Variable-Curd — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

Trades

602

lifetime

Volume

$2.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 06-07 23:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 65% +$13

Sports

10% 40% +$0

Other

3% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1776194100	1	$41	70	0	+70	open	—	04-14 19:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	3	$40	59	0	+59	open	—	04-25 20:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	3	$35	23	23	+0	Down	+$9	05-06 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	3	$35	26	25	+1	open	—	04-26 07:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	3	$32	28	26	+3	open	—	05-15 06:47
btc updown 5m 1776563100	1	$30	48	0	+48	open	—	04-19 01:46
2026 rbc heritage winner matt fitzpatrick win	5	$30	57	0	+57	open	—	04-19 20:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$25	43	0	+43	open	—	04-26 07:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	3	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	05-15 06:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	2	$23	16	16	+0	open	—	04-26 07:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$21	14	14	+0	open	—	04-25 09:58
btc updown 5m 1777054800	1	$20	36	0	+36	open	—	04-24 18:20
btc updown 5m 1776913200	1	$20	56	0	+56	open	—	04-23 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	1	$20	35	0	+35	open	—	04-25 08:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	3	$20	28	0	+28	Up	+$8	05-07 08:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	3	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	05-15 06:04
btc updown 5m 1776725400	4	$17	16	13	+3	open	—	04-20 22:51
btc updown 5m 1776897300	3	$16	29	0	+29	open	—	04-22 22:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	1	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	04-25 09:40
btc updown 5m 1776191400	2	$15	28	0	+28	open	—	04-14 18:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$15	34	0	+34	open	—	04-25 20:07
btc updown 5m 1776720900	2	$15	29	0	+29	open	—	04-20 21:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	2	$15	23	0	+23	open	—	04-26 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	2	$15	26	0	+26	open	—	05-16 09:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	3	$15	33	0	+33	open	—	04-28 15:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	3	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 08:43
btc updown 5m 1777055100	2	$15	14	13	+1	open	—	04-24 18:27
btc updown 15m 1776495600	4	$15	12	11	+0	open	—	04-18 07:08
Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?	3	$15	30	14	+15	open	—	04-18 21:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	3	$14	25	0	+25	open	—	04-25 08:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 23:00:48	btc updown 5m 1780873200	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x1b10ac…
05-31 05:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x9448a5…
05-31 05:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x7261bc…
05-31 05:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xf729e8…
05-31 05:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x5f8a42…
05-31 05:12:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x20ec1d…
05-31 05:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x576644…
05-31 05:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x922912…
05-31 05:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x4114e5…
05-31 05:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xd5e2c3…
05-31 05:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x342224…
05-30 08:52:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe53e08…
05-30 08:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xce50ee…
05-30 08:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x61c89a…
05-30 08:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x7e1ad7…
05-30 08:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x62ab00…
05-30 08:43:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x2d6ac5…
05-30 08:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x5d7321…
05-30 08:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x5dfe43…
05-30 08:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x6f51b1…
05-30 08:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xc4d48c…
05-30 08:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x609980…
05-30 08:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xd8069d…
05-30 08:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xf54130…
05-30 08:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x6fdc76…
05-30 08:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0x667d9d…
05-30 08:28:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x2ddd1c…
05-30 08:28:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x179353…
05-30 00:12:43	Canadiens vs. Hurricanes	Canadiens	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x1b6772…
05-29 10:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xab51ee…
05-29 10:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x3f52be…
05-28 20:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xaf82b0…
05-28 20:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xcae4da…
05-28 19:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xe7402c…
05-28 19:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x19617c…
05-28 19:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x8d2e27…
05-27 11:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x379e95…
05-27 11:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd97435…
05-27 11:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb8e685…
05-27 11:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xc1d751…
05-27 11:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x1f01f9…
05-27 11:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x29f260…
05-27 11:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x388075…
05-27 11:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x727df3…
05-27 11:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x1cfa22…
05-27 11:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x824c0e…
05-27 11:17:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x2b7761…
05-27 11:16:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1e4412…
05-27 11:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa957b6…
05-27 11:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xfbe80c…
05-27 11:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x5980b4…
05-27 11:05:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xc6bfe6…
05-27 11:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x806808…
05-27 06:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x21ff7c…
05-27 05:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x345b71…
05-27 05:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x82e740…
05-27 05:30:11	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0x4cb79a…
05-27 01:57:35	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x40b610…
05-27 01:54:52	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xf15f8d…
05-26 14:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xed1f63…
05-26 14:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x0b368c…
05-26 14:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd71e30…
05-26 14:03:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x18e471…
05-26 14:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x694287…
05-26 14:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x7ed5c8…
05-26 06:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x3aa1ee…
05-26 06:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x1b4f29…
05-26 06:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc702d2…
05-26 04:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x65c72f…
05-26 04:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x4a6713…
05-26 04:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x2cf18c…
05-26 04:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x42a57f…
05-26 04:03:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x18b9dd…
05-26 04:03:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0xae1d83…
05-26 04:00:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x6b415c…
05-26 04:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xae470c…
05-26 03:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd337ef…
05-26 03:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x3781eb…
05-26 03:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xe21a0a…
05-26 03:54:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb643a9…
05-26 03:54:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xced4cb…
05-26 03:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x87e007…
05-26 03:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x84e5fc…
05-26 03:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xef0a69…
05-26 03:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xac14f4…
05-26 03:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x22bfbe…
05-26 03:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb6c9d6…
05-26 03:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x535bb5…
05-26 03:43:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x26954d…
05-26 03:41:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xf17b85…
05-26 03:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x04a971…
05-26 03:41:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x660545…
05-26 03:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x6a6eae…
05-26 02:08:42	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x190442…
05-25 05:35:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x090797…
05-25 05:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x859c3d…
05-24 23:43:54	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x9165fe…
05-24 23:43:21	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x4e7ce4…
05-24 23:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x69ca3a…
05-24 23:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xbb31ab…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	344	$114.8K	17,800	06-07 23:04
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	332	$107.4K	15,560	06-07 23:04
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	324	$286.9K	11,006	06-07 23:05
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	313	$85.1K	25,575	06-07 23:04
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	313	$82.6K	24,905	06-07 23:04
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	311	$614.8K	25,852	06-07 23:05
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	311	$193.7K	13,261	05-31 05:14
Alive-Supermarket 0x927f…d215	301	$68.2K	2,511	06-07 23:00