Lean-Bandolier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$184

Unrealized P&L

-$28

Hit rate

38.4%

Resolved

Trades

140

lifetime

Volume

$3.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$225

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-23

last 11-02 07:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

76% 40% +$29

Other

23% 71% +$155

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+100	$68	86¢	$86	+$18	11-02 07:55
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+100	$48	53¢	$53	+$5	09-09 05:24
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	+100	$29	34¢	$34	+$5	08-20 14:44
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+160	$42	18¢	$30	-$12	10-27 19:06
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	+100	$30	12¢	$12	-$17	08-10 10:41
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+100	$6	9¢	$9	+$3	08-15 04:40
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+100	$30	0¢	$0	-$30	10-30 17:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	45	$1.1K	10,710	1,000	+9,710	No	-$771	05-27 23:20
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$300	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$300	05-26 22:00
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	2	$176	100	100	+0	No	+$16	08-23 20:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	2	$147	100	100	+0	No	+$47	10-27 19:11
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	2	$134	100	100	+0	No	+$60	08-13 16:44
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	6	$134	100	100	+0	No	+$60	08-24 19:59
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	6	$128	350	0	+350	Yes	-$128	09-05 14:38
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	3	$127	100	100	+0	open	—	09-12 14:42
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	2	$108	150	0	+150	No	+$42	08-06 10:58
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	5	$105	1,400	0	+1,400	No	+$1,295	05-25 18:50
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	2	$102	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 19:17
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	9	$97	100	100	+0	Yes	+$37	10-28 00:15
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	2	$87	100	100	+0	open	—	08-11 22:30
israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	2	$74	40	40	+0	No	+$5	08-06 13:36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	1	$68	100	0	+100	open	—	11-02 07:55
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	2	$55	248	0	+248	Yes	-$55	07-26 07:28
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	6	$50	350	87	+263	Yes	+$2	07-31 22:22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	3	$50	256	0	+256	Yes	-$50	09-30 13:52
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	1	$48	100	0	+100	open	—	09-09 05:24
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$42	160	0	+160	open	—	10-27 19:06
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 14 2026	1	$40	50	0	+50	No	+$10	08-24 08:18
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$38	123	0	+123	No	-$38	08-17 20:11
us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	3	$37	60	0	+60	No	+$23	08-13 16:33
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	1	$30	100	0	+100	open	—	10-30 17:17
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	3	$30	100	0	+100	open	—	08-10 10:41
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	1	$29	100	0	+100	Yes	-$29	08-01 22:07
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	2	$29	100	0	+100	open	—	08-20 14:44
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	3	$22	120	0	+120	open	—	09-05 09:27
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	4	$22	500	500	+0	No	-$18	05-25 18:36
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$22	120	120	+0	open	—	10-27 21:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 07:55:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x1a57ce…
10-30 17:17:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x192c12…
10-28 00:15:15	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	45	80¢	$36	0x33647f…
10-27 21:36:11	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	120	8¢	$10	0x6104ec…
10-27 20:18:08	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	45	53¢	$24	0x21251c…
10-27 20:03:29	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0xc84152…
10-27 20:03:23	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x574157…
10-27 19:17:39	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0xdd69f0…
10-27 19:11:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x224c36…
10-27 19:06:33	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	120	10¢	$12	0x239ed9…
10-27 19:06:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	160	26¢	$42	0x518982…
09-30 13:52:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	48	19¢	$9	0x14e585…
09-30 13:41:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	108	19¢	$21	0x0183a0…
09-30 10:17:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xf9e467…
09-12 15:21:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xda8ecf…
09-12 14:42:25	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0xcc8f2a…
09-09 05:24:24	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xef4b52…
09-05 14:38:04	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x10e2f0…
09-05 09:27:43	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x82bcdc…
09-05 09:19:13	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x9420f3…
09-05 09:19:03	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x954210…
09-05 09:19:00	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	150	36¢	$54	0x6d496d…
09-05 09:18:57	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	33	36¢	$12	0xaa4457…
09-04 22:27:40	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x79d942…
09-03 06:59:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xc83a9f…
08-24 19:59:52	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	SELL	74	97¢	$71	0x66bc9c…
08-24 10:09:09	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe594dc…
