Thorny-Surge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

83.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,155

lifetime

Volume

$58.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 06-21 10:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

42% 0% $-63

Politics

38% 100% +$41

Crypto

14% — —

Sports

7% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+9	$8	100¢	$9	+$1	06-21 10:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	10	$17.7K	21,324	21,324	+0	open	—	02-28 06:53
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	7	$6.5K	3,788	3,743	+45	open	—	01-31 07:34
will xqc beat forsens minecraft speedrun record by january 31	4	$4.7K	2,678	2,122	+556	open	—	01-27 04:36
lol hle1 gen 2026 02 01 game1	3	$2.0K	1,960	41	+1,919	open	—	02-01 08:44
lol hle1 bro2 2026 04 01 game2	4	$1.9K	1,011	1,011	+0	open	—	04-01 09:27
lol blg jdg 2026 03 08 game1	9	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-08 09:55
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	4	$1.3K	1,560	551	+1,009	open	—	04-26 03:10
Knicks vs. Hawks	3	$1.2K	1,058	1,058	+0	open	—	04-30 07:28
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	3	$782	500	500	+0	open	—	02-06 06:40
bitcoin up or down february 5 8pm et	30	$750	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	02-06 01:46
bitcoin up or down february 7 11pm et	29	$747	1,089	1,089	+0	open	—	02-08 04:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	51	$708	1,004	0	+1,004	open	—	04-18 06:31
will the state of the union be 110 minutes or longer	3	$556	1,029	0	+1,029	open	—	02-25 03:52
lol sen dig 2026 02 01 game1	1	$500	520	0	+520	open	—	01-31 23:39
will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by march 31	2	$459	312	312	+0	open	—	03-05 02:11
bitcoin up or down february 9 1am et	141	$453	2,390	2,390	+0	open	—	02-09 06:42
Oilers vs. Ducks	1	$412	503	0	+503	open	—	04-27 04:08
bitcoin up or down february 8 8pm et	26	$397	690	620	+70	open	—	02-09 01:42
bitcoin up or down february 5 2am et	17	$392	1,000	450	+550	open	—	02-05 07:53
will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by february 14	7	$384	412	0	+412	open	—	02-03 10:11
bitcoin up or down february 8 10pm et	21	$336	500	500	+0	open	—	02-09 03:33
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$331	0	333	-333	open	—	06-01 22:09
will there be at least 1200 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 152 495 466 979 817	7	$324	1,675	1,675	+0	open	—	02-20 21:36
lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19	5	$312	200	200	+0	open	—	04-19 10:27
bitcoin up or down february 5 11pm et	59	$304	1,110	1,100	+10	open	—	02-06 04:46
bitcoin up or down february 9 10pm et	51	$302	725	725	+0	open	—	02-10 03:20
lol tes we 2026 02 10 game2 kill over 50pt5	1	$299	300	0	+300	open	—	02-09 08:31
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	8	$253	145	145	+0	open	—	02-21 08:00
will bill or hillary clinton be held in contempt of congress by feb 28	7	$246	150	150	+0	open	—	02-04 05:31
bitcoin up or down february 5 6pm et	18	$245	768	305	+463	open	—	02-05 23:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 10:15:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x1fdcbe…
06-01 22:09:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	333	99¢	$331	0xf7c371…
06-01 02:07:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf6ad67…
05-24 09:39:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x6f7239…
05-21 06:54:37	Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xc425a2…
05-21 06:35:38	Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	49	93¢	$46	0x8a87e2…
05-21 04:27:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xddb118…
05-19 02:05:54	Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xb3891e…
05-16 09:43:11	LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Gen.G	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x39d0cd…
05-16 09:34:15	LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Gen.G	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xbf9b2c…
05-14 10:37:12	Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x230de2…
05-12 01:21:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x43e2ae…
05-09 08:01:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x38b83a…
05-08 00:43:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x93b865…
05-05 19:44:52	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	82	63¢	$52	0xc306d9…
05-05 13:43:28	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	63¢	$11	0x1ee1de…
05-03 06:02:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x1de5b7…
05-01 05:08:20	Pistons vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	164	39¢	$64	0xc797df…
05-01 04:32:06	Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	298	48¢	$143	0x393bad…
04-30 07:28:56	Knicks vs. Hawks	Knicks	SELL	1,058	55¢	$582	0xd59961…
04-30 07:23:58	Knicks vs. Hawks	Knicks	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xfa8882…
04-30 07:23:16	Knicks vs. Hawks	Knicks	BUY	1,013	56¢	$567	0x737bb6…
04-30 07:18:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x0c44e5…
04-30 07:16:20	Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc387e0…
04-29 09:46:12	Aix en Provence: Clement Chidekh vs Rinky Hijikata	Rinky Hijikata	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x14d989…
04-29 07:20:10	Shymkent 2: Mathys Erhard vs Andrej Nedic	Andrej Nedic	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xa7c84b…
04-27 04:08:08	Oilers vs. Ducks	Oilers	BUY	503	82¢	$412	0xe631cd…
04-26 09:26:56	Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff	Coco Gauff	BUY	300	68¢	$204	0x2d7042…
04-26 03:10:18	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	SELL	391	2¢	$8	0xd8c399…
04-26 03:01:58	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	SELL	60	11¢	$7	0x490514…
04-26 03:00:26	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xee9fa4…
04-26 02:13:06	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	New York Yankees	SELL	91	100¢	$91	0xab57c0…
04-26 02:01:06	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	BUY	1,560	80¢	$1,248	0xb3cb85…
04-26 01:32:50	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	New York Yankees	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xce7f6d…
04-26 01:32:48	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	New York Yankees	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xf79385…
04-26 01:32:46	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	New York Yankees	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xc8da41…
04-26 01:32:46	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	New York Yankees	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x049c84…
