23:50 UTC	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x31ca45…
10-13 15:37:26	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x56a039…
10-13 09:50:01	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	23	24¢	$5	0x0b8f9d…
10-13 07:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x79796e…
10-13 02:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x0ea191…
10-13 01:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x1449b3…
10-12 14:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xd11259…
10-12 07:05:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x86b389…
10-11 06:34:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x194e74…
10-11 02:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xcdd120…
10-10 13:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xc28de0…
10-10 06:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x27162e…
10-10 04:13:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 11?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x97b6ca…
10-10 04:06:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xada633…
10-09 22:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x0eb90c…
10-09 21:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd50f8d…
10-09 10:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0x765bfc…
10-09 08:39:25	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x4155e2…
10-09 07:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x55f5b0…
10-09 05:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 10?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x715ac1…
10-09 01:43:47	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x768bdb…
10-08 16:58:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x6aff6c…