08-24 09:10:37	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9d8c0e…
08-24 08:55:45	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x44360e…
08-24 08:48:36	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xa2bea6…
08-24 08:18:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 14 2026	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xc365bb…
08-23 21:38:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x64e92d…
08-23 20:59:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x479e45…
08-20 14:44:52	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	72	29¢	$21	0xa6c025…
08-17 20:11:25	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x58cb41…
08-17 18:14:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xced09f…
08-17 18:12:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x24b229…
08-17 17:53:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x2e83fd…
08-17 16:49:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	89	5¢	$4	0x982438…
08-16 10:31:01	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xa58390…
08-15 04:40:43	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	82	6¢	$5	0xa049cf…
08-14 23:34:15	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x3727e1…
08-14 21:23:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x97c606…
08-13 16:44:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xa4973f…
08-13 16:33:34	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x63445b…
08-13 15:53:22	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xfe7342…
08-13 15:52:30	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	47	62¢	$29	0x00ef26…
08-12 20:17:01	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0xe9ded0…
08-12 20:17:01	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xb72005…
08-11 22:30:36	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x0986c6…
08-11 16:30:55	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x75263a…
08-10 10:41:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xb34280…
08-10 10:41:18	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0xf64973…
08-10 09:45:51	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	23	30¢	$7	0x4bed71…
08-10 08:41:00	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	18	30¢	$5	0x910cfa…
08-10 01:05:54	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x19dac1…
08-10 00:16:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xfb6956…
08-09 20:42:12	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	18	30¢	$6	0x0f6b18…
08-09 19:15:18	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0xe0cbf1…
08-08 07:43:34	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x15eaab…
08-08 07:37:27	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	Yes	SELL	105	3¢	$3	0xf0735f…
08-06 20:26:23	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0x5f58cb…
08-06 13:37:14	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	Yes	BUY	105	4¢	$4	0xf45bfd…
08-06 13:36:00	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x80ab5d…
08-06 10:58:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x0e9dd6…
08-06 10:58:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	147	72¢	$106	0xe585d0…
08-06 10:43:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xe0c2be…
08-05 03:37:18	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by december 31	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x1412d6…
08-03 21:05:36	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x44005a…
08-02 00:05:51	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x1cb6d3…
08-01 22:07:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xfb7501…
07-31 22:22:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	87	30¢	$26	0x5c0cdc…
07-31 18:31:21	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	94	46¢	$43	0x1fa46a…
07-31 18:19:05	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x14f986…
07-31 17:16:48	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x0550e2…
07-31 07:46:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x77ccd3…
07-31 07:04:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	84	6¢	$5	0x441a6b…
07-31 06:58:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xc833aa…
07-31 06:29:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xf04d49…
07-28 19:23:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0xb215ee…
07-26 07:28:07	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	126	4¢	$5	0xa6ac0d…
07-22 21:06:48	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x7e12dc…
05-27 23:20:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	261	17¢	$44	0x172b86…
05-27 23:20:15	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	17	17¢	$3	0x5a2595…
05-27 23:20:06	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	90	17¢	$15	0xd5d823…
05-27 23:20:06	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	218	17¢	$37	0xb7f018…
05-27 23:20:06	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	280	17¢	$48	0x4a76dd…
05-27 23:19:59	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	79	17¢	$13	0xd80049…
05-27 23:19:52	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	55	17¢	$9	0x253283…
05-27 10:33:06	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	4¢	$80	0xe5f53a…
05-26 22:00:38	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x46a6aa…
05-26 21:51:15	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	248	6¢	$15	0x6eb0bc…
05-26 21:50:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	501	15¢	$75	0xd48111…
05-26 21:49:23	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	341	15¢	$51	0x3c8e31…
05-26 21:47:41	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	159	15¢	$24	0x2bce74…
05-26 21:47:03	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	284	6¢	$17	0x42c85a…
05-26 21:45:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	39	6¢	$2	0x9cb248…
05-26 17:56:12	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xfbe736…
05-26 17:54:40	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	427	6¢	$26	0xdaeb8c…
05-26 13:08:16	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	110	9¢	$10	0x71e1e8…