Realized P&L
+$5.78K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.22K
Hit rate
87.2%
Resolved
34,852
Trades
287,969
lifetime
Volume
$7.08M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$234.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-07
last 11-01 08:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 56 days
Categories
Other
67% 88% -$5,766
Politics
29% 84% +$2,322
Sports
2% 93% +$380
Tech
1% 84% +$8,597
Crypto
0% 86% +$81
Pop-Culture
0% 87% +$161
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
56 active days in 12wk • peak 11291 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +18,900 $18,832 100¢ $18.8K +$2 10-29 13:09
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +18,900 $18,742 99¢ $18.8K +$26 10-29 13:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +18,900 $18,481 98¢ $18.6K +$126 10-29 13:09
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +22,161 $15,798 70¢ $15.4K -$396 11-01 08:52
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +16,942 $12,623 80¢ $13.6K +$1,015 10-31 15:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +18,124 $14,335 72¢ $13.1K -$1,195 10-29 13:09
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +14,014 $10,264 78¢ $10.9K +$667 11-01 10:02
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No +11,687 $9,246 82¢ $9.5K +$279 10-31 10:13
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +7,995 $7,635 98¢ $7.9K +$236 10-29 17:42
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +26,626 $7,429 30¢ $7.9K +$426 11-01 08:52
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +8,521 $6,082 74¢ $6.3K +$267 10-31 21:08
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +5,959 $5,933 100¢ $5.9K -$1 10-31 18:56
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +5,959 $5,866 99¢ $5.9K +$36 10-31 18:56
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +7,924 $5,245 68¢ $5.3K +$104 10-31 19:35
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +5,270 $5,262 100¢ $5.3K +$0 10-31 18:56
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No +5,249 $5,113 99¢ $5.2K +$68 10-31 19:49
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +5,199 $5,085 98¢ $5.1K +$28 10-31 19:49
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No +5,265 $4,845 97¢ $5.1K +$259 10-31 19:49
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No +5,331 $5,171 96¢ $5.1K -$77 10-31 19:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +17,240 $4,016 30¢ $5.1K +$1,070 10-29 13:09
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No +5,028 $4,916 99¢ $5.0K +$39 10-31 19:49
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? No +5,133 $4,638 93¢ $4.8K +$136 10-29 13:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +5,323 $5,049 89¢ $4.7K -$325 10-31 19:49
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +5,152 $4,252 92¢ $4.7K +$462 10-31 19:49
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? No +6,967 $4,707 68¢ $4.7K -$4 10-31 10:33
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? No +4,738 $3,293 99¢ $4.7K +$1,381 11-01 04:51
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +6,458 $3,974 68¢ $4.4K +$385 10-29 20:41
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +5,333 $4,027 79¢ $4.2K +$202 10-31 20:24
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +4,119 $4,110 100¢ $4.1K +$3 10-18 05:38
Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +4,119 $4,104 100¢ $4.1K +$4 10-26 02:21