Every-Croissant-Credibility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$110

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.0%

Resolved

193

Trades

419

lifetime

Volume

$870

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-21

last 11-01 21:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

76% 65% -$54

Politics

19% 53% -$50

Crypto

4% 50% -$7

Tech

0% 67% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026?	8	$167	601	601	+0	No	-$7	05-26 18:28
Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	12	$66	41	33	+8	No	+$0	05-31 03:44
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	13	$35	22	22	+0	No	+$7	07-21 03:53
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$24	15	15	+0	No	+$4	06-10 22:05
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$23	59	0	+59	Yes	-$23	05-29 22:13
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	11	$18	90	0	+90	Yes	-$18	10-07 17:49
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	6	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	09-07 17:37
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$14	25	25	+0	Yes	-$8	10-26 02:03
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	5	$14	130	130	+0	No	$0	05-26 13:56
Evo Morales arrested by June 30?	11	$12	16	0	+16	No	+$4	06-22 11:31
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26?	3	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$4	05-27 00:57
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by May 31?	3	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$0	05-25 16:10
Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud end in a draw?	2	$10	7	7	+0	Yes	+$4	05-27 23:59
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	5	$9	22	0	+22	Yes	-$9	07-10 02:52
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26?	2	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$2	05-27 03:08
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	5	$8	16	0	+16	Yes	-$8	08-16 06:18
starmer out by july 31 2026	6	$8	15	0	+15	Yes	-$8	06-18 01:05
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	3	$7	5	5	+0	No	+$1	08-25 01:31
will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	4	$7	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	07-24 22:32
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	3	$7	4	4	+0	No	+$1	09-24 21:35
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26?	4	$7	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	05-27 00:28
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	2	$7	32	32	+0	No	-$1	05-23 19:31
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	5	$7	9	0	+9	Yes	-$7	06-17 13:41
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$7	11	11	+0	No	-$1	10-26 02:02
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on August 23?	4	$7	8	5	+3	No	-$1	08-23 21:25
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?	3	$7	4	4	+0	No	+$1	08-23 12:36
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	4	$6	4	4	+0	No	+$0	06-22 00:57
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-27?	2	$6	16	0	+16	No	-$6	05-28 00:43
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	5	$6	9	0	+9	Yes	-$6	08-05 02:33
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	3	$6	8	0	+8	No	+$2	07-21 10:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 21:39:46	Will SC Braga win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x41d935…
11-01 21:38:34	Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8bc0ce…
11-01 21:16:07	Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xba26a7…
11-01 21:08:31	Will RS Berkane win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6d35b5…
11-01 21:06:04	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x339256…
11-01 21:04:33	Will RS Berkane win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x702abb…
11-01 20:56:36	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xb0207a…
11-01 20:55:24	Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x15c0ff…
11-01 20:42:57	Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x4290a3…
11-01 17:50:45	Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xb1a086…
11-01 17:47:54	Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x419778…
11-01 17:47:00	Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0xa94535…
11-01 17:45:36	Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5b59f9…
11-01 17:05:33	Will Vasteraas SK win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x673f1a…
11-01 16:11:24	Will BK Hacken win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc17388…
11-01 16:10:48	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x19172a…
11-01 15:43:52	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb18161…
11-01 15:37:10	Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xaa28fe…
11-01 14:12:13	Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego	Lorenzo Sonego	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xee0e08…
11-01 13:37:03	Will Malmo FF win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc34e77…
11-01 13:34:58	Will SK Brann win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x5558b6…
11-01 11:10:18	Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x816be2…
11-01 11:02:22	Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb2d56e…
11-01 10:16:40	Will PSIS Semarang vs. Persikad Depok end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x960f33…
11-01 09:57:43	Will Psim Yogyakarta win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x4aaa2a…
11-01 03:58:04	Pan Pacific Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x50faac…
11-01 03:57:01	Will Piratas Veracruz vs. CD Tapatio end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6f9f18…
11-01 03:02:40	Will CF Monterrey vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x13ca83…
11-01 03:01:43	Will CF Monterrey vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x7484c0…
11-01 02:53:54	Will Piratas Veracruz vs. CD Tapatio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x6852d4…
11-01 02:31:01	Will Cancun FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x7a2f1c…
11-01 02:21:19	Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x8b29b2…
11-01 02:19:12	Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Instituto AC Córdoba end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xfdf458…
11-01 02:17:52	Will Alacranes de Durango win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xea3b18…
11-01 02:14:57	Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x6993b1…