04-26 01:32:18	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7b1241…
04-25 10:22:42	Oeiras 4: Polina Kudermetova vs Whitney Osuigwe	Polina Kudermetova	BUY	39	59¢	$23	0xfe827a…
04-25 10:22:42	Oeiras 4: Polina Kudermetova vs Whitney Osuigwe	Polina Kudermetova	BUY	61	59¢	$36	0x9fdf71…
04-25 10:19:54	Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann	Francisco Cerundolo	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xb13f19…
04-25 10:19:48	Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann	Francisco Cerundolo	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xc911f4…
04-25 10:19:48	Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann	Francisco Cerundolo	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x6cf09b…
04-25 10:19:48	Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann	Francisco Cerundolo	BUY	31	87¢	$27	0x24e9db…
04-25 09:15:40	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xa3d67b…
04-25 04:20:14	Oilers vs. Ducks	Ducks	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0x637e1e…
04-25 02:58:04	Golden Knights vs. Utah	Utah	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9f4488…
04-25 02:13:58	Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x84b7d6…
04-25 02:10:16	Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x11db94…
04-25 01:43:44	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5d92e5…
04-25 01:37:54	Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xcf3afe…
04-25 01:16:52	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x89295d…
04-25 01:16:52	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x62f762…
04-24 09:51:58	Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin	Sofia Kenin	BUY	36	51¢	$18	0x26cf9a…
04-24 09:51:56	Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin	Sofia Kenin	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x4a1b07…
04-24 09:37:34	Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Damir Dzumhur	Tallon Griekspoor	BUY	101	82¢	$82	0x5a75b9…
04-24 09:30:44	Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti	Lorenzo Musetti	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xe2742e…
04-24 09:02:42	Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Antoine Ghibaudo	Timofey Skatov	BUY	97	88¢	$86	0xaa20cd…
04-24 09:02:12	Shymkent: Timofey Skatov vs Antoine Ghibaudo	Timofey Skatov	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x5b6cf3…
04-24 08:39:12	lol fox1 kt 2026 04 24 game1	KT Rolster	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0xa6a98f…
04-24 08:32:48	lol fox1 kt 2026 04 24 game1	KT Rolster	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xa77f38…
04-24 08:29:20	lol fox1 kt 2026 04 24 game1	KT Rolster	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xb6c097…
04-24 03:23:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x1278c0…
04-24 03:13:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xebfbb2…
04-24 03:07:16	nhl col lak 2026 04 23	Avalanche	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0xbfd7b3…
04-24 03:07:14	nhl col lak 2026 04 23	Avalanche	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x9c2f2e…
04-24 03:07:12	nhl col lak 2026 04 23	Avalanche	BUY	39	75¢	$29	0x34f41e…
04-24 03:04:32	nba den min 2026 04 23	Timberwolves	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xcf5135…
04-24 00:03:06	Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets	New York Mets	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xadf460…
04-23 23:58:14	New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x4ebcd9…
04-23 23:58:14	New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x2f47ca…
04-23 23:58:10	New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xef89e8…
04-23 23:58:08	New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xc0f4a3…
04-23 23:52:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xe8d38c…
04-23 10:37:04	Madrid Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Jaqueline Cristian	Yulia Starodubtseva	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x6f2589…
04-23 06:19:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xf76c5d…
04-22 09:22:10	Madrid Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Carlota Martinez Cirez	Zeynep Sonmez	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x7dfde6…
04-22 09:17:44	lol kt drx 2026 04 22 game2	KT Rolster	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xa432c1…
04-22 09:17:22	lol kt drx 2026 04 22 game2	KT Rolster	BUY	96	95¢	$91	0x361efe…
04-22 09:02:36	Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x403d89…
04-22 01:31:16	Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x1c4301…
04-21 10:23:42	Madrid Open: Petra Marcinko vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva	Petra Marcinko	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x14405e…
04-21 08:32:08	highest temperature in seoul on april 21 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x62404b…
04-21 08:31:56	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x8fbb54…
04-21 08:26:22	Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $50M and $55M at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x7a7be0…
04-21 08:06:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of April 20 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xf52835…
04-20 00:33:18	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x44734b…
04-20 00:20:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xcdab77…
04-20 00:17:02	lol dig tl2 2026 04 19	Team Liquid	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xfa03a6…
04-20 00:16:56	lol dig tl2 2026 04 19	Team Liquid	BUY	14	98¢	$13	0x8840e3…
04-19 10:27:22	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19	Nongshim Red Force	SELL	153	95¢	$145	0x4a484b…
04-19 10:27:22	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19	Nongshim Red Force	SELL	47	95¢	$45	0x16debd…
04-19 10:23:02	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xea30f7…
04-19 10:12:14	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	98	66¢	$65	0x5cde65…
04-19 10:11:52	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x3b7af1…
04-19 09:44:10	btc updown 5m 1776591600	Down	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x3cffdb…
04-19 09:41:32	btc updown 5m 1776591600	Down	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0xae636f…
04-19 09:35:36	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19 game2	HANJIN BRION	SELL	400	2¢	$8	0x3c8dca…
04-19 09:32:26	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19 game2	HANJIN BRION	BUY	103	15¢	$15	0x9e9ee0…
04-19 09:26:46	lol bro2 ns 2026 04 19 game2	HANJIN BRION	BUY	102	23¢	$24	0xff69ef…