Insubstantial-Evidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.21K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.9%

Resolved

385

Trades

1,749

lifetime

Volume

$22.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 06-25 00:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 41% -$2,138

Other

1% 24% -$35

Politics

0% 0% -$37

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-25).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 20:30 UTC	27	$2.4K	1,342	1,339	+4	Down	+$287	01-24 20:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 20:15 UTC	28	$1.9K	1,079	1,079	+1	Up	+$247	01-24 20:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 20:00 UTC	4	$1.4K	827	821	+6	Up	+$184	01-24 20:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 20:45 UTC	8	$1.4K	1,450	10	+1,440	Down	-$1,331	01-24 20:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 19:45 UTC	22	$1.1K	843	843	+0	Down	+$165	01-24 20:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 19:30 UTC	5	$839	492	491	+0	Up	+$74	01-24 19:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 22:30 UTC	23	$810	1,057	1,040	+17	Down	-$344	01-24 22:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 19:15 UTC	2	$641	419	419	+0	Down	+$188	01-24 19:30
will the price of bitcoin be less than 88000 on january 21	3	$544	500	500	+0	Yes	+$455	01-21 19:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 00:45 UTC	16	$421	281	211	+70	Down	-$1	01-30 00:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 23:45 UTC	7	$396	289	285	+4	Down	+$35	01-30 00:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 20:00 UTC	15	$359	221	221	-0	Up	+$49	01-28 20:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 22:00 UTC	3	$337	479	10	+469	Up	+$133	01-24 22:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 21:55 UTC	4	$288	147	147	+0	Up	+$2	03-07 22:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 11:15 UTC	3	$286	819	0	+819	Up	-$286	01-24 11:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 21:40 UTC	8	$249	151	146	+5	Up	+$37	03-07 21:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 10:55 UTC	10	$246	139	139	+0	Down	+$29	02-20 11:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-25 00:00 UTC	13	$246	140	140	+0	Up	+$33	01-25 00:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 18:30 UTC	18	$244	400	0	+400	Up	-$244	01-29 18:33
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	271	$242	188,240	52,873	+135,367	No	-$136	01-31 23:52
bitcoin up or down january 25 10am et	2	$240	120	120	+0	Down	+$0	01-25 16:00
ethereum up or down january 21 4pm et	4	$218	200	200	+0	Down	+$178	01-21 22:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 21:00 UTC	13	$208	151	151	+0	Up	+$90	01-27 21:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-25 15:45 UTC	2	$204	121	121	+0	Down	+$35	01-25 15:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 21:45 UTC	2	$196	150	150	+0	Down	+$103	01-23 22:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-25 12:30 UTC	6	$174	102	102	+0	Up	+$29	01-25 12:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 23:15 UTC	6	$173	222	0	+222	Up	-$1	01-29 23:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 22:40 UTC	4	$165	210	20	+191	Down	-$127	03-07 22:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 18:45 UTC	9	$157	105	105	+0	Up	+$52	02-17 19:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-25 00:15 UTC	12	$153	207	10	+197	Down	-$144	01-25 00:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 00:46:41	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	261	1¢	$3	0x82d4cf…
06-16 17:43:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x6df658…
06-16 17:43:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Up	SELL	34	21¢	$7	0x5920a8…
06-16 17:42:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x94230e…
06-16 17:40:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0x059da2…
06-16 17:40:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0xb769f3…
06-16 17:37:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xb56e9f…
06-16 17:36:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	SELL	27	24¢	$7	0x0fea01…
06-16 17:34:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x2d155b…
06-16 17:33:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xba3c96…
06-16 17:31:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x7bf63d…
06-16 17:31:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x519778…
06-16 17:30:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xff0f5f…
06-16 17:25:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x99c0dd…
06-16 17:16:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xad65fb…
06-16 17:14:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xeac680…
06-16 17:00:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x0d980f…
06-16 17:00:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x0743b1…
06-16 16:58:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x9f0a87…
06-16 16:57:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x8ba19f…
05-20 16:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xed0694…
05-20 15:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0xbcfac6…
05-20 15:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xedf864…
05-20 15:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x7938c4…
05-20 14:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xf60316…
05-20 14:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xd94299…
05-20 14:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xfc107a…
05-20 14:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x40a873…
05-20 14:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x40eab4…
05-20 14:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x17cc6a…
05-14 03:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x5cae1a…
05-14 00:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xfeb91d…
05-14 00:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2eb2b3…
05-14 00:17:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xe02c51…
05-14 00:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x6e3881…
05-14 00:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x54d2cc…
05-14 00:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x041988…
05-13 23:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xac41fb…
05-13 23:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xe3ec3d…
05-13 23:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7ccef5…
05-13 23:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x75da90…
05-13 23:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x075b84…
05-13 23:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xa0c309…
05-13 21:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x97c06e…
05-13 21:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x3786b8…
05-13 21:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x0a3115…
05-13 21:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x9b9fea…
05-13 21:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x2d18da…
05-13 16:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xfdbdb0…
05-13 16:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x7adbc3…
05-13 16:27:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x55b4f9…
05-13 16:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xbb7485…
05-13 16:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x512867…
05-13 16:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x912736…
05-13 16:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xb777d5…
05-13 16:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0x817caf…
05-13 16:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x1c874b…
05-13 16:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x7eae44…
05-13 14:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x4ba976…
05-13 14:41:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x1f23a0…
05-13 14:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xb6aada…
05-13 14:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xdbc155…
05-13 14:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xb95225…
05-13 14:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xf259f4…
05-13 14:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x12d99b…
05-13 14:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xb12daf…
05-13 14:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xd5ca6a…
05-13 14:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x0eb5d4…
05-13 14:32:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xee30b2…
05-13 14:31:09	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	164	1¢	$2	0x36a688…
05-13 14:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x49ebe2…
05-13 14:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x5785ba…
05-13 14:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xbd11f9…
05-13 14:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x8db547…
05-13 14:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xa6f5b3…
05-13 14:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xb593ea…
05-13 14:20:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x476935…
05-13 14:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	49	11¢	$5	0xc03355…
05-13 14:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x334f2b…
05-13 14:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xe91d86…
05-13 14:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x27f3c8…
05-13 14:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x9680ca…
05-13 14:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x129206…
05-13 14:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	25	22¢	$6	0x920e82…
05-13 14:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x0e99d7…
05-13 14:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0xfc2608…
05-13 14:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x7fda26…
05-13 14:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x2069cc…
05-13 14:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x8aa3ec…
05-13 14:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	19	58¢	$11	0xddb080…
05-13 14:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xd2d5e2…
05-13 14:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xd56521…
05-13 13:20:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9cf027…
05-13 13:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xf86284…
05-13 13:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x3419fe…
05-13 13:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x26caf3…
05-13 12:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x326619…
05-13 12:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x43d9cf…
05-13 12:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x2741dc…
05-13 12:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x694a04…