Breakable-Intuition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$394

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

127

lifetime

Volume

$102.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$807

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-14 02:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 100% +$391

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Other

0% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 2	33	$15.4K	7,789	7,593	+196	No	+$15	01-02 13:53
bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	7	$8.7K	8,703	0	+8,703	Up	+$48	07-26 15:02
bitcoin up or down on july 24 2026	3	$8.6K	8,600	0	+8,600	Down	+$26	07-24 15:01
bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 1am et	6	$8.2K	8,200	0	+8,200	Down	+$29	08-02 05:47
bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 1am et	5	$8.0K	8,000	0	+8,000	Down	+$24	07-26 05:54
bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 4am et	4	$8.0K	8,000	0	+8,000	Down	+$28	08-02 08:39
bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	7	$8.0K	8,000	0	+8,000	Up	+$40	07-24 06:52
bitcoin up or down on august 1 2026	6	$8.0K	8,001	0	+8,001	Up	+$48	08-01 15:06
bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 1am et	4	$7.9K	8,000	0	+8,000	Down	+$52	07-25 05:46
bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 8pm et	6	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	Up	+$18	07-26 00:55
bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 8pm et	2	$4.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	Down	+$16	07-27 00:49
bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	7	$2.0K	2,018	0	+2,018	Down	+$6	07-31 06:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8PM ET	4	$2.0K	2,005	0	+2,005	Up	+$6	07-29 00:56
bitcoin up or down august 3 2026 8pm et	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	Down	+$6	08-04 00:48
bitcoin up or down july 27 2026 8pm et	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	Down	+$6	07-28 00:56
bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 12am et	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	Up	+$8	08-04 04:43
bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	8	$1.5K	1,497	0	+1,497	Down	+$13	07-28 13:50
bitcoin up or down on july 31 2026	3	$416	418	0	+418	Down	+$2	07-31 14:40
will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	02-10 05:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	04-09 05:09
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-16 00:28
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	03-08 11:33
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	02-10 05:08
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	04-09 05:09
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	03-08 11:33
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	05-16 00:28
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	06-06 02:57
highest temperature in tokyo on april 10 2026 12corbelow	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	04-09 05:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	10-14 02:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	1	$1	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	09-03 00:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 02:57:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xf8c57a…
09-03 00:17:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$1	0x700af0…
08-04 05:46:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x255891…
08-04 04:43:21	bitcoin up or down august 4 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0x0dcef4…
08-04 00:48:45	bitcoin up or down august 3 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0xf0698c…
08-02 08:39:29	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0xbe23d3…
08-02 08:39:15	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0xbf6099…
08-02 08:38:57	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0xd15a12…
08-02 08:38:42	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0xbfd689…
08-02 05:47:57	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xc313f9…
08-02 05:45:02	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x3dde21…
08-02 05:44:48	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0xda2f91…
08-02 05:43:56	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x4ed908…
08-02 05:43:09	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	1,910	100¢	$1,902	0x08af46…
08-02 05:42:51	bitcoin up or down august 2 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0xe24cb6…
08-01 15:06:54	bitcoin up or down on august 1 2026	Up	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0x0ebd84…
08-01 15:06:38	bitcoin up or down on august 1 2026	Up	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x47c41a…
08-01 15:06:18	bitcoin up or down on august 1 2026	Up	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0xef2469…
08-01 15:05:59	bitcoin up or down on august 1 2026	Up	BUY	2,001	99¢	$1,989	0x21d5da…
08-01 15:05:33	bitcoin up or down on august 1 2026	Up	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x63f38d…
08-01 15:05:09	bitcoin up or down on august 1 2026	Up	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x6c6694…
07-31 14:40:44	bitcoin up or down on july 31 2026	Down	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xcadc1c…
07-31 14:26:26	bitcoin up or down on july 31 2026	Down	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xfef204…
07-31 14:26:11	bitcoin up or down on july 31 2026	Down	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xb06f52…
07-31 06:58:51	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x639f90…
07-31 06:58:26	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8a8a9b…
07-31 06:58:21	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x02cbb4…
07-31 06:58:15	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	439	100¢	$437	0xde23b9…
07-31 06:57:47	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x7b804c…
07-31 06:57:32	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x4f66fc…
07-31 06:56:56	bitcoin up or down july 31 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	494	100¢	$492	0x5054c0…
07-29 00:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	91	100¢	$90	0x74eb38…
07-29 00:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf8d107…
