Incomparable-Laborer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.74K

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

69.3%

Resolved

678

Trades

1,023

lifetime

Volume

$18.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$26

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-24 00:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Other

58% 65% -$1,214

Politics

30% 61% -$607

Sports

8% 76% +$48

Crypto

2% 62% +$11

Tech

1% 85% +$37

Pop-Culture

1% 50% -$11

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-24).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	-13	-$12	100¢	$-13	-$1	05-24 01:01
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	+11	$10	99¢	$10	+$0	07-23 22:39
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+91	$10	4¢	$3	-$7	05-16 03:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will google gemini 3 score at least 50 on the frontiermath benchmark	6	$1.4K	971	971	+0	No	+$24	01-29 20:16
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	6	$1.1K	1,237	927	+309	No	-$378	01-20 16:35
andrew tate posts february 17 february 24 0 99	16	$399	814	503	+311	No	-$316	02-24 01:12
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	3	$349	563	563	+0	No	-$51	01-07 05:54
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	4	$312	196	131	+65	No	+$8	02-14 01:57
tsla close above 400 on february 2 2026	2	$308	160	160	+0	Yes	+$8	02-02 20:49
will googl close below 315 week february 6 2026	7	$306	167	166	+1	No	+$1	02-06 08:58
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	5	$286	175	149	+26	No	+$2	02-18 23:25
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	2	$236	227	227	+0	Yes	+$9	01-12 22:38
will aapl reach 280 in january	1	$229	235	0	+235	No	+$6	01-30 05:37
will germany win the mens ice hockey silver medal at the 2026 winter olympics	1	$213	0	214	-214	No	$0	02-18 17:28
will xai have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$201	103	103	+0	No	+$1	02-24 06:41
will sweden win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	3	$199	80	125	-45	No	+$6	02-18 23:23
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$197	126	126	+0	Yes	+$22	04-05 15:56
will mrbeast hit 480 million subscribers by march 31 385 949 751 549 325 327 411 863 793	4	$194	99	99	+0	No	+$4	03-25 02:39
will mrbeast hit 475 million subscribers by march 31 387 656 755 785	9	$175	103	103	+0	No	+$20	03-22 18:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$174	147	133	+15	No	+$10	05-07 22:56
will the total number of tsa passengers for february 2 be between 2300000 and 2400000	3	$162	156	13	+143	No	+$5	02-02 17:37
pfe quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 03 2026 0pt57	4	$160	109	85	+24	Yes	-$4	02-02 20:40
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	4	$132	86	86	+0	No	+$34	05-31 01:27
will the romantic debut week album sales be at least 400k	4	$114	123	16	+108	No	+$22	02-17 08:00
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$114	64	64	+0	Yes	+$14	02-21 19:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$111	135	0	+135	Yes	-$111	02-19 00:20
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 25 in february	2	$109	131	0	+131	Yes	-$109	02-15 04:22
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	5	$106	79	79	+0	Yes	-$8	03-28 22:10
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$105	8,384	51	+8,333	No	-$17	04-28 20:28
will pln win the second most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	2	$103	53	53	+0	Yes	+$3	02-02 20:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	3	$103	74	74	+0	Yes	+$13	05-25 01:33
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$101	51	51	+0	Yes	+$1	03-04 18:16
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$1	03-04 18:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 00:50:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa5900d…
07-24 00:49:18	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by august 31 20260720003950635	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xd7097c…
07-24 00:48:22	Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x33710a…
07-23 22:39:55	Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x7c5b0a…
07-23 22:39:28	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xc351bb…
07-14 20:34:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf31a68…
07-14 20:33:52	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xe74b2d…
06-14 16:45:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	81¢	$11	0xe4b1b3…
06-14 16:44:39	OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x009595…
06-14 05:54:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xf3f223…
06-14 05:53:03	Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x45446a…
06-13 04:01:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xb072c1…
06-13 04:00:24	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xd25c9b…
06-13 00:28:13	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x1228ea…
06-11 18:12:36	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xa28c1c…
06-11 18:11:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x6e2c2b…
06-11 04:45:27	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xa98cb5…
06-11 04:44:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x6aa51d…
06-11 04:42:57	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x63a99d…
06-11 04:42:39	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x47ebf0…
06-09 22:03:28	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0x0ed7b4…
06-08 03:59:43	Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xfc595e…
06-08 03:59:33	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xf1bdf3…
06-08 03:58:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x90e2ef…
06-08 03:57:48	us announces cuba oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xdae0b9…
06-08 03:56:55	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x0a3745…
06-01 14:09:43	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x911e3c…
06-01 14:08:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x1c3f93…
