Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$684

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

55.2%

Resolved

1,766

Trades

10,675

lifetime

Volume

$17.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

4 positions

First seen

2026-07-08

last 10-25 23:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 35% -$538

Other

6% 18% -$105

Politics

1% 14% -$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 521 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	+103	$3	4¢	$4	+$1	10-25 23:29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+47	$9	8¢	$4	-$5	10-07 20:09
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+7	$3	44¢	$3	+$0	10-25 23:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	+74	$3	2¢	$2	-$1	10-08 15:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	13	$70	63	63	+0	Up	+$14	10-23 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	13	$69	92	71	+21	Up	+$5	10-23 10:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:35 UTC	10	$65	71	67	+3	Up	+$18	08-21 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	14	$61	41	41	+0	Up	+$3	10-11 19:19
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 17?	6	$59	73	73	+0	Yes	+$39	10-17 11:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	13	$57	44	44	+0	Down	+$8	10-11 19:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	16	$56	53	53	+0	Up	+$8	09-29 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	10	$55	124	63	+62	Up	+$9	10-23 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	11	$53	43	43	+0	Up	+$7	10-11 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	10	$50	49	49	+0	Down	-$2	10-01 20:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 21:10 UTC	11	$49	86	71	+14	Up	+$28	08-16 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	9	$49	57	57	+0	Up	+$13	10-23 13:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	10	$47	35	35	+0	Up	+$3	10-11 21:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 22:25 UTC	9	$46	61	44	+17	Up	+$2	09-17 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	8	$46	215	49	+167	Down	+$4	10-23 10:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	11	$43	30	30	+0	Up	+$3	10-01 18:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 22:05 UTC	14	$43	70	54	+15	Up	+$5	10-04 22:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 11:10 UTC	5	$43	149	49	+100	Up	+$12	09-30 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	7	$42	46	30	+17	Down	-$4	10-11 19:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 22:05 UTC	7	$42	35	35	+0	Down	+$10	09-17 22:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 22:50 UTC	10	$42	105	98	+7	Down	+$29	07-18 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	12	$41	44	37	+7	Down	+$3	09-28 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	11	$40	64	64	+0	Up	+$5	10-15 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	10	$40	41	41	+0	Up	+$7	10-01 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	13	$40	35	35	+0	Up	+$7	10-04 21:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	15	$38	30	28	+2	Up	+$6	09-29 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	15	$38	70	30	+40	Down	+$4	10-11 21:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 22:20 UTC	8	$38	46	43	+3	Up	+$4	09-17 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	9	$38	29	29	+0	Up	+$4	10-01 20:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 20:00 UTC	9	$38	52	39	+13	Up	+$6	09-28 20:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x27c932…
10-25 23:50:35	Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x882a1b…
10-25 23:46:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	29	9¢	$3	0xdb47d6…
10-25 23:46:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7a4845…
10-25 23:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xd44ca9…
10-25 23:40:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x13101c…
10-25 23:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe43375…
10-25 23:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xa05148…
10-25 23:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0x78ec0d…
10-25 23:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0xf4903a…
10-25 23:29:51	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x60187d…
10-25 23:29:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0xaf6b62…
10-25 23:27:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	45	7¢	$3	0x534e0d…
10-25 23:26:33	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xca9055…
10-24 23:39:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xc3f676…
10-24 23:39:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0x8e0003…
10-24 23:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	18	18¢	$3	0x2b907d…
10-24 23:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0xe27da3…
10-24 23:35:24	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	48	6¢	$3	0x50a93b…
10-24 23:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x4f6afe…
10-24 23:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x8ee911…
10-24 23:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xaffc21…
10-24 23:27:47	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	8¢	$2	0x110dd9…
10-24 23:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x9cb916…
10-24 23:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xac6b21…
10-24 23:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7e7aab…
10-24 23:11:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x8a0be1…
10-24 23:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x9d69b8…
10-24 23:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xd27ba6…
10-24 23:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x52403c…
10-24 23:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x77e756…
10-24 23:08:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0xee456a…
10-24 23:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x0528c9…
10-24 23:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x469b71…
10-24 22:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc0f0c1…
10-24 22:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xa60011…
10-24 22:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x31f903…
10-24 22:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0xfade34…
10-24 22:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5bc198…
10-24 22:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x31d025…
10-24 22:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6ce128…
10-24 22:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0xe6683a…
10-24 22:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x33ad12…
10-24 22:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0xff270c…
10-24 22:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	7	66¢	$4	0x672285…
10-24 22:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0xa46493…
10-24 22:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x03bef1…
10-24 22:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x55ea49…
10-24 22:43:35	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	21¢	$5	0xcd4b59…
10-24 22:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0x34361b…
10-24 22:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x106883…
10-24 22:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xf55745…
10-24 22:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x090b4a…
10-24 22:34:30	Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$3	0xa25a77…
10-24 22:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x12c96a…
10-24 22:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xc9400e…
10-24 22:27:18	Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x48d22f…
10-24 22:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x87d564…
10-24 22:25:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x0623f5…
10-24 22:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb74588…
10-24 22:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x5e4b19…
10-24 22:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x5e4af6…
10-24 22:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0xd6eff6…
10-24 22:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x44d88b…
10-24 22:09:54	Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0xe06b10…
10-24 22:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1334f7…
10-24 22:04:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x3a2e53…
10-24 17:26:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0xd7805b…
10-24 17:20:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0xa5b802…
10-24 17:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1bc215…
10-24 17:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0xfe67e7…
10-24 17:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	45¢	$2	0x3fce1b…
10-24 17:15:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	66¢	$4	0x9f159f…
10-24 17:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x7deb73…
10-24 16:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x5d15f9…
10-24 16:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0xb98d99…
10-24 16:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x5562e0…
10-24 16:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0x842cfd…
10-24 16:31:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	43¢	$2	0x82cf8b…
10-24 16:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0xe64fb1…
10-24 16:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x4cdf1e…
10-24 16:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xb4bcc3…
10-24 16:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x27f409…
10-24 16:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x90ac5d…
10-24 16:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x7d93b9…
10-24 16:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x64daa2…
10-24 16:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	7	57¢	$4	0x7f01df…
10-24 16:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x556236…
10-24 16:17:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	14	34¢	$5	0xc1a59f…
10-24 16:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x80a099…
10-24 16:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0xa8cbaf…
10-24 16:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xc4b1f2…
10-24 16:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x138bec…
10-24 16:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x6c7e7a…
10-24 16:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x992801…
10-24 12:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf3bc15…
10-24 12:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe7f215…
10-24 12:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x91caae…
10-24 12:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x706520…
10-24 12:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x835418…