10-31 21:14:54	Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x3c5c0b…
10-31 20:34:27	Will Vasas FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x6bc40a…
10-31 20:06:52	M25 Las Vegas, NV: Jerry Roddick vs Nikita Filin	Jerry Roddick	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x59418c…
10-31 19:51:36	Will Vasas FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf908dd…
10-31 19:48:45	Will UC Sampdoria win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1c3eb8…
10-31 19:28:07	Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xeb5799…
10-31 06:22:45	Pan Pacific Open: Diana Shnaider vs Mia Pohankova	Diana Shnaider	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x38ffa6…
10-31 06:19:43	Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf4de71…
10-31 05:34:39	Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x15093b…
10-26 15:47:57	Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Quentin Halys	Holger Rune	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x0212d6…
10-26 15:44:21	Will Mohun Bagan Super Giant win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x91705e…
10-26 15:40:12	Will FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x2c86e2…
10-26 15:32:54	Will Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. PSM Makassar end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb25132…
10-26 15:31:45	Will FK Neftchi Fargona vs. Al-Ittihad Club end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x88f75c…
10-26 15:31:11	Will Navbahor win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x605564…
10-26 15:17:09	Will Navbahor win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc77bdc…
10-26 15:09:35	Will Persija Jakarta win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc39b95…
10-26 13:42:30	Will Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. PSM Makassar end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4ffde1…
10-26 13:41:30	Will Persija Jakarta win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1d5f95…
10-26 10:56:33	Ningbo: Rigele Te vs Mert Alkaya	Mert Alkaya	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x8f541d…
10-26 10:54:35	Brest: Michael Geerts vs Niels McDonald	Niels McDonald	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xa90635…
10-26 10:49:48	Guangzhou Open: Harriet Dart vs Tatiana Prozorova	Harriet Dart	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xfbc2d5…
10-26 10:00:42	Guangzhou Open: Harriet Dart vs Tatiana Prozorova	Harriet Dart	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x607f27…
10-26 09:24:11	Seoul: Jang-Jun Kim vs Billy Harris	Billy Harris	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3d2036…
10-26 08:25:02	Ningbo: Ognjen Milic vs Kaichi Uchida	Kaichi Uchida	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe88237…
10-26 07:39:00	Seoul: Lloyd Harris vs Juncheng Shang	Lloyd Harris	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x78d1ef…
10-26 07:34:08	Guangzhou Open: Han Shi vs Alevtina Ibragimova	Han Shi	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa37208…
10-26 07:21:14	Seoul: Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang	Marin Cilic	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x5ceb90…
10-26 06:54:26	Seoul: Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang	Marin Cilic	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x40193e…
10-26 06:53:30	Seoul: Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang	Marin Cilic	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xe6a5a8…
10-26 06:49:14	Seoul: Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang	Marin Cilic	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xce605f…
10-26 05:57:42	Pan Pacific Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Elise Mertens	Elise Mertens	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x441991…
10-26 05:50:44	Guangzhou Open: Daria Snigur vs Anna Bondar	Anna Bondar	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x94ac9c…
10-26 03:08:45	Will Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9944fd…
10-26 03:01:03	Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x73c343…
10-26 02:03:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xc21937…
10-26 02:02:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xb59ad3…
10-25 23:08:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xcb6baa…
10-25 22:56:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x274056…
10-25 22:52:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x70e9b1…
10-25 22:47:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x1aa0e7…
10-25 22:45:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x1f9090…
10-25 18:16:57	Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0xeb1b02…
10-18 04:16:21	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xfc1289…
10-13 19:54:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x479a51…
10-13 19:53:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	22	13¢	$3	0x0b9118…
10-07 17:49:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xcefafb…
10-07 17:49:12	Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x8eb21d…
10-07 17:46:25	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xd46eb0…
09-27 16:35:47	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd0e4ea…
09-27 16:26:24	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x269e76…
09-24 21:36:08	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xe1607e…
09-24 21:35:53	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x15e36a…
09-24 21:35:09	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xc751fb…
09-24 02:08:35	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb689be…
09-24 02:07:41	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xc0c363…
09-23 14:23:48	gemini 4pt0 released by october 31 2026	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xfb94b1…
09-23 14:21:04	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	No	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xa61282…
09-22 12:33:28	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x480fb7…
09-22 12:32:55	Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb23c0a…
09-21 22:09:52	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0xaa52cf…
09-20 15:42:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xaf5cae…
09-20 01:43:31	Evo Morales arrested by September 30?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0xaf5c0b…
09-14 14:47:13	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb24295…
09-10 05:16:30	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xd24501…