Taut-Ribbon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.2%

Resolved

Trades

460

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 08-02 01:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

38% 0% $-1

Sports

27% 42% $-7

Politics

24% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	40	$218	218	226	-8	open	—	07-05 15:13
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	7	$53	51	51	+0	open	—	06-09 01:33
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	6	$45	58	58	+0	open	—	06-18 02:55
Celtics vs. 76ers	6	$35	21	21	+0	open	—	04-25 02:02
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$35	26	26	+0	open	—	03-20 16:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	2	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	03-20 16:13
will the us invade iran by march 31	3	$27	127	127	+0	open	—	03-29 19:35
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	5	$21	18	18	+0	open	—	07-04 14:21
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	3	$19	89	89	+0	open	—	04-23 00:12
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$18	100	100	+0	open	—	03-27 05:51
nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	5	$18	39	24	+15	open	—	06-04 01:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	13	$17	51	59	-8	open	—	08-02 00:59
btc updown 5m 1773210900	4	$17	39	0	+39	open	—	03-11 06:36
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	2	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	03-27 05:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	3	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	06-27 01:55
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds	3	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	04-25 00:11
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	4	$15	28	14	+14	open	—	06-06 02:04
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	7	$14	99	66	+32	open	—	06-30 22:28
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$14	72	0	+72	open	—	03-26 04:06
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	3	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	04-25 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	9	$13	51	15	+36	open	—	05-26 03:24
nba nyk atl 2026 04 23	8	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 01:51
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$13	200	0	+200	open	—	03-27 06:42
btc updown 5m 1773213000	2	$11	19	0	+19	open	—	03-11 07:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$11	17	17	+0	open	—	05-09 01:03
Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?	1	$10	265	0	+265	open	—	03-26 03:43
btc updown 5m 1774497900	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	03-26 04:07
Lakers vs. Rockets	6	$10	11	6	+5	open	—	04-25 03:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	6	$10	12	12	+0	open	—	06-14 02:01
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	5	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	06-29 23:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 01:00:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	23	6¢	$1	0xacc0c1…
08-02 01:00:20	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0xd03c0d…
08-02 00:59:53	mlb det oak 2026 08 01	Detroit Tigers	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xfe4e6e…
08-02 00:59:50	mlb det oak 2026 08 01 k framber valdez 3pt5	Over	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x15706d…
08-02 00:59:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x05d145…
08-02 00:59:41	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	Yes	SELL	28	2¢	$1	0x8f3717…
08-02 00:52:20	mlb mil laa 2026 08 01	Milwaukee Brewers	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x4c8b5b…
08-02 00:52:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xa59ea1…
08-02 00:52:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xdd01a0…
08-02 00:51:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0xea2ff6…
08-02 00:50:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0xf31f0a…
08-02 00:50:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x39ec8f…
08-02 00:50:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xf6a01e…
08-02 00:49:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0x090371…
08-01 23:06:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x9714a3…
08-01 22:31:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x96fe4a…
08-01 16:59:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xcee008…
08-01 16:15:36	mlb det oak 2026 08 01 k framber valdez 3pt5	Over	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x02fae8…
08-01 16:15:15	mlb det oak 2026 08 01	Detroit Tigers	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x882772…
08-01 16:15:11	mlb mil laa 2026 08 01	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1911bd…
08-01 16:13:00	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x1985f2…
08-01 16:12:18	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xd3f232…
08-01 15:51:42	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xcc50d2…
08-01 15:50:56	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7bf789…
08-01 03:08:09	mlb det oak 2026 07 31	Detroit Tigers	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0xaf5ea7…
08-01 02:51:17	mlb mil laa 2026 07 31	Milwaukee Brewers	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x5f6733…
08-01 01:51:09	mlb mil laa 2026 07 31	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe0b5f9…
08-01 01:37:17	mlb det oak 2026 07 31 total 10pt5	Over	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x55f307…
08-01 01:36:47	mlb det oak 2026 07 31	Detroit Tigers	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xac2f8b…
08-01 01:34:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x018ca8…
07-31 00:13:45	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xe888c3…
07-31 00:11:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x8c149c…
07-30 22:09:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb50289…
07-30 22:07:27	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x975fb1…
07-27 21:32:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6a3bde…
07-27 21:32:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x010101…
07-27 21:30:34	mlb bal det 2026 07 27	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x468254…
07-27 21:30:06	mlb bal det 2026 07 27	Detroit Tigers	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4ef850…
07-27 21:29:55	mlb mil sf 2026 07 27	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc33480…
07-07 01:22:19	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x3df3f4…
07-07 01:00:58	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by december 31	Yes	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0x7c106a…
07-07 00:59:10	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x05ffb9…
07-07 00:57:19	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x6f0f1d…
07-06 18:53:19	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x837d9a…
07-06 17:59:50	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xfa6090…
07-06 17:10:50	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd4e722…
07-06 16:51:40	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb57382…
07-06 11:45:44	world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf63ddd…
07-06 02:34:23	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf38424…
07-05 22:43:14	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x2e085f…
07-05 22:40:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x7293ef…
07-05 22:40:14	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Nothing	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x710851…
07-05 22:40:11	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x8a9fc8…
07-05 19:29:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xbd98b2…
07-05 19:28:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0x8a6dcb…
07-05 19:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xde7446…
07-05 15:13:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	19	15¢	$3	0xc024ec…
07-05 15:13:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x30e514…
07-05 15:13:10	iran successfully targets shipping on july 4 20260625225210245	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x1597c1…
07-05 15:12:53	will colombia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149750	Yes	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x0fcae3…
07-05 15:12:43	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0xfcef97…
07-05 15:10:35	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0xc831a8…
07-04 14:21:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x99b6d8…
07-04 14:21:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xc215f8…
07-04 14:21:13	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0x2e526e…
07-04 10:51:50	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x15b260…
07-04 10:49:25	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4fa6e6…
07-04 10:48:46	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd86585…
07-04 10:48:31	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x09b5e4…
07-04 10:44:58	will usa reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134479	Yes	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xa2dcae…
07-04 10:39:19	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Nothing	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xae8856…
07-04 10:33:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x9b5c74…
07-04 00:21:23	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Cabo Verde	SELL	5	29¢	$2	0x4674df…
07-03 23:55:58	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Cabo Verde	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x52412a…
07-03 12:27:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x37a6b4…
07-02 04:48:29	will colombia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149750	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xb66c9d…
07-02 04:43:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb40348…
07-02 04:16:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x579eb1…
07-02 04:16:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x99d1f5…
07-02 04:16:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xfe26dd…
07-02 04:01:44	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	Yes	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0x957902…
07-01 20:30:23	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xfe22ce…
07-01 20:29:35	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc1e74c…
07-01 17:50:44	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	DR Congo	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0xdf5853…
07-01 17:07:05	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xeeb9b6…
07-01 16:33:32	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	DR Congo	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf21381…
07-01 14:56:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x55b010…
07-01 13:59:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x26aff0…
06-30 23:35:26	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team to advance	Ecuador	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x5a5b72…
06-30 23:34:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xaf3f58…
06-30 22:28:19	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0xb8bff7…
06-30 21:29:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x12b132…
06-30 20:07:19	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x0294bc…
06-30 19:51:41	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x7beb9c…
06-30 11:06:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x990a53…
06-29 23:24:47	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x3c7b2f…
06-29 23:23:38	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x5999d1…
06-29 23:22:59	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x624287…
06-29 23:22:35	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf3e752…
06-29 22:15:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0x2a952b…