07-29 00:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x322b0c…
07-29 00:56:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	1,889	100¢	$1,884	0xae4ae2…
07-28 13:50:56	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xe690a1…
07-28 13:50:08	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x7fa756…
07-28 13:49:46	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x42aa57…
07-28 13:49:04	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x7bf502…
07-28 13:48:17	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	116	99¢	$115	0xb4bbef…
07-28 13:45:55	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xfcf433…
07-28 13:40:40	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x075d5f…
07-28 13:33:43	bitcoin up or down on july 28 2026	Down	BUY	181	98¢	$178	0x1d7fc3…
07-28 00:56:55	bitcoin up or down july 27 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x68303e…
07-27 00:49:57	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0x457964…
07-27 00:49:18	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0xb84ac8…
07-26 15:02:30	bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	Up	BUY	350	100¢	$349	0x558f10…
07-26 15:00:39	bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	Up	BUY	260	100¢	$259	0xf42860…
07-26 15:00:16	bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	Up	BUY	93	100¢	$92	0xd3665e…
07-26 14:53:15	bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	Up	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0x013494…
07-26 14:52:58	bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	Up	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x3b9a19…
07-26 14:52:45	bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	Up	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x1c51e7…
07-26 14:52:25	bitcoin up or down on july 26 2026	Up	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x4fd56f…
07-26 05:54:04	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xd27b66…
07-26 05:54:04	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	1,968	100¢	$1,962	0x6cf7d2…
07-26 05:53:51	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x274293…
07-26 05:53:15	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x615a86…
07-26 05:53:01	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x3e6d74…
07-26 00:55:55	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x21f913…
07-26 00:55:24	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	1,901	100¢	$1,895	0xddde53…
07-26 00:55:03	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	68	100¢	$68	0x2332f6…
07-26 00:54:55	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xcfdb59…
07-26 00:54:39	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	1,901	100¢	$1,895	0x67bea0…
07-26 00:54:21	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x633f27…
07-25 05:46:30	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0x2fd69b…
07-25 05:46:16	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0xb63581…
07-25 05:46:01	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0x7cf263…
07-25 05:45:27	bitcoin up or down july 25 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0xcb0b0e…
07-24 15:01:25	bitcoin up or down on july 24 2026	Down	BUY	600	100¢	$598	0x77e44b…
07-24 15:01:12	bitcoin up or down on july 24 2026	Down	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,991	0x217db4…
07-24 15:00:57	bitcoin up or down on july 24 2026	Down	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,985	0x3e6b37…
07-24 06:52:15	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$16	0xa721d3…
07-24 06:51:52	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc2d6aa…
07-24 06:51:48	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x219c06…
07-24 06:51:43	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	1,950	100¢	$1,940	0xec6826…
07-24 06:51:28	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0xe437a6…
07-24 06:51:15	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0xff2e8a…
07-24 06:51:01	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0x2471b7…
06-06 02:58:37	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x277034…
06-06 02:58:13	Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x56f11f…
06-06 02:57:58	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3a0409…
05-16 00:29:15	Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 23?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6a364a…
05-16 00:28:50	Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x6b8fea…
05-16 00:28:31	Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$4	0xf22f4b…
04-09 05:10:07	highest temperature in tokyo on april 10 2026 12corbelow	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x78212d…
04-09 05:09:27	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x75d6fa…
04-09 05:09:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$4	0x03542c…
03-08 11:34:35	will manuel saavedra win the 2026 santa cruz de la sierra mayoral election	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7fe8bc…
03-08 11:33:35	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x6b6289…
03-08 11:33:19	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xaa30a3…
02-10 05:08:47	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on february 13	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xfe8eb3…
02-10 05:08:25	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x1b1336…
02-10 05:08:13	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd02022…
01-03 00:09:21	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd24643…
01-02 13:53:11	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 2	No	SELL	484	100¢	$483	0x34b6cf…
01-02 13:52:47	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 2	No	SELL	840	100¢	$839	0x05ba2f…
01-02 13:48:23	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 2	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0x7b3c11…
01-02 13:47:45	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 2	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x36bf8a…
01-02 13:47:05	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 2	No	SELL	126	100¢	$126	0x0decee…
01-02 13:46:41	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 2	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x42b4fa…