Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$7

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

30.1%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

42 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$93

$425 lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$17

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-27 23:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

96% 69% -$29

Politics

4% 0% -$8

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No		+14	$13	97¢	$13	+$0	10-09 19:38
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes		+12	$5	29¢	$3	-$2	08-18 17:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nflx up or down on march 6 2026	2	$44	25	25	+0	Down	+$3	03-06 21:17
spx up or down on march 6 2026	2	$40	21	21	+0	Down	+$1	03-06 17:48
spx up or down on march 5 2026	2	$38	20	20	+0	Down	+$2	03-05 19:25
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$35	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	03-05 12:52
spx up or down on march 4 2026	2	$30	20	20	+0	Up	+$7	03-04 16:56
will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	3	$27	14	14	+0	open	—	10-27 23:25
spx up or down on march 9 2026	2	$25	14	14	+0	Up	+$1	03-09 17:51
nvda close above 175 on march 9 2026	2	$25	15	15	+0	Yes	+$5	03-09 17:20
meta close above 640 on march 3 2026	2	$22	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	03-03 21:20
spx opens up or down on march 3 2026	2	$22	11	11	+0	Down	+$0	03-03 16:52
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	10-05 20:44
spx up or down on march 10 2026	1	$20	22	0	+22	Down	-$20	03-10 17:11
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	3	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	10-09 19:38
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?	2	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	10-05 20:44
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$12	16	16	+0	Yes	-$8	10-09 19:38
msft up or down on march 9 2026	2	$10	11	11	+0	Up	-$10	03-09 19:59
ndx up or down on march 9 2026	1	$10	15	0	+15	Up	-$10	03-09 18:16
open up or down on march 10 2026	1	$9	11	0	+11	Down	-$9	03-10 17:56
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	08-18 17:15
spx up or down on august 21 2026	2	$3	56	56	+0	Up	+$1	08-21 16:15
msft up or down on august 18 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	08-18 19:21
bitcoin above 56k on march 7	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$1	03-06 21:29
cost quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 05 2026 4pt54	1	$1	14	0	+14	Yes	-$1	03-04 18:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:25:24	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	14	95¢	$14	0x79d592…
10-09 19:38:47	Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x722386…
10-09 19:38:19	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0x2af9cc…
10-05 20:44:31	Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x210ba1…
10-05 20:44:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xb45bd5…
08-21 19:29:45	will argentina make peter thiel a citizen by december 31	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xd078fb…
08-21 16:15:54	spx up or down on august 21 2026	Down	SELL	56	3¢	$2	0x8a2af0…
08-21 15:54:22	spx up or down on august 21 2026	Down	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x9d7623…
08-21 15:52:31	will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x1d9499…
08-21 15:52:12	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x8aded7…
08-21 15:50:34	Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4c8555…
08-18 20:34:30	Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xbdf74a…
08-18 19:21:37	msft up or down on august 18 2026	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x615a37…
08-18 17:43:18	will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xf85460…
08-18 17:22:21	msft up or down on august 18 2026	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfa28dc…
08-18 17:15:04	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4060ab…
08-18 17:13:19	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xe5b881…
03-10 17:56:05	open up or down on march 10 2026	Up	BUY	11	84¢	$9	0x21caf0…
03-10 17:11:09	spx up or down on march 10 2026	Up	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x709eac…
03-09 19:59:33	msft up or down on march 9 2026	Down	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x3526ab…
03-09 18:16:15	ndx up or down on march 9 2026	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xcf69c3…
03-09 17:51:07	spx up or down on march 9 2026	Down	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x234a3d…
03-09 17:23:13	msft up or down on march 9 2026	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xe057ff…
03-09 17:20:33	nvda close above 175 on march 9 2026	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x0c8913…
03-09 17:19:51	spx up or down on march 9 2026	Down	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0xdbfb07…
03-09 00:40:37	nvda close above 175 on march 9 2026	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x3dbc54…
03-06 21:29:35	bitcoin above 56k on march 7	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd30cb2…
03-06 21:17:09	nflx up or down on march 6 2026	Down	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xaff513…
03-06 17:49:23	nflx up or down on march 6 2026	Down	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x143630…
03-06 17:48:11	spx up or down on march 6 2026	Down	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0x3ed506…
03-06 15:06:57	spx up or down on march 6 2026	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xaebcd1…
03-05 19:25:31	spx up or down on march 5 2026	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x0c7983…
03-05 16:54:41	spx up or down on march 5 2026	Down	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x5436f0…
03-05 12:52:39	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	SELL	24	76¢	$18	0x72f5f2…
03-04 20:18:45	will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	24	74¢	$17	0xb388da…
03-04 18:21:45	cost quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 05 2026 4pt54	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xbb47dd…
03-04 16:56:55	spx up or down on march 4 2026	Up	SELL	20	94¢	$18	0xca3d77…
03-04 14:51:35	spx up or down on march 4 2026	Up	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x89d8a9…
03-03 21:20:53	meta close above 640 on march 3 2026	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x03b6f7…
03-03 16:54:49	meta close above 640 on march 3 2026	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x44c364…
03-03 16:52:37	spx opens up or down on march 3 2026	Down	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xeb8f1f…
03-03 12:59:45	spx opens up or down on march 3 2026	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x551353…