06-01 14:08:46	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x9ef23b…
06-01 14:06:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	39¢	$10	0xf91dc2…
05-31 05:38:53	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x463320…
05-31 01:27:02	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	86	97¢	$83	0x1a54b6…
05-30 02:37:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xf941de…
05-30 02:36:55	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xd6a05a…
05-30 02:31:54	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x213d88…
05-30 02:31:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x1477f0…
05-25 17:03:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2,509	1¢	$30	0xb84a80…
05-25 16:59:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	909	1¢	$10	0x485bed…
05-25 16:57:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	455	1¢	$5	0x126090…
05-25 16:56:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0xb8aab6…
05-25 01:42:19	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x496065…
05-25 01:33:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	78¢	$58	0x88d7bc…
05-25 01:28:59	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0x7cc9b2…
05-24 01:03:11	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x6beb13…
05-24 01:01:49	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x5b8c8e…
05-24 00:29:44	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Hurricanes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x88fcf2…
05-23 23:23:21	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Hurricanes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xc85406…
05-23 22:19:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x03a999…
05-23 22:18:18	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x21c9bd…
05-23 22:18:03	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	47	32¢	$15	0x564b67…
05-23 22:15:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0xc90672…
05-23 02:00:48	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?	Yes	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x0b9d24…
05-23 01:59:42	OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x21d413…
05-23 01:57:43	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x037781…
05-23 01:56:24	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x609789…
05-23 01:56:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	27	95¢	$25	0x886045…
05-23 01:55:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x51ce3c…
05-23 01:54:18	Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7c317f…
05-23 01:52:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xca62fa…
05-23 01:52:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x2ccc30…
05-21 05:38:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x4f5a64…
05-19 19:42:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	65¢	$29	0x87bfbe…
05-18 19:59:32	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x17cae1…
05-18 19:59:13	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	SELL	23	24¢	$5	0xf23b43…
05-18 01:14:19	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0xa57a4e…
05-18 01:13:23	Will MrBeast hit 123 billion views by May 31?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x889f7a…
05-17 03:53:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x8b65fe…
05-17 03:52:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xbf066b…
05-17 03:51:23	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x5581a4…
05-16 17:28:48	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x3468e3…
05-16 17:28:30	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb4865a…
05-16 17:27:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x2c90dd…
05-16 03:08:26	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x74aa11…
05-15 02:44:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x917c7d…
05-15 02:44:29	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xf0fae9…
05-15 02:43:24	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x198b85…
05-14 03:00:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x18c252…
05-14 02:59:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$2	0x1f6711…
05-14 02:58:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	375	4¢	$15	0xc9672b…
05-12 18:27:25	Will MrBeast hit 123.5 billion views by May 31?	No	SELL	15	9¢	$1	0x7678b8…
05-11 16:06:51	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x33349d…
05-11 16:04:11	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x3a4b83…
05-11 16:02:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xf32e6f…
05-11 16:02:18	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x956555…
05-10 01:34:04	Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x7c5fd5…
05-09 18:25:21	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xc25e57…
05-09 18:22:56	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xc1abc3…
05-09 02:10:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xd32a45…
05-09 02:09:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xe7b021…
05-08 19:13:45	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	83	23¢	$19	0xd5c601…
05-08 19:12:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	45¢	$24	0x76533c…
05-08 18:26:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x261529…
05-08 15:58:27	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	291	3¢	$10	0x119470…
05-08 15:57:09	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0x081f7f…
05-08 15:41:04	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	488	1¢	$5	0x54b6c5…
05-08 15:27:59	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	237	2¢	$4	0x6efe28…
05-08 15:26:21	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x114141…
05-08 15:26:08	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	603	2¢	$10	0xc7813f…
05-07 22:56:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x8ba7d0…
05-07 22:55:41	Will MrBeast hit 122.5 billion views by May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x88